Japanese Politics

[Shadow Kira01]

To be honest, I wish the LDP can find a candidate like the founder of the three non-nuclear principles, Eisaku Sato. I really love his foreign policies. However, chances are impossible as how the situation stands as that the LDP is no longer capable of producing successors.

For that matter, the DPJ is most suitable at the moment to take the reins of the government as that quite a percentage of the Democratic Party of Japan are former members of the LDP. More importantly, Hatoyama Yukio makes a much greater leader than the current Taro Aso. If the DPJ takes the reins of the government, there will be noticeable changes. The government under the leadership of the DPJ will most likely take a fair stance on the issues of the Middle East as that both the United States and China are being unfair to the Muslims, treating them with military aggression. The DPJ will definitely not support this sort of action as that it is wrong.

Perhaps, some people will get the idea that if we don't support the Americans, they won't help on the issue of North Korea but that perspective is completely wrong as that the United States isn't doing anything to begin with. More over, the United States will automatically do something about it as that North Korean missiles do threaten the safety of Americans living in Hawaii as that their long-range missile technology has the capability of hitting the islands, not mentioning that their improvement in nuclear technology adds to the threat. Generally, not helping the United States on military missions will not affect anything in regards to North Korea's nuclear and missile threat, as well as China's military buildup. Thus, I cannot see the occurrences of souring ties as that it is unreasonable. More over, the DPJ intends to have Japan on equal footing with the United States as opposed to the traditional relationship of leader and subordinate in which Japan must obey and follow the lead of the United States on various global issues, even if those issues aren't very correct. Is this not change?

Originally Posted by 428

To the man in the streets of Japan, it doesn't matter. LDP flopped 3 times already. We're very forgiving already you know. And even if DPJ wins, there isn't going to be much change. And don't even mention Japan Communist Party, they're just warped. Oh how I wish the Japan Socialist Party was still around. I miss the Murayama (Tomichii) days. [But, tellingly, Kansai people won't. He botched up the Kobe-Awaji Earthquake.]

Japan Socialist Party? That'd be awful...

[428]

Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01

To be honest, I wish the LDP can find a candidate like the founder of the three non-nuclear principles, Eisaku Sato. I really love his foreign policies. However, chances are impossible as how the situation stands as that the LDP is no longer capable of producing successors.

We had Murayama Tomiichi. He was great at foreign policy.

For that matter, the DPJ is most suitable at the moment to take the reins of the government as that quite a percentage of the Democratic Party of Japan are former members of the LDP. More importantly, Hatoyama Yukio makes a much greater leader than the current Taro Aso.

He was only recently made leader. So there's not much I can say about him.

If the DPJ takes the reins of the government, there will be noticeable changes. The government under the leadership of the DPJ will most likely take a fair stance on the issues of the Middle East as that both the United States and China are being unfair to the Muslims, treating them with military aggression. The DPJ will definitely not support this sort of action as that it is wrong.

Oh? Can't say for sure. I mean, trade will still take the front seat at any rate, which could mean a paradigm shift from US to China...?

Perhaps, some people will get the idea that if we don't support the Americans, they won't help on the issue of North Korea but that perspective is completely wrong as that the United States isn't doing anything to begin with.

Remember the SOFA agreement. If they pull out, what is our JSDF worth? It's limited by Constitution and the Budget... Not wise.

More over, the United States will automatically do something about it as that North Korean missiles do threaten the safety of Americans living in Hawaii

And Japan too.

as that their long-range missile technology has the capability of hitting the islands, not mentioning that their improvement in nuclear technology adds to the threat. Generally, not helping the United States on military missions will not affect anything in regards to North Korea's nuclear and missile threat, as well as China's military buildup. Thus, I cannot see the occurrences of souring ties as that it is unreasonable.

Souring ties with CHINA!? Are you out of your mind??

More over, the DPJ intends to have Japan on equal footing with the United States as opposed to the traditional relationship of leader and subordinate in which Japan must obey and follow the lead of the United States on various global issues, even if those issues aren't very correct. Is this not change?

