Japanese Politics

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by solomon

I was wondering, what is this fabled all-powerful "beureacracy" made of? Buisness leaders? Old Money?

To be blunt, themselves.
They have no other authority to answer to, they compartmentalize every duty with so many cross section making it impossible to actual grasp who is in charge of any issue, they rig public bids so to insure positions after retirement, and so on and so forth.
The abuse of power by these bureaucrats are so intense and yet so difficult to prove it's sickening.
LDP utilize this power to ensure their own but local governements and people are becoming more aware of this abuse and now wants action to correct this problem.

[Sackett]

The main problem for Japan (and the rest of the world) are issues that can not be solved by government.

The Great Depression/WWII created societal trauma around the world.

For the generation who lived through those times there were two major impacts.

The first was a materialism, driven by a lack of those material goods in their formative years. Eccentricities such as hoarding, conspicuous consumption, and making personal worth intertwined with work, career, and income. Advice given to women on who to marry emphasized future earnings. These are all really evidences of a deeper pathology among societies. This excessive materialism has been passed on to later generations.

The second was an intense need for "normality" particularly in family life. Resulting in what might be called "hyper-normality". Deviations from the norm are heavily ostracized as threatening. Often this leads to emphasis on shibboleths (surface issues), rather than substantive ones. In truth none of this is really "normal", it only appears that way on the surface. In America this was evident in the 50s and eventually resulted in the rebellion of the 70s. In Japan this "hyper-normality" seems to have calcified.

Either way it doesn't matter, they are just different ways societal problems created by the Depression and WWII continue to fester in current generations. Both routes continue to cause problems for society.

Until these problems are dealt with by people placing a greater relative value on substantive non-materialistic contributions to families, and identifying those activities as providing self worth, all the other problems will not be solved.

Unfortunately government can't do much to change these feelings.

They are pretty much doomed then.By 2050, the japanese population will be around 90 millions, in 2100 around 40 millions.

I have no evidence, but I find really hard to believe that a human society can survive without damage what can only be called a demographic collapse.Japan like a lot of southern and eastern european countries is simply dying.

Unsustainable.

This assumes that behavior will not change, when in truth it likely will. Realize that the next generation of Japanese are more likely to come from families that emphasize children over material goods- thus making them more likely to have children when they themselves grow up to childbearing age.

I've actually noticed an increasing appearance of large (4 children) families in recent anime. Might this be a leading indicator of a shift in desires among (some) young Japanese for a larger family?

[yezhanquan]

Demographic changes don't happen overnight. Moreover, last I heard on child bearing statistics, Japanese women aren't exactly having that many children.

And er, I think you meant to say the rebellion of the 60s. That's where the baby boomers come of age and demanded their voices to be heard. As far as I can see, youth bulges are now in other countries. The US and Japan had seen the end of it, for now.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by yezhanquan

Demographic changes don't happen overnight. Moreover, last I heard on child bearing statistics, Japanese women aren't exactly having that many children.

Here's a recent paper analyzing the factors that have led to the decline in Japan's birth rates (warning PDF):
http://paa2009.princeton.edu/downloa...issionId=91025

The most significant factor has been the postponement of marriage in younger age groups ("cohorts" to use the demographers' term). At this point marriage is so delayed that these younger cohorts generally can't "catch up" to the birth rates of older cohorts. The author attributes part of this delay to rising educational attainment among Japanese women, but much of it seems the result of a behavioral change toward smaller families in all younger couples regardless of the woman's education. The proportion of single-child households is rising rapidly.

There's little evidence in this or the other studies I quickly scanned to suggest Japan will be seeing any sort of surge in birth rates in the coming decades.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Here's a recent paper analyzing the factors that have led to the decline in Japan's birth rates (warning PDF):
http://paa2009.princeton.edu/downloa...issionId=91025

The most significant factor has been the postponement of marriage in younger age groups ("cohorts" to use the demographers' term). At this point marriage is so delayed that these younger cohorts generally can't "catch up" to the birth rates of older cohorts. The author attributes part of this delay to rising educational attainment among Japanese women, but much of it seems the result of a behavioral change toward smaller families in all younger couples regardless of the woman's education. The proportion of single-child households is rising rapidly.

There's little evidence in this or the other studies I quickly scanned to suggest Japan will be seeing any sort of surge in birth rates in the coming decades.

As long as the corporations in Japan remain family-unfriendly and it takes two full incomes to raise a family, not much will change and it will get worse. They *need* to look at other nations which insist business participate in the social and infrastructure needed to raise children (e.g. the Scandinavian countries) while allowing women to reach their potential as human beings.

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by yezhanquan

Demographic changes don't happen overnight. Moreover, last I heard on child bearing statistics, Japanese women aren't exactly having that many children.

And er, I think you meant to say the rebellion of the 60s. That's where the baby boomers come of age and demanded their voices to be heard. As far as I can see, youth bulges are now in other countries. The US and Japan had seen the end of it, for now.

Actually the rebellious 60s is a bit of a false image.

