Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Roger Rambo]

Japan seems to be considering following South Korea's example in terms of lending the United States artillery ammunition in order to allow the US to transfer more of their own stocks to Ukraine.

There's a lot of interesting implications about this when considered in relation to the American and the EU own efforts being made to ramp up artillery shell production. Volume in artillery fire has been one of Russia's big advantages in this conflict, but by now even they are needing to employ a lot of shell rationing similar to the Ukrainians in order to prioritize their artillery fires. I kinda of wonder long term how long Russia can maintain their artillery advantage given the limits of their own MIC, and limited number of partners willing to supply them large scale stock.

edit: So this is very interesting. Apparently due to so much demand for replacement heavy equipment getting donated to Ukraine, Israel is in the pretty far into an arms deal with two separate country (one of which is in Europe) to potentially export their surplus Mark 2/3 Merkava Main Battle tanks. News is splashing across a lot of english language new sources, and an Israeli Hebrew source is putting the number of tanks in this deal as over 200.

While I'm not sure this translates into Merkava tanks appearing in Ukraine itself, it seems like there are a lot of countries who could hand over more of their Soviet Era tanks if decent quality Merkava tanks could be slotted in as replacements.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...as_spotted_in/

Can find this photo of Syrians under Russian command.

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/Blackrussiantv/s...99982639067136

There's a video posted (originally from Telegram as likely bet) that a pro-Russian separatist is using a PTRS-41 during training. Likely trying to bag a reward for taking out a Western-made tank.

[Yu Ominae]

Videos of the Chongar Bridge in Crimea attacked.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...llar_due_to_a/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...that_connects/

Note that they're taken from the Russian side of Crimea.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

Videos of the Chongar Bridge in Crimea attacked.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...llar_due_to_a/

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...that_connects/

Note that they're taken from the Russian side of Crimea.

Heard the damage was bad enough that they're going to have to close the bridge down for a few weeks. Saw some interesting map about how this complicates resupply coming out of Crimea.

Spoiler for Map:

edit: Uuuuuuuuuuuh....Prighozin is claiming that the Regular Russian Army bombed Wagner, and now he's saying he's declaring war against the Russian MOD and Shoigu.

The Wagner mercenary chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has claimed that a Russian rocket attack killed scores of his fighters, vowing to take “revenge” in an unprecedented escalation of infighting among Russia’s elite.

In a series of extraordinary audio messages released late on Friday, Prigozhin appeared to declare war on the Russian military leadership.

“Wagner Commanders’ Council made a decision: the evil brought by the military leadership of the country must be stopped,” he said.

“Those, who destroyed today our guys, who destroyed tens, tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers will be punished. I’m asking: no one resist,” Prigozhin said.

I'm not sure if this is actually shit going down. But I'm struggling to comprehend why Wagner and the Russian MOD would LARP a declaration of war on eachother.

[ramlaen]

Shit is getting wierd, there appears to be a confrontation brewing between Wagner and the Russian MoD.

Putin is aware of the situation unfolding around Prigozhin, all necessary measures are being taken, Peskov said.

[Ithekro]

So history rhymes, feels like 1917.

[Jaden]

I don't know if the stories of Wagner getting attacked by regular Russian army are true, but it does seem like Wagner's role in the war has been diminished, now that Russia is looking to freeze the conflict.

It's not sitting well with Prigozhin, who wanted to score a high and solid position in the Kremlin hierarchy...instead his army has been used as cannon fodder, and he's getting the cold shoulder from his superiors.

I doubt he will accomplish anything with his threats, and it's also dubious whether many of those 25k men would follow him on another fool's errand.

Still, a serious possibility of internal violent conflict...and of Wagners wanting to defect to the west.

[Renegade334]

^-- Also to be taken into account is the fact that Prigozhin publicly resisted the government's edict to put all PMCs directly under state control. Prigozhin's been toeing the line for too long already, going as far as presenting himself as the "better" champion of Russian interests in Ukraine while taking to Telegram to belittle Shoigu and his power base on an almost daily basis. Then there are reports of Wagner operators getting into either shootouts or fisticuffs with regular RU army members and/or police -- nothing that would endear him further to the Russian ministry of defense.

There is only so much of his thinly veiled imprecations and free electron status that either Putin or Shoigu can tolerate. At some point, either he shuts up and gets in line with the rest of the Kremlin cronies or he exits stage left. Any accident can be arranged - hell, I'm surprised the Kremlin hasn't openly dismissed this as this being a "stray Storm Shadow hit" and told him to suck it up.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Jaden

...and of Wagners wanting to defect to the west.

I wouldn't put it beside warner/putin all this being a big charade for the wagner group to "defect" to the west, fight (for a fee) for Ukraine, win back some territory and at the right time, bakstab the Ukranian army. It would be a rather convulted ploy, but at the level of desperation putin is atm I would not rule it out.

[Renegade334]

Way too convoluted and there's waaaaaay too much bad blood between the UA and Wagner for both sides to settle into an uneasy "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" status quo and/or team-up. Prigozhin's a hard-bitten nationalist; he's not going to do an about-face and just leave Ukraine (including Donbas, Crimea and Luhansk) after all the losses he's incurred, either - he's susceptible to the so-called "sunk cost fallacy", even though one of his latest videos does suggest he's prepping up for a retreat out of Ukraine by directly gainsaying the Kremlin's claim that Ukraine was becoming a threat to Russian national security by turning itself into a NATO stooge. Whether he's already laying the groundwork for future blame games or simply looking to publicly embarrass Shoigu by torpedoing the conflict's official cover story, is uncertain. In the end, most of what he says does not necessarily reflect his true thoughts; it's all mere posturing for the camera.

