AnimeSuki Forums

Sugetsu · 2020-03-17, 12:26

Well folks, I hope I am wrong on this, but I believe that the next economic great recession has arrived. I believe that this recession will make the 2008 recession look like child's play.

While I always believed that the virus in itself is a tragedy for the world, I was more scared of the real tragedy; its impact on the global economy. This great recession is going to bring about way more tragedy and death than the virus alone ever could, specially in countries with weak governments and poor social safety nets, such as the US. Countries such as Taiwan, Japan or China have fared much better both financially and socially, but to me this is no surprise as those countries posses strong governments and safety nets.

In these 2 weeks the US has just dumped a combined 2 trillion dollars trying to shore up the markets to no avail. In other words, the stock market and the big financial institutions have received a massive bail out and it was useless.

Meanwhile, poor and middle class America has not received any meaningful help to improve their ability to survive the economic impact of the virus.
- There are no freezes on Mortgages, rent, credit card debt or student loans.
- There are no free treatments for those infected with the virus.
- Testing kits are not readily available.
- There is no form of tax relief or benefits for people dependent on the "gig economy", such as waiters, Uber drivers or independent contractors.
- Congress is still bickering about "how we pay for" emergency legislation to help US citizens. The proposed legislation does not include any of the previsions I raised above; it merely scratches the surface by only helping people who have full time jobs or have families. It will provide tax relief, unemployment benefits and extended pay sick and family leave.

COVID-19 has shed light in the weaknesses of the American system. The country's priorities are skewed towards its oligarchy, so much so that is willing to dump trillions of dollars to bail out wall street without asking (The now memorable question) "how are you going to pay for it?". However, when it comes to helping the average Joe, the government and the establishment is always very concerned about costs. It is as Bernie Sanders says: Socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor. In case anyone didn't notice; 2 trillions dollars is more than enough to help the US population with their basic needs for at least a month.

Not everything is doom and gloom however. The case for a reform to the financial and social systems in the US has never been stronger, so much so that big ideas, such as Universal health care or universal basic income are being seriously evaluated by the some government officials. In fact, news of the White house considering sending every US citizen a check to help them survive this crisis broke while I was writing this post.

PS: Please try to keep this discussion civil as stated by the forum rules. I understand I have voiced my own opinion on this situation but by no means I meant to offend any one.

James Rye · 2020-03-17, 16:58

Man, if only I was rich to buy stocks after the bottom is reached in a couple months. I would be even richer. So I just stay poor while the rich get richer while they wait on their private islands for this pandemic to blow over. :c

ramlaen · 2020-03-17, 17:33

Let us not fan ignorance of why some countries are doing better than others, there are reasons why South Korea is not getting reamed like Italy.

coded321 · 2020-03-17, 17:55

^? You're not going to enlighten us on the reasons why countries like south korea are magnitudes more competent than the u.s?

Sugetsu · 2020-03-17, 18:08

^ This is a different topic, but I posted a very detailed video as to why Italy is doing so poorly with regards to the virus here.

What really matters is that countries have safety nets in place so that the most vulnerable among us do not bear the brunt of the mistakes of those atop the food chain. Now, if those safety nets are not sprung soon under American society we can only expect major chaos and suffering from this crisis.

The time for Any Rand, Lassie fare economics and Orwellian society is over. The US have been attempting to follow that economic philosophy for 40 years and it has only made things much worse. I have no doubt that this economic collapse will only hasten the clamors for major social reforms. FDR politics will make a come back sooner rather than later.

coded321 · 2020-03-17, 18:29

Sadly, we're on track to electing a Democrat who states "Nothing will fundamentally change". Ironically, if things become bad enough, trump might become desperate enough to be willing to implement socialist policies to save his election chances.

Magin · 2020-03-17, 18:42

This is the make-or-break moment for America. Without going too heavily into things... well, first, we're now past our "golden age" (if we even had one to begin with), meaning that the statement of how we're in a period without any major wars or illness is over. Although war was tried a few times, it's the illness part that killed it for us. And for the recession... here's the weird thing. Maybe because i was in my second year of college back then and my family already had housing and cars under control... but I've never seen the actual supposed events of 2008 take place. I get that homes were apparently foreclosed on; but I personally never saw that anywhere in my hometown. So even though there's a lot of comparison to 2008, I just... don't get it.

The ultimate question now, is, who will this motivate? I already talked about it the politics thread, but let me slightly modify for this thread: will Americans finally realize the cliff they're at the edge of is breaking, or will many continue to think that because the talking heads say X, Y, and Z that they'll continue to say "everything will be fine"? I'm actually thinking of a quote attributed to Winston Churchill: "Americans will always come through, after they've tried everything else." Technically speaking, we're still at a point where we haven't tried "everything else", and let's just say that "everything else" involves America looking like the French Revolution.