The "youth movement" started in the late 60s, but it didn't really become a full blown shift in American culture until the 70s. But the leaders of the movement started in the 60s so when they recall the rebellion they identify the 60s and so it's become a bit of a meme that the 60s was the rebellious age.

Woodstock for example was in 1969, and only became a touchstone of the shift in culture later. In 1969 Woodstock was thought to be a marginal event for people on the edge of society.

But back on topic:

It is true that demographic changes don't happen overnight, but they can happen much faster than people realize.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bulge in Japanese birth rates starting in about another 20 years, resulting in a significant change in Japanese population changes in about 40 to 50 years.

I'm not saying Japan's population won't decline, but I am saying that it is unlikely to continue declining indefinitely.

Russia is the nation in the biggest trouble, because they not only have a low birthrate, but they also have a high death rate, and a less stable government. Additionally Russia has more broken families than Japan. All of which suggests to me that eventually the Japanese birth rate will recover, while the Russian birth rate might not until after a major crisis.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Sackett

I wouldn't be surprised to see a bulge in Japanese birth rates starting in about another 20 years, resulting in a significant change in Japanese population changes in about 40 to 50 years.

Just curious, but why do you think that? Certainly the demographic evidence points in the opposite direction. I suppose I could imagine a future scenario where the lack of young workers makes encouraging higher birth rates a government priority. In that case I could see the government more aggressively subsidizing childbirth and child-rearing than they do now, and perhaps corporations might start to adopt those "family-friendly" policies Vexx spoke of.

Nevertheless most cross-national studies show that rising income and wealth result in lower rates of childbirth. One of my colleagues during my academic days studied Indian politics. He argued that efforts at birth control in India were largely unsuccessful because large families are the equivalent of "social security" in poor countries. People need large familes in poorer societies to help subsidize parents and grandparents as they age.

Even here in the US, recent and future population growth has been fueled more by immigration (and the US-born children of immigrants) than by childbirth among native-born Americans.

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Just curious, but why do you think that? Certainly the demographic evidence points in the opposite direction. I suppose I could imagine a future scenario where the lack of young workers makes encouraging higher birth rates a government priority. In that case I could see the government more aggressively subsidizing childbirth and child-rearing than they do now, and perhaps corporations might start to adopt those "family-friendly" policies Vexx spoke of.

Nevertheless most cross-national studies show that rising income and wealth result in lower rates of childbirth. One of my colleagues during my academic days studied Indian politics. He argued that efforts at birth control in India were largely unsuccessful because large families are the equivalent of "social security" in poor countries. People need large familes in poorer societies to help subsidize parents and grandparents as they age.

Even here in the US, recent and future population growth has been fueled more by immigration (and the US-born children of immigrants) than by childbirth among native-born Americans.

The reason I think we will probably see a change in about 20 years or so is because in Japan there are three main restraints on having larger families.

In order of importance:

1: Cost of Housing
2: Businesses demand too much from workers ie not family friendly.
3: Cost of educating a child

The first issue is going to be effected by the decrease in population. There will be a decreasing demand for housing, while the supply remains about the same. The inevitable result is a decrease in the cost of housing- which is one of the primary deterrents to starting a family and having children.

The second issue is also likely to be effected (and there are already some hints of things changing). As workers age, retire, or die off, the supply of labor will decrease, forcing companies to bid up the compensation for workers.

This could be done by straight up increasing wages, but it is likely that cost pressures will encourage companies to find cheaper ways of compensating workers- and one of the most likely methods will be greater flexibility and family friendly practices, with more emphasis on piece work instead of hours worked. There will also be pressure to allow more women with children into the workforce, even if it's only on a part time basis.

I don't foresee any major changes in the third restraint, but the changes in the first two should be enough to cause a small baby boom.

None of these predictions require the assumption of governmental intervention.

Free markets are usually self-correcting in the long run. Since children are valuable, eventually free markets will shift to be more friendly to child production.

Of course, this is assuming that we don't enter a world wide Great Depression lasting multiple decades. (Which I think is unlikely, but terrifyingly possible)

Edit: As a side note, the level of immigration into the US is likely to decrease dramatically. Mexico provides the bulk of current immigration, and the Mexican birth rate collapsed recently, which means in about 20 years the level of immigration will have significantly declined.

[yezhanquan]

I mean as a political trend, the 60s stood out more. Who can ever forget '68?

I think the mechanization of labour in Japan is one that cannot be estimated. Finding workers, or simply upgrade robotics?

[Shadow Kira01]

Japanese leader reshuffles Cabinet

TOKYO (AP) -- Japan's increasingly unpopular prime minister appointed two ruling party legislators to Cabinet posts Wednesday in a largely cosmetic measure to relieve the burden on over-worked ministers and boost his ratings among voters.

Yoshimasa Hayashi, 48, a Harvard-educated former defense minister, was appointed minister in charge of economic and fiscal policy. Motoo Hayashi, 62, who is not related to the other new minister, became minister in charge of national public safety - a post that he has served in before.

Chief government spokesman Takeo Kawamura said the appointments would become effective Thursday.