Yeah that's a change, at any rate. Change I can believe in.

Japan Socialist Party? That'd be awful...

Not really...compared to the Japan Communist Party!

[Shadow Kira01]

No change of power means defeat for DPJ: Hatoyama

I have a bad feeling about this. Why is Yukio Hatoyama feeling so down as to think of getting defeated after winning 5 straight victories in local polls and also the Tokyo Assembly Election? Then again, to achieve a majority of 129 seats without the aid of other political parties is surely challenging as that the new secret DPJ manifesto will not be able to achieve its full potential if the Democratic Party of Japan will end up holding the reins of the government with a coalition partner as that some of the policies will most likely not work out with the others and will be required to get modified for the sake of the coalition. Definitely not good..

On the contrary.. Considering that the Liberal Democrats had hold the reins of the government for more than 5 decades with almost no break of rule and the fact that they already had 2 one-year prime ministers, not mentioning that Taro Aso will fall short of the one-year, how is it possible for the DPJ to lose the upcoming election? The one reasonable fear is that smaller political parties will win an increased number of seats causing the DPJ to fail the majority achievement. Personally, I think coalitions never work right as that half of their policies will have to be adjusted. Nonetheless, I am pretty confident Hatoyama will be the next prime minister.

[Shadow Kira01]

Hatoyama aiming for majority with other opposition parties

Meanwhile, opposition Japanese Communist Party leader Kazuo Shii indicated the possibility that his party's lawmakers could vote for Hatoyama in the Diet nomination for prime minister following the general election, saying, ''It may well be that we'll vote for the DPJ in the runoff so as not to allow the LDP and the New Komeito to remain in power.''

''We need to bring an end to the distressing government of the Liberal Democratic Party and the New Komeito party in the long-awaited lower house election,'' Shii said at a press conference.

Shii added, however, that his party would need to talk with the DPJ before voting for Hatoyama to confirm that the DPJ would not go ahead with a consumption tax hike and amending the Constitution, both of which the JCP opposes.

Honestly, I don't see much differences between the Communists and New Komeito, except that New Komeito is supported by Soka Gakkai which is quite a large Buddhist organization but nonetheless, their policies are pretty similar in various aspects. In this case scenario, it appears that the more votes the better the chances. However, I believe the DPJ can win a majority on its own. Actually, chances of Hatoyama going for a consumption tax hike is quite unlikely, not mentioning that amending the Constitution is more unlikely. On the contrary, the high executives of the DPJ seems to be keeping all their foreign policies and national security policies as secrets before the general election. Whether it'd be predictable or surprising may be difficult to tell at such an earlier time. Not cooperating with the United States and not amending the Constitution may be a bad idea, unless the DPJ plans on cooperating with China and Russia instead but that is most unlikely as that they may not want to cooperate in the first place. I wonder what the next prime minister Yukio Hatoyama's plans are..

Aso dissolves lower house for Aug. 30 poll, LDP facing uphill battle

Among them is Kunio Hatoyama, an LDP heavyweight and one of Aso's close allies who resigned last month from the post of internal affairs and communications minister over a row involving Japan Post Holdings Co. and expressed interest in forming a new party.

There is also simmering speculation that anti-Aso lawmakers may come up with an original campaign platform, different from the party's.

The embarrassing departure of Shoichi Nakagawa from the post of finance minister was also a jolt to Aso. Nakagawa stepped down in February after apparently drunken behavior at a press conference after the Group of Seven meeting in Rome.

And these guys were actually the famous HANA-kai and its associates who removed Fukuda Yasuo from the reins of government due to his problematic foreign policies? Funny thing is that these guys don't have better policies either. Just disappointment after disappointment..

[Autumn Demon]

LDP uses anime commercial to attack the DPJ.