Psyco Diver · 2020-03-18, 09:34

They haven't burst any bubble yet, this down turn is different from most recessions because usually a bubble burst, this time is because people are afraid of spending money because of this virus.

A bubble burst will usually cause the same thing with people not spending money but this it's very different because of the cause and I'm not sure of any time in history that this has happened

James Rye · 2020-03-18, 13:00

Well, all gains under Trump's presidency are gone, finito. Fell even more during his speech when he said he signed the defense production act.

Key Board · 2020-03-18, 22:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by James Rye

Well, all gains under Trump's presidency are gone, finito. Fell even more during his speech when he said he signed the defense production act.

Wow, it's almost as if the stock market gains are a sham that doesn't reflect the true economic health of the country.

//

mangamuscle · 2020-03-18, 22:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Key Board

Wow, it's almost as if the stock market gains are a sham that doesn't reflect the true economic health of the country.

Never did, stock were pumped artificially high with money from the tax cuts (for the wealthy), the super low fed interest rates (that should have increased every year trump was in office) and lately the fed buying off corporate debt.

Basically all the arsenal an economy could use in time of recession has been dilapidated before the recession started. Now they are going to increase the deficit with an ill devised rescue plan and one more and the simpsons will again have predicted the future.

incoming trump spinster in 5 ... 4 ... 3 ...

Sugetsu · 2020-03-19, 12:23

I don't believe this, but the republicans have outflanked the Democratic leadership on the left in Universal Basic Income.

Pelosi is against UBI

But don't worry, the GOP are just as bad. Republican senators unanimously vote against Paid sick Leave for all workers.

This is what happens in a government ruled by oligarchs; when it comes to helping the common folk they always got to be careful with spending, but when it comes to bailing out the airlines nobody bats an eye. Here is a video on this very subject from a channel that I follow religiously.

YouTube

https://youtu.be/EQ2NHkX57Yk

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Toukairin · 2020-03-19, 13:56

For whatever "achievements" she has had to her resume as a parliamentarian, it is time for Pelosi to retire and pass the torch to someone who would be more aggressive on pushing the progressive agenda at a time when people need that kind of financial support more than ever.

mangamuscle · 2020-03-20, 13:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Toukairin

For whatever "achievements" she has had to her resume as a parliamentarian, it is time for Pelosi to retire and pass the torch to someone who would be more aggressive on pushing the progressive agenda at a time when people need that kind of financial support more than ever.

Surely you must be joking, with trump an old man (that might have a stroke any day thanks to his cocaine abuse) and pence a puppet that should go to prison once his boss is out of the picture, she is next in line for the white house, think of her as gollum from LotR, she wants her precious and after being cockblocked for years, she is closer than ever.

**monir** · 2020-03-21, 10:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Key Board

Wow, it's almost as if the stock market gains are a sham that doesn't reflect the true economic health of the country.

//

It can be used as reference point to gauge the impact however. Some of the most oversold stocks are Airlines, Hospitality, Cruise and etc. The indication is the millions of jobs that are about to be lost as evident from the huge jump in unemployment benefit claims.

ramlaen · 2020-03-23, 14:17

YouTube

https://youtu.be/GXmAKY7Yq_U

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

After blocking a bipartisan bill that was 'too bloated' with pork, Pelosi's bill in the House is over twice the page count. Unprecedented collective bargaining powers for unions, fuel emissions standards for airlines and wind/solar tax credits are key issues for dealing with Coronavirus.

Sugetsu · 2020-03-23, 20:59

^ Both GOP or DEMs are looking out for their top donors that's all. The GOP bill was horrible, and it is no surprise that DEMs aren't doing any better. Just like I said, both parties have sold out to special interests and only an FDR type president could get us out of this miss. It is really too bad there next 4 years are going to be just as horrible if not more, regardless of Trump or Biden being office.

Watch this analysis from a republican on the GOP bill:

YouTube

https://youtu.be/gxuEhaf_X0c

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Than the 1930's great depression.

ramlaen · 2020-03-23, 23:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sugetsu

^ Both GOP or DEMs are looking out for their top donors that's all. The GOP bill was horrible, and it is no surprise that DEMs aren't doing any better.

The GOP bill was fine and had bipartisan support until Democrat leadership decided to, wait for it, not let a crisis go to waste and hold Americans hostage in order to demand an ideological wish list.

