Taiwan Elections 2012

[Crusify_me]

President MA- 6.89 million votes 51.6% WINNER

Chairman TSAI- 6.09 million votes 45.6%

Chairman SOONG- 370 thousand votes 2.8%


President MA repeats presidency backed by 800 000 votes more than Chairman TSAI.
His main policies for this election was his emphasis on the "1992 consensus" and the continuation of ECFA; however, Taiwanese citizens still demand more FU "feeling" and a more initiative, action-driven second term.

[solomon]

I hear this was mainly driven by the economy.

Now I'm no Chinese policy expert but basically the Kuomatang is for basically not going to war with China as per the 1992 concensus right? Seems practical.

[Crusify_me]

Yes this election result was largely influenced by the economy.

To elaborate more on President MA's current approach towards cross straight relations: "no unification, no independence, no force"

[solomon]

How bad was the world wide economic slowdown on Taiwan?

[Crusify_me]

Originally Posted by solomon

How bad was the world wide economic slowdown on Taiwan?

It hit Taiwan in 08 just like any other country
but 2010-2012 was much more stable and with ECFA in effect since last year, many industrialists and and farmers will benefit

[DawnEmperor]

Yeah, economy seemed to be a major priority(logically of course), as many Taiwanese businessmen returned to Taiwan to vote for Ma. There is a sense of stability.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Despite Taiwan losing manufacturing jobs to China like everywhere else, Taiwan has a rather unusual set of conditions that gave Taiwanese businessmen advantages when setting up factories in China, compared to other non-Chinese companies. Granted that is not compensating for manufacturing jobs lost, but we take what advantage we can get in hard times like these.

I gave up Taiwan ever getting independence. That ship sailed before my father was born. I just hope China can leave us alone now. America can no longer protect us in any case. Don't rock the boat, and everyone can stay where they are. It is not fair, I still WANT independence. But I learned years ago that you are never getting what you want politically unless you have nuclear weapons.

Might makes right. I wish people stop lying to their children about the contrary.

[Crusify_me]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Despite Taiwan losing manufacturing jobs to China like everywhere else, Taiwan has a rather unusual set of conditions that gave Taiwanese businessmen advantages when setting up factories in China, compared to other non-Chinese companies. Granted that is not compensating for manufacturing jobs lost, but we take what advantage we can get in hard times like these.

I gave up Taiwan ever getting independence. That ship sailed before my father was born. I just hope China can leave us alone now. America can no longer protect us in any case. Don't rock the boat, and everyone can stay where they are. It is not fair, I still WANT independence. But I learned years ago that you are never getting what you want politically unless you have nuclear weapons.

Might makes right. I wish people stop lying to their children about the contrary.

I agree with don't rock the boat, but I still think full independence is still possible.
As time goes on, the Chinese citizens will begin to question its non-democratic government and along with the Chinese youth/students and citizens who are abroad, the desire for democracy will eventually succumb. Taiwan independence will have to take this natural course- following an eventual change in Chinese government which could possibly lead to a different approach towards Taiwan than the approach of its Chinese ancestors.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

I agree with don't rock the boat, but I still think full independence is still possible.
As time goes on, the Chinese citizens will begin to question its non-democratic government and along with the Chinese youth/students and citizens who are abroad, the desire for democracy will eventually succumb. Taiwan independence will have to take this natural course- following an eventual change in Chinese government which could possibly lead to a different approach towards Taiwan than the approach of its Chinese ancestors.

See, I no longer think Democracy is inevitable. I believed it once, but not any more. Democracy only happens if those in charge mess up, got greedy, and made it so the population is happier being shot to death than staying silent. The Chinese government is doing a great job keeping the Chinese people satisfied. Not everyone ofcourse, but enough of them that political change isn't successful. There can be a regime change if a catastrophe force the people to demand new leaders, but it is a luck f the draw what kind of government will come out of such a thing.

Either way, Taiwan would have no say in it. We don't matter and have no leverage. Looking at it historically, the Chinese government is just continuing the great tradition of past Chinese rulers. Aristocracy elite ruling over everyone else. Northing's changed in 5000 years.

[Paranoid Android]

The further apart Taiwan is from American influence, the likelier independence is. It's an american influence too close for comfort for PRC.

While I highly doubt China's single-party government will last to the end of civilization and very likely convert sooner or later to some form of democracy, independence of Taiwan would not have to come after that point.

I personally believe that independence will come (maybe fools hope). All really Taiwan should do is prepare for that independence. What concerns me is the economy and just precisely what major actions the Taiwanese government would take should it be completely detached from China in all relations.

China's got the resources that's stealing the market from everyone and as a country that's for itself, they're not doing anything wrong. Everyone else just has to find their own way out of it. And I don't know what that would be.

I'm tired of this fued.

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

the desire for democracy will eventually succumb

You mean the other way around?