From LDP website:

[Shadow Kira01]

Aso seeks support from biz groups, Hatoyama out on street stumps

Soon after Hatoyama began speaking, people crowded around his campaign vehicle and listened, responding occasionally to his speech with cheers and applause.

It is extremely rare for a prime minister to show up in person and knock on the doors of organizations to beg for their support.

Whether the DPJ have the right financial plan to back up their policies or not, it is still a much better future than the current one that comes with doom and gloom. Just looking at the situation in which the Aso Cabinet starts to adopt negative election campaigning and scare tactics, while the DPJ is becoming more flexible with foreign policies, as well as enjoying campaign tours pretty much indicate the winner is already determined for the Aug. 30 election. The next prime minister of Japan is no other than Yukio Hatoyama of the DPJ.

[SeijiSensei]

From the article cited by Autumn Demon:

The DPJ plans to encourage consumer spending by providing as much as 5.3 trillion yen ($56 billion) in child support and lowering gasoline taxes. The party ran an ad in today’s Asahi and Nikkei newspapers signed by Hatoyama that said “The moment of changing history is near. Finally a change of government.”

Is this also an attempt to fuel some child production in rapidly-aging Japan? A $56bn increase in child support subsidies seems quite a substantial sum. Doing a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation using official Japanese population figures indicates that this works out to about $3,500 per child. I can't easily find comparable figures on child subsidy payments in other countries, though I doubt many countries reach the French levels reported in the WP article I cited above (as much as $960/month in the first year for a third child). $3,500 is still a substantial bounty for having a child, especially if it's paid annually over the child's life span.

Lowering gas taxes is no doubt a popular suggestion, though it seems quite wrong-headed to me at a time when we're trying to reduce the use of petroleum products. Personally I'd like to see the US Federal gas tax be substantially increased by as much as $2/gallon.

[428]

Originally Posted by Autumn Demon

LDP uses anime commercial to attack the DPJ.

From LDP website:

"I'll think of that after marriage".

Isn't that typical LDP too? It's all the same from the man in the street in Tokyo like me. Has the LDP's loss in Tokyo Metropolis elections affected us greatly? No. Will a change of PM affect us? Not really.

But. Will it affect other nations? HELL YES. In fact, I thought that a more accurate way of getting a straw poll would have to be getting all the Embassies in Japan to vote. Just joking. But seriously, it won't affect us much - we've been in a recession for 20 years now.

[Shadow Kira01]

Aso makes verbal gaffe as politicians stump around ahead of election

''Elderly people have no talents other than working,'' Aso said at a meeting of the Junior Chamber International Japan held in Yokohama, expressing hope that many elderly people will work and thus be taxpayers.

Yukio Hatoyama, president of the largest opposition Democratic Party of Japan, said in a street speech in Osaka, ''I do not understand what he means. Isn't it up to those who have aged (whether or not to work)?''

I do not believe the prime minister had made a gaffe but rather that he is talking about himself. Generally, if he doesn't continue working as the "prime minister", he will have nothing to do.

In other words, the gaffe translates to "If you people don't vote for me, I won't be able to continue to work as a prime minister and if that happens, I will have nothing left, please show some pity". If that's a typical ji-san, most people would feel show pity to Taro Aso but unfortunately, he is a blue blood politician like Yukio Hatoyama. More over, the DPJ is capable of taking reins of the government as that many of its members are former LDP members. If the LDP makes insults as that the DPJ is incapable of leading the government, they would generally be saying that they are also incapable of leading the government. Thus, there is no point to support them.

[428]

Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01

Aso makes verbal gaffe as politicians stump around ahead of election





I do not believe the prime minister had made a gaffe but rather that he is talking about himself. Generally, if he doesn't continue working as the "prime minister", he will have nothing to do.