Quote:

only an FDR type president could get us out of this miss

Stagnate the economy until a world war saves it? Bernie supporters turning FDR into a religious figure is sort of cringy.

Ithekro · 2020-03-23, 23:55

A steady, yet stagnate economy is better than a rapidly collapsing economy.

ramlaen · 2020-03-24, 00:03

And allowing your economy to recover after stopping what caused it to collapse is even better, not that the cause of the Great Depression and a global pandemic are comparable in any way.

2020-03-17, 12:26	Link #1
Sugetsu Kurumada's lost child Join Date: Nov 2003	The next economic crash is here, COVID 19 has burst the bubble Well folks, I hope I am wrong on this, but I believe that the next economic great recession has arrived. I believe that this recession will make the 2008 recession look like child's play. While I always believed that the virus in itself is a tragedy for the world, I was more scared of the real tragedy; its impact on the global economy. This great recession is going to bring about way more tragedy and death than the virus alone ever could, specially in countries with weak governments and poor social safety nets, such as the US. Countries such as Taiwan, Japan or China have fared much better both financially and socially, but to me this is no surprise as those countries posses strong governments and safety nets. In these 2 weeks the US has just dumped a combined 2 trillion dollars trying to shore up the markets to no avail. In other words, the stock market and the big financial institutions have received a massive bail out and it was useless. Meanwhile, poor and middle class America has not received any meaningful help to improve their ability to survive the economic impact of the virus. - There are no freezes on Mortgages, rent, credit card debt or student loans. - There are no free treatments for those infected with the virus. - Testing kits are not readily available. - There is no form of tax relief or benefits for people dependent on the "gig economy", such as waiters, Uber drivers or independent contractors. - Congress is still bickering about "how we pay for" emergency legislation to help US citizens. The proposed legislation does not include any of the previsions I raised above; it merely scratches the surface by only helping people who have full time jobs or have families. It will provide tax relief, unemployment benefits and extended pay sick and family leave. COVID-19 has shed light in the weaknesses of the American system. The country's priorities are skewed towards its oligarchy, so much so that is willing to dump trillions of dollars to bail out wall street without asking (The now memorable question) "how are you going to pay for it?". However, when it comes to helping the average Joe, the government and the establishment is always very concerned about costs. It is as Bernie Sanders says: Socialism for the rich and rugged individualism for the poor. In case anyone didn't notice; 2 trillions dollars is more than enough to help the US population with their basic needs for at least a month. Not everything is doom and gloom however. The case for a reform to the financial and social systems in the US has never been stronger, so much so that big ideas, such as Universal health care or universal basic income are being seriously evaluated by the some government officials. In fact, news of the White house considering sending every US citizen a check to help them survive this crisis broke while I was writing this post. PS: Please try to keep this discussion civil as stated by the forum rules. I understand I have voiced my own opinion on this situation but by no means I meant to offend any one. __________________ "If you educate people, you cannot control them." ~Jacque Fresco

2020-03-17, 16:58	Link #2
James Rye Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Germany	Man, if only I was rich to buy stocks after the bottom is reached in a couple months. I would be even richer. So I just stay poor while the rich get richer while they wait on their private islands for this pandemic to blow over. :c __________________

2020-03-17, 17:55	Link #4
coded321 He Who Games Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: the virtual world	^? You're not going to enlighten us on the reasons why countries like south korea are magnitudes more competent than the u.s? Last edited by coded321; 2020-03-17 at 21:51.

2020-03-17, 18:08	Link #5
Sugetsu Kurumada's lost child Join Date: Nov 2003	^ This is a different topic, but I posted a very detailed video as to why Italy is doing so poorly with regards to the virus here. What really matters is that countries have safety nets in place so that the most vulnerable among us do not bear the brunt of the mistakes of those atop the food chain. Now, if those safety nets are not sprung soon under American society we can only expect major chaos and suffering from this crisis. The time for Any Rand, Lassie fare economics and Orwellian society is over. The US have been attempting to follow that economic philosophy for 40 years and it has only made things much worse. I have no doubt that this economic collapse will only hasten the clamors for major social reforms. FDR politics will make a come back sooner rather than later. __________________ "If you educate people, you cannot control them." ~Jacque Fresco