But, to sum it up...either:
1. The artillery strike was Shoigu's attempt to bring Wagner to heel by taking out its commanders by dint of an "unfortunate" blue-on-blue incident, incidentally paving the way for a forced integration into the armed forces.
2. The notoriously dysfunctional RU artillery forces actually did commit accidental friendly fire -- by no means the first time they've done so.
3. Prigozhin just set up a false flag op to justify what is shaping up (or at least what the FSB is now openly calling as such) as a coup d'état. It's entirely possible that the aftermath video that's currently making the rounds is completely staged.

That said: 25,000 mercs notoriously suffering from a chronic shortage of ammo versus the rest of the Russian forces plus the intelligence community and the Rosgvardia, both of which lie firmly under Putin's thumb? Somebody please take note of the moonshine Prigozhin's been drinking - it needs to be outlawed ASAP.


Whatever the real case between the RU army and Wagner may be...

YouTube

https://youtu.be/XKdJ6DnPhzk

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Such strange times we live in, truly... :-/


EDIT: well, what a sh**show. This is starting to look like your classic "false flag followed by coup" pattern -- honestly, that forest footage looks rather dubious.

[Guardian Enzo]

Things in Moscow have a very "last days of Rome" feel to them at the moment. With the important caveat that Rome didn't have nuclear weapons.

[Renegade334]

Well, all eyes are on Rostov right now - it's where the first contact between Wagnerians and loyalists is expected...but the road from there to Moscow is a long one, and there are already APCs being mustered near cities' main streets, and police checkpoints being set up. It's not going to be pretty.

I'm sure Prigozhin is hoping for a Hundred Days scenario with him being the second Napoleon, but dreams only carry you so far. For those unfamiliar with this episode of European history, the "Cent Jours" is the infamous period wherein Napoleon Bonaparte returned to France from his imposed exile on the island of Elba and made his grand entrance back in Paris; of note is the fact that upon landfall he was mostly met with either hostility or distrust but, by the time he set foot in the French capital city, he had amassed an army of political followers and admirers and the press had changed its tune and was shamelessly lauding him as "the Emperor, returned".

Rumor has it that Gerasimov just asked the VKS to execute airstrikes/strafing runs on Wagner's incoming vehicle columns but the pilots refused. Take all of this with a HUGE grain of salt, though.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

That said: 25,000 mercs notoriously suffering from a chronic shortage of ammo versus the rest of the Russian forces plus the intelligence community and the Rosgvardia, both of which lie firmly under Putin's thumb? Somebody please take note of the moonshine Prigozhin's been drinking - it needs to be outlawed ASAP.

Wagner is low on ammo in the context of how much artillery ammo you need to expend suppress determined military formations with their own artillery and heavy weapons dug into well fortified urban areas and trench networks. Rosgvardia riot cops are going to be a speed bump if Wagner has their AFV elements in the vanguard. If Wagner is going all in on this, then the Kremlin probably needs regular military formations to stop them...and a lot of those guys are busy dealing with Ukraine's counteroffensive in Southern Ukraine.

That said. Wagner defo has the deck stacked against them, and this IS probably a desperation move on their part. My best guess is that Prighozin is paranoid about getting tossed out a window in his future, and the Wagner elites are paranoid that Russia's MOD plans to categorize them as expendable troops in the same way Wagner has treated their own convict soldier. They might be figuring that their odds aren't too much worse going for a coup, and they have a lot better rewards if they succeed.

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...29891499749376

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...46508044546048

Mobilization of Wagner in Russia. Not confirmed when this is starting.

----

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...5e6b7d199fdb83

Another update. FSB is calling for Wagner employees to "detain" anyone who support Prigozhin.

[Jaden]

Putin holds press conference, sides with Shoigu, promises a strong response to suppress the insurrectionists.

Wagner on TG: Putin made the wrong choice, we will have a new president soon.

Well, that escalated quickly.

[Renegade334]

Uh-oh. Shots fired: https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1672503016703016961

The Fighter Bomber channel appears to confirm Prigozhin's claims that Wagner shot down multiple Russian Air Force helicopters this morning, saying that two Mi-8MTPR (Rychag-AV EW) and a Mi-35 helicopter were shot down

Crews still seem to be alive, though. There are also rumors that a whole RU SF brigade (the 22nd SFB) sided with Prigozhin along with some border guards --- as usual, take this with a healthy dose of salt.

Zelensky must be laughing his ass off in Kiev ATM.

[MeoTwister5]

Is this technically classified as a civil war despite Wagner being a PMC?

[Renegade334]

"Mutiny" is the word being bandied about. For now there doesn't seem to be any major confirmed clashes; on the contrary, both Wagner and the armed forces seem to be giving each other a wide berth (the great majority of Wagner personnel are ex-military, btw, which could account for some of the armed forces' reticence to directly confront their former colleagues -- OTOH, most of the surviving "convict volunteers" have already served their six months and returned to Russia as free men, and are not guaranteed to take up arms for Prigozhin).

It is not a civil war.
Yet.
And it's uncertain whether Prigozhin will live long enough to make it a true civil war.

[MeoTwister5]

I guess the other question to be asked is how much of a loss to Russia's war effort will result if the entirety of Wagner is lost or refuses to fight any more under Putin. I would suppose that Wagner's contribution to the fighting is not insignificant.