--------------
The good side to their government is they get shit done faster than any back-and-forth democracy that waste money on indecisiveness. Which is bad for anyone that's not China and a competitor.

[Crusify_me]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

See, I no longer think Democracy is inevitable. I believed it once, but not any more. Democracy only happens if those in charge mess up, got greedy, and made it so the population is happier being shot to death than staying silent. The Chinese government is doing a great job keeping the Chinese people satisfied. Not everyone ofcourse, but enough of them that political change isn't successful. There can be a regime change if a catastrophe force the people to demand new leaders, but it is a luck f the draw what kind of government will come out of such a thing.

Either way, Taiwan would have no say in it. We don't matter and have no leverage. Looking at it historically, the Chinese government is just continuing the great tradition of past Chinese rulers. Aristocracy elite ruling over everyone else. Northing's changed in 5000 years.

China is benefiting from its economic boom at the moment, but the reality is that it really only makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. There's the phrase: "The coasts of China are like any other developed country, but China's interior is like the 3rd world". The majority is still poor, and I think with today's globalization and the overwhelming amount of democracy in the world (even Russia), it really is only a matter of time before the government is changed. In your and my lifetime, I honestly believe we will see the day that China's political power becomes divided amongst the people- even if this was to happen right now, I ask you: do you think the Chinese citizens would welcome it?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

China is benefiting from its economic boom at the moment, but the reality is that it really only makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. There's the phrase: "The coasts of China are like any other developed country, but China's interior is like the 3rd world". The majority is still poor, and I think with today's globalization and the overwhelming amount of democracy in the world (even Russia), it really is only a matter of time before the government is changed. In your and my lifetime, I honestly believe we will see the day that China's political power becomes divided amongst the people.

Changing government? Sure. China's Dynasties have risen and fell many times. It is inevitable that the current government will one day cease to be.

What I disagree is the idea that democracy would be its replacement with any certainty. There is just not enough will in China for such a thing. Eventually China would no longer able to maintain growth, and we would see either massive inflation or massive unemployment. Either of which could crush the government. But democracy just isn't there to take over. It will be a luck of the draw.

[Paranoid Android]

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

China is benefiting from its economic boom at the moment, but the reality is that it really only makes the rich richer and the poor poorer. There's the phrase: "The coasts of China are like any other developed country, but China's interior is like the 3rd world". The majority is still poor, and I think with today's globalization and the overwhelming amount of democracy in the world (even Russia), it really is only a matter of time before the government is changed. In your and my lifetime, I honestly believe we will see the day that China's political power becomes divided amongst the people- even if this was to happen right now, I ask you: do you think the Chinese citizens would welcome it?

That has nothing to do with what system the Chinese government is running on. That's just plain simple greed. It doesn't matter if it's communism or capitalism. The rich get richer and poor get poorer wherever you are.

And that phrase is no different than any large landmass country. The interior of Canada is the same. USA is more of a mix. the extremely poor is mixed with the extremely rich. They seem to have giant wealthy state capitals in the middle of nowhere. xD
----------------------
Maybe it's just my narrow exposure to the people. But they don't seem to have that 'lets get together and change something' attitude in their voices like we have here in North America.

And I think lacking that, it's hard to initiate a change to China's government in the current decade.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

What I disagree is the idea that democracy would be its replacement with any certainty. There is just not enough will in China for such a thing. Eventually China would no longer able to maintain growth, and we would see either massive inflation or massive unemployment. Either of which could crush the government. But democracy just isn't there to take over. It will be a luck of the draw.

That's an interesting sentiment coming from someone in Taiwan who would presumably be more in tune with mainland sentiment than I am in Singapore. Why do you feel that mainland Chinese are not ready for democracy as of this moment? What institutions are present in Taiwan specifically that aren't around in China and why do you feel that mainland Chinese aren't capable of building such institutions?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Paranoid Android

Maybe it's just my narrow exposure to the people. But they don't seem to have that 'lets get together and change something' attitude in their voices like we have here in North America.

And I think lacking that, it's hard to initiate a change to China's government in the current decade.

Eventually people in charge of China would go. One day. But as you say, there is a lack of will for real change. Here's the new boss, same as the old boss.

That's an interesting sentiment coming from someone in Taiwan who would presumably be more in tune with mainland sentiment than I am in Singapore. Why do you feel that mainland Chinese are not ready for democracy as of this moment? What institutions are present in Taiwan specifically that aren't around in China and why do you feel that mainland Chinese aren't capable of building such institutions?

Speaking for myself and no one else, I feel Taiwan is what it is today because we are deliberately trying to be as un-Chinese as possible. We have one of the highest voting percentages in the world because voting proves that we are not Chinese. We are the most pro-Japan Asian population anywhere, the opposite of China's constant complaints. The more China claim we are part of them, the more I want to show otherwise through my actions.