In other words, the gaffe translates to "If you people don't vote for me, I won't be able to continue to work as a prime minister and if that happens, I will have nothing left, please show some pity". If that's a typical ji-san, most people would feel show pity to Taro Aso but unfortunately, he is a blue blood politician like Yukio Hatoyama. More over, the DPJ is capable of taking reins of the government as that many of its members are former LDP members. If the LDP makes insults as that the DPJ is incapable of leading the government, they would generally be saying that they are also incapable of leading the government. Thus, there is no point to support them.

You know what everybody? If there's an independent in your electoral area - VOTE FOR HIM!

This is the current hopelessness in Japanese politics.

[Shadow Kira01]

Hatoyama would retire from politics after serving as PM

Hatoyama seems to be making a very good point. Once the Aug. 30th election is over and that the DPJ has taken the reins of the government, Taro Aso should retire as that he has already served as prime minister.

DPJ-backed candidate projected to win in Sendai mayoral election

If she wins Sendai, it would be the 6th or 7th straight victory for the DPJ. Looking good..

[Autumn Demon]

The DPJ released their party manifesto yesterday which contains a proposal to cut the number of proportional seats from 180 to 100, reducing the total number of seats in the lower house of the Diet from 480 to 400. If successful, it would mark the second cut to proportional seats since they were introduced by the non-LDP government in 1993.

Proportional representation is hurting the opposition DPJ the most right now as they prepare to win the general election, yet many of its own members were part of the 1993 government that introduced the dual electoral system. PR eliminates the chance of Japan ever becoming a true two-party state like America because small parties will always be assured seats in both houses even if they only pull 3% of the vote.

Even if the DPJ gains a majority of seats in the August 30 election, it will still only have a plurality of seats in the upper house and need to rely on its coalition partners (Communists and Social Democrats) to get legislation through. The LDP has been in the minority in the upper house since 2007 which has seriously hindered its ability to pass laws, but it at least has had a 2/3 majority in the lower house which enabled it to override an upper house veto. But if the DPJ is as successful in next year's upper house election as they are predicted to be in this year's lower house one, then they may be able to govern Japan by themselves a year from now.

[Shadow Kira01]

MSDF's mission to be terminated if DPJ wins power: Hatoyama

This is more like it. It seems that Yukio Hatoyama has finally come to his senses. By terminating the MSDF's refueling mission, there is no reason why the Social Democrats will not form a coalition with the DPJ and PNP. Aside from that, it also makes his policies very consistent. A relationship of trust with the Obama Administration in the United States don't necessary imply continuing the role of the subordinate as that is not equal and balanced.

Considering how good the bilateral ties are between the American government and the Chinese government, not mentioning them going as far as telling Obama "Yes We Can", it will only be a matter of time China sends reinforcements for the mission in Afghanistan, Japan's refueling mission is unnecessary.

[SeijiSensei]

Leader in this week's Economist about the Japanese election

[Shadow Kira01]

FOCUS: Defector Asao raps DPJ for 'dole-out policy race' with LDP

This shadow defense minister must be out of his mind. Speaking of which, there seems to be some strange things are starting to occur as two major political parties fight for the reins of the government as that the LDP seems to be putting lots of money into their uphill battle. First, the Kamen Rider villian campaign as though the guys are trying to get all fans of the Kamen Rider series to go against the DPJ as that they are like the villians of the very popular and long-lasting live-action series. Next, a potential DPJ candidate gets into a car accident which will prevent him from running in the next election as that his health conditions won't recover in time. And now, the shadow defense minister defects over to the LDP. There are other trivial matters as well, not mentioning that some have yet to occur. It appears that the LDP cannot afford to lose this election and is going all-out. However, just because they are putting more money into it doesn't necessarily mean that they will win. In fact, it points out that the LDP is not fit to lead the nation. A good political party isn't one that utilizes money for cheap tricks.

ELECTION 2009--BATTLE FOR POWER / LDP manifesto 'lacks freshness'

Marketing consultant Ryujin Nishikawa said both the LDP and DPJ had clearly put a great deal of effort into the design of their manifesto booklets and filled them with clever phrases, reminding him of corporate image advertising by major companies.