2020-03-17, 18:42	Link #7
Magin #1 Akashiya Moka Fan Author Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: Where magic is real Age: 35	This is the make-or-break moment for America. Without going too heavily into things... well, first, we're now past our "golden age" (if we even had one to begin with), meaning that the statement of how we're in a period without any major wars or illness is over. Although war was tried a few times, it's the illness part that killed it for us. And for the recession... here's the weird thing. Maybe because i was in my second year of college back then and my family already had housing and cars under control... but I've never seen the actual supposed events of 2008 take place. I get that homes were apparently foreclosed on; but I personally never saw that anywhere in my hometown. So even though there's a lot of comparison to 2008, I just... don't get it. The ultimate question now, is, who will this motivate? I already talked about it the politics thread, but let me slightly modify for this thread: will Americans finally realize the cliff they're at the edge of is breaking, or will many continue to think that because the talking heads say X, Y, and Z that they'll continue to say "everything will be fine"? I'm actually thinking of a quote attributed to Winston Churchill: "Americans will always come through, after they've tried everything else." Technically speaking, we're still at a point where we haven't tried "everything else", and let's just say that "everything else" involves America looking like the French Revolution. __________________ Gifted...or Cursed? R+V fanfic- Chapter 4 of A Water Bride and a Vampire is now up at FF.net! All fans of Inner or Outer Moka, come join her fanclub!

2020-03-17, 17:33	Link #3
ramlaen Senior Member Join Date: May 2006	Let us not fan ignorance of why some countries are doing better than others, there are reasons why South Korea is not getting reamed like Italy.

2020-03-17, 18:29	Link #6
coded321 He Who Games Join Date: Dec 2013 Location: the virtual world	Sadly, we're on track to electing a Democrat who states "Nothing will fundamentally change". Ironically, if things become bad enough, trump might become desperate enough to be willing to implement socialist policies to save his election chances.

2020-03-18, 09:34	Link #8
Psyco Diver Senior Member Join Date: Feb 2014	They haven't burst any bubble yet, this down turn is different from most recessions because usually a bubble burst, this time is because people are afraid of spending money because of this virus. A bubble burst will usually cause the same thing with people not spending money but this it's very different because of the cause and I'm not sure of any time in history that this has happened

2020-03-18, 13:00	Link #9
James Rye Senior Member Join Date: Oct 2014 Location: Germany	Well, all gains under Trump's presidency are gone, finito. Fell even more during his speech when he said he signed the defense production act. __________________

2020-03-19, 12:23	Link #12
Sugetsu Kurumada's lost child Join Date: Nov 2003	I don't believe this, but the republicans have outflanked the Democratic leadership on the left in Universal Basic Income. Pelosi is against UBI But don't worry, the GOP are just as bad. Republican senators unanimously vote against Paid sick Leave for all workers. This is what happens in a government ruled by oligarchs; when it comes to helping the common folk they always got to be careful with spending, but when it comes to bailing out the airlines nobody bats an eye. Here is a video on this very subject from a channel that I follow religiously. YouTube https://youtu.be/EQ2NHkX57Yk Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload? __________________ "If you educate people, you cannot control them." ~Jacque Fresco

2020-03-19, 13:56	Link #13
Toukairin Banned Join Date: Jan 2017 Location: A city with a small mountain in the middle	For whatever "achievements" she has had to her resume as a parliamentarian, it is time for Pelosi to retire and pass the torch to someone who would be more aggressive on pushing the progressive agenda at a time when people need that kind of financial support more than ever.

2020-03-23, 14:17	Link #16
ramlaen Senior Member Join Date: May 2006	YouTube https://youtu.be/GXmAKY7Yq_U Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload? After blocking a bipartisan bill that was 'too bloated' with pork, Pelosi's bill in the House is over twice the page count. Unprecedented collective bargaining powers for unions, fuel emissions standards for airlines and wind/solar tax credits are key issues for dealing with Coronavirus. Last edited by ramlaen; 2020-03-23 at 17:18.

2020-03-23, 20:59	Link #17
Sugetsu Kurumada's lost child Join Date: Nov 2003	^ Both GOP or DEMs are looking out for their top donors that's all. The GOP bill was horrible, and it is no surprise that DEMs aren't doing any better. Just like I said, both parties have sold out to special interests and only an FDR type president could get us out of this miss. It is really too bad there next 4 years are going to be just as horrible if not more, regardless of Trump or Biden being office. Watch this analysis from a republican on the GOP bill: YouTube https://youtu.be/gxuEhaf_X0c Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload? Than the 1930's great depression. __________________ "If you educate people, you cannot control them." ~Jacque Fresco

2020-03-23, 23:55	Link #19
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	A steady, yet stagnate economy is better than a rapidly collapsing economy. __________________

2020-03-24, 00:03	Link #20
ramlaen Senior Member Join Date: May 2006	And allowing your economy to recover after stopping what caused it to collapse is even better, not that the cause of the Great Depression and a global pandemic are comparable in any way.