In short, China is the reason Taiwan is what it is today. (This is just my personal view and not back up by research.) I can't see Taiwan replicated in China for that reason.

EDIT:
Looking back, Taiwan didn't start off being a Democracy. The ROC was really a bannana republic with an invincible ruling party which never lost. But as the ruling party lose support from America, the opposition gained strength. Until literally decades later the opposition finally won government. After that, we finally got a two-party system for real. We had fake democracy for decades until one day, people forgot it was suppose to be fake and took it seriously.

Sounds like a Puss-in-Boots story, doesn't it?

[Crusify_me]

I guess what I'm trying to say is if you look at the economic boom China is going through right now, you wonder what their eventual goal is, what is China trying to achieve.
Is it to achieve the production level of the United States? To achieve a standard of living equal to that of the 1st world? To build multi-billion dollar industries that dominate the global market? If China wants to become a legitimate global super power in all aspects (economy, production, GDP, technology, military) than I think democracy is an eventual residue of this goal. There is no current superpower country that is non-democratic.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

I guess what I'm trying to say is if you look at the economic boom China is going through right now, you wonder what their eventual goal is, what is China trying to achieve.
Is it to achieve the production level of the United States? To achieve a standard of living equal to that of the 1st world? To build multi-billion dollar industries that dominate the global market? If China wants to become a legitimate global super power in all aspects (economy, production, GDP, technology, military) than I think democracy is an eventual residue of this goal. There is no current superpower country that is non-democratic.

Actually, once again IMO, China just wants to keep enough people employed so that they don't riot in the streets.

Being a superpower is the kind of crazy dream Mao had that killed so many people, even the Chinese would rather not talk about that past. It would help if China can become a world power, but it is only a means to an end. The aristocracy needs the population to stay satisfied, and that can only happen if they can get jobs. Currently they do this by building empty cities and bridges to nowhere. This is a balancing act for the last 5000 years; and so far no one in history managed it for long.

Economic power means jobs. Jobs means less riots. As long as people get paid, they don't worry about their lack of freedoms. But once the times are bad, that's when things fall apart.

[Crusify_me]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Eventually people in charge of China would go. One day. But as you say, there is a lack of will for real change. Here's the new boss, same as the old boss.

Speaking for myself and no one else, I feel Taiwan is what it is today because we are deliberately trying to be as un-Chinese as possible. We have one of the highest voting percentages in the world because voting proves that we are not Chinese. We are the most pro-Japan Asian population anywhere, the opposite of China's constant complaints. The more China claim we are part of them, the more I want to show otherwise through my actions.

In short, China is the reason Taiwan is what it is today. (This is just my personal view and not back up by research.) I can't see Taiwan replicated in China for that reason.

EDIT:
Looking back, Taiwan didn't start off being a Democracy. The ROC was really a bannana republic with an invincible ruling party which never lost. But as the ruling party lose support from America, the opposition gained strength. Until literally decades later the opposition finally won government. After that, we finally got a two-party system for real. We had fake democracy for decades until one day, people forgot it was suppose to be fake and took it seriously.

Sounds like a Puss-in-Boots story, doesn't it?

A dual party system for Taiwan is always going to be a benefit, even if there's corruption, because democracy doesn't work if there is no opposition.

I think the core ideology that the opposition party represents is innately what the Taiwanese people want- a local, Taiwanese political party, that wants to strive for independence. This party is the people's party, the heart and sole, the mark of independence.

BUT they lost this election, because to sum it up,
this term the Taiwanese chose economic and relational stability.
Independence is great, ideal, my dream, but not at the expense of our economy, peace, and stability.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Crusify_me

A dual party system for Taiwan is always going to be a benefit, despite corruption, because democracy doesn't work if there is no opposition.

I think what the core ideology that the opposition party represents is innately what the Taiwanese people want- a local, Taiwanese political party, that wants to strive for independence. This party is the people's party, the heart and sole, the mark of independence.

BUT they lost this election, because to sum it up,
this term the Taiwanese chose economic and relational stability.
Independence is great, ideal, my dream, but not at the expense of our economy, peace, and stability.

And that worked in China too. The population there just wants a good economy, peace, and stability. Hence, they will not jeopardise any of that to get democracy. If the government failed to deliver, they would be replaced by other people. But democracy is not a shoe-in at any stage.

[Crusify_me]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

And that worked in China too. The population there just wants a good economy, peace, and stability. Hence, they will not jeopardise any of that to get democracy. If the government failed to deliver, they would be replaced by other people. But democracy is not a shoe-in at any stage.

All we can do is to maintain neutral relations, take care of our economy, establish our own international diplomacy (Visa-free to US later this year) and really only time and the Chinese citizens will/can determine our eventual full independence.
Let's make sure we're economically ready for that day