"The key message of the DPJ's manifesto is to support household income, while the LDP's is to support economic growth," Nishikawa said.

"However, I believe people can get a clearer impression of the DPJ's manifesto since it incorporates figures to emphasize what people will receive, and how their burdens will be reduced. Overall, the DPJ has done a better job than the LDP in creating an image that the people can relate to, although there must be some people who are questioning whether the DPJ can actually implement these policies," Nishikawa added.

Economic journalist Hiroko Ogiwara had harsher words for the LDP.

"While the DPJ has taken the bold step of mentioning a reexamination of the entire budget, the LDP's policies lack freshness and concrete detail. They show the limitations of the LDP in reviewing the lead taken by bureaucrats in the budget compilation process," she said.

Ogiwara also took a hard line when looking at other policies included in the LDP's manifesto, such as those relating to the transition from terrestrial broadcasting to digital and the strengthening of measures against the new strain of influenza.

"The significance of the manifesto is to show what policies parties will be implemented over the next four years. However, the LDP has included policies that are already being implemented, and policies the government is obliged to carry out anyway," Ogiwara said.

As long as the DPJ can work out some foreign and security policies with the socialists and the PNP, there is no way the LDP will continue their rule. However, this seems a little tough but a change of government is both vital and necessary.

[Shadow Kira01]

Media mistranslated Obama: ministry

Kodama denied he pointed out the mistranslation out of concern Japanese might get the impression Obama believes U.S.-China ties are more important than Washington's relationship with Tokyo.

Kodama's actions clearly supports the idea that there was no mistranslation. Instead, I am starting to see that Okada Katsuya is making a good point in standing up to the United States on equal grounds as opposed to obediently agreeing to everything and also not having any opinions. Speaking of which, why is Kodama of the Foreign Ministry making a fuss when Obama said nothing of it at all? If it was a mistranslation or a misunderstanding, the United States would clarify it themselves yet Kodama had to went out of the way to do it for Obama. Makes no sense...

[FateAnomaly]

I wonder if there really will be a difference who wins. Its probably just changing the red apple with a green apple. But at least there's hope i guess.

[sa547]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Leader in this week's Economist about the Japanese election

To add, I find the big switches and reverses even in the countryside rather amusing, as everyone suddenly put their bets on DPJ:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/06/wo....html?ref=asia

[Shadow Kira01]

Japanese lawmakers launch new party ahead of vote

"To begin with, we want to concentrate the anti-Liberal Democrat influence and realize a change of government in the general election," the party wrote on its newly launched Web site.

The disagreement within the Liberal Democrats got so big and out of control that members started leaving the political party, while supporters switching sides. Apparently, this isn't unexpected. There are various reasons why people are unhappy with the leadership of the current ruling government.

[Shadow Kira01]

ELECTION 2009--BATTLE FOR POWER / LDP, DPJ split on security issues

Liberal Democratic Party


The Liberal Democratic Party's basic approach to national defense and international cooperation efforts is to "strengthen the Japan-U.S. security system"--an approach Japan has relied upon since the end of the Cold War--and "promote international peace cooperation activities by the Self-Defense Forces."

To be noted is the proposed formulation of "national defense program guidelines" and the party's "midterm defense buildup program," which the government plans to compile at the end of this year, based on recommendations submitted by a subcommittee for studying defense policy within the National Defense Division of the LDP in June.

The recommendations include retaining the capability to strike enemy bases and a relaxation of the three principles relating to arms exports. If these recommendations were realized, it would mark a major turning point in the country's national defense policy.

The manifesto also says the party will promote the deployment of a missile defense system and enhanced measures against terrorist and guerrilla attacks, nuclear, biological and chemical weapons, and cyber-attacks.

It also proposes setting up a national security council within the Cabinet to reinforce the Prime Minister's Office's control-tower functions with regard to diplomacy and national security.

Democratic Party of Japan


The phrase "Self-Defense Forces" does not appear in the Democratic Party of Japan's manifesto. Unlike the LDP's defense policy, the DPJ's manifesto almost never refers to specific national defense measures.

As for contributing to joint international efforts, the ideas of DPJ Acting President Ichiro Ozawa likely are reflected in a proposal to work toward the kind of world peace envisaged by the United Nations.

Though the manifesto makes no specific reference to the SDF's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean and its antipiracy operations off Somalia, it does touch upon antipiracy measures in general, saying, "[The party] will conduct activities to deal with pirates through proper procedures," though it does not state who would carry out such activities.

On the other hand, the DPJ manifesto emphasizes the issue of nuclear disarmament, saying the party "will aim at denuclearizing Northeast Asia." Concrete measures include early effectuation of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and realization of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, which prohibits the production of plutonium and highly enriched uranium that can be used to make nuclear weapons. These issues have come to the fore following the inauguration of U.S. President Barack Obama, who has taken a positive stance on nuclear disarmament.

It seems that the Japan-US relationship will no doubt take a change for better or worse after the August 30th election in which a change of government will finally be realized.

Although the Liberal Democrats seem to be rather idealistic to the point that they are refusing to accept the reality of Japan's circumstances. Maintaining current ties with the United States will not ensure or guarantee anything at all as that the United States had always been pursuing the path of building a strong relationship with China, not just on the economic grounds but the military grounds as well as that the two nations can dominate the world with little resistance due to their overwhelming military powers, not mentioning that Russia is an ally of China while various strong European nations follow the lead of the United States. For that matter, relying on the United States to deal with China's continuous rapid military buildup is unrealistic as that the United States obviously have no such intentions to care the slightest. After all, the United States also need China to deal with global terrorism as that the ones doing bombings in China are from the same origin as the ones doing harm to the United States.

On the issue of North Korea, the recent visit made by former American president Bill Clinton to rescue two female journalists hold captive for hard labor of a 12-year sentence was most likely well-planned as that the condition for their release would be for the United States to pursue bilateral negotiations with North Korea without the need of the unrealistic and failed six-party talks which North Korea is unhappy about. In this case, relying on the United States to deal with North Korea's denuclearization is unnecessary as that the United States will no doubt resolve the issue as it benefits them in the first place. However, that has nothing to do with the release of the abductees meaning the United States will do nothing about it.

On the issue of pursuing a future without nukes, it is also a very idealistic approach as that the United States and China are not going to change their minds of tossing away their deterrents, not mentioning that most Americans still consider the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki as justice and righteousness. Then, there is the refueling mission in which some of the oil were used in the Iraq Invasion as that the mission was carried out solely for the purpose of saving Bush's family oil business from bankruptcy as opposed to eliminating weapons of mass destruction which shall remove the threat that disturbs world peace. Aside from all this, the refueling mission itself is not approved by the United Nations.

And thus, regardless of what the Liberal Democrats may claim of how extending the refueling mission will maintain Japan-US relations which will in turn provide ground to deal with China's rapid military buildup and also the nuclear and missile threats of North Korea, reality says otherwise. It feels as though the LDP is taking a firm stance at refusing to accept the reality of Japan's circumstance on the global stage. Such pity...

----
The relationship between Japan and the United States is very much like the bilateral ties of the United States and North Korea. North Korea considers strong bilateral ties with the United States has very important but at the same time, North Korea is also helping the development of nukes in Iran and that it is a fact Iran's military arsenal is a threat to the United States. On the other hand, the United States are claiming that Japan is the cornerstone of Asia and an important ally to the Americans yet at the same time. The United States refuses to acknowledge the fact that the atomic bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki are not justice but wrong, while at the same time declaring that the United States will shape the world in the 21st century with China. And it is also a fact that the rapid military buildup of China is becoming quite a concern to the national security of Japan. For that matter, can the United States truly accept North Korea as a trusted ally? Can Japan truly agree to all American demands with no opinions or whatsoever?