The Cabinet positions were previously held by ministers who each handled more than one portfolio. Prime Minister Taro Aso said the appointments were intended to relieve their workload.

"We feel that these change were needed to make for a proper Cabinet," Aso told reporters on nationally televised news.

Aso has been fighting to cling to his job amid public disenchantment over the economic downturn and political scandals. Support ratings for Aso's Cabinet fell to the single digits in February before recovering to around 20 percent in response to scandals involving opposition leaders.

Asked by a reporter if the reshuffle could improve his popularity, Aso responded, "That is not for me to decide."

Mizuho Fukushima, leader of the opposition Social Democratic Party, said the reshuffle was mere posturing and practically meaningless, coming just weeks before elections that are due by September.

"The Aso government is already at the terminal stage and is falling apart. What is the reshuffle for at the last minute?" she said.

Japanese media have speculated that Aso might change the leadership in his ruling Liberal Democratic Party, roles that are separate from but more powerful than ministers.

Kyodo News agency said Aso had to scrap plans to change the top party posts after facing opposition from party heavyweights, underscoring discordance in the party and his waning influence.

Vowing to back Aso at a tough time, the newly-appointed economy and fiscal minister, Hayashi, said: "The economic and political situation is difficult. We must make sincere effort and propose good policies."

The main opposition Democratic Party, fighting scandals of its own, has not been able to loosen the grip on power of the LDP, which has ruled Japan almost continuously for more than half a century.

It seems that the prime minister Taro Aso has devised a rather hilarious idea of dealing with the opposition parties. Instead of appointing Kaoru Yosano as the economy and fiscal minister, he came up with the unrelated Hayashi brothers to deal with the DPJ's Hatoyama brothers. I wonder how this will turn out...

My guess is that an approval boost to the rather unpopular Aso Cabinet is most unlikely. Perhaps, there will be a slight increase but it will drop back down again as that the prime minister seems to be indecisive and takes forever to make a decision to the point that most people cannot even understand. Most of all, the prime minister went overboard in dismissing his long-time ally Kunio Hatoyama just to defend Nishikawa for questionable reasons. On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Japan isn't doing very good either. They seem to be involved in questionable political funding problems as well. Perhaps, the best political alignment right now would be to be unaligned as that all the political parties don't seem the slightest appealing..

[428]

Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01

Japanese leader reshuffles Cabinet



It seems that the prime minister Taro Aso has devised a rather hilarious idea of dealing with the opposition parties. Instead of appointing Kaoru Yosano as the economy and fiscal minister, he came up with the unrelated Hayashi brothers to deal with the DPJ's Hatoyama brothers. I wonder how this will turn out...

My guess is that an approval boost to the rather unpopular Aso Cabinet is most unlikely. Perhaps, there will be a slight increase but it will drop back down again as that the prime minister seems to be indecisive and takes forever to make a decision to the point that most people cannot even understand. Most of all, the prime minister went overboard in dismissing his long-time ally Kunio Hatoyama just to defend Nishikawa for questionable reasons. On the other hand, the Democratic Party of Japan isn't doing very good either. They seem to be involved in questionable political funding problems as well. Perhaps, the best political alignment right now would be to be unaligned as that all the political parties don't seem the slightest appealing..

Very helpful indeed. The recent 3 PMs are all like fail. Abe fell "ill", Fukuda "wasn't like us", and Aso is "Rozen Aso". Oh come on, where is Koizumi where you need him!?

[yezhanquan]

He's chilling out somewhere in Tokyo, I think, watching baseball and listening to Elvis.

[428]

Originally Posted by yezhanquan

He's chilling out somewhere in Tokyo, I think, watching baseball and listening to Elvis.

Yeah. He deserves a good retirement, coming to think about it. But still, Japan's government is getting nowhere.

[Shadow Kira01]

DPJ set to replace LDP as biggest party in Tokyo election: Kyodo poll

From the looks of it, most people are willing to give the DPJ a chance to take reins of the government as that hope for the LDP is no longer existent. First off, the prime minister dismissed his long-time aide Hatoyama Kunio just so that he can re-appoint Nishikawa just points out how wrong that judgement of his is. It makes no sense at all. Next is the recent cabinet reshuffle which seems odd as it is. He goes off and appoint two unrelated Hayashi into the cabinet while doing no changes at all. I get the impression that the move was in relation to the speculation that the Hatoyama brothers may team up for the upcoming general election but still.. What's the point of doing that? I cannot comprehend.

Originally Posted by yezhanquan

He's chilling out somewhere in Tokyo, I think, watching baseball and listening to Elvis.

Not really..

Its just that Koizumi is well-aware that the ruling government is in a position in which repairs are no longer possible to do. Why would an intelligent and charismatic Koizumi put himself in a disadvantageous position when he can just have fun and watch the Aso Cabinet fall instead?

[428]

Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01

Not really..

Its just that Koizumi is well-aware that the ruling government is in a position in which repairs are no longer possible to do. Why would an intelligent and charismatic Koizumi put himself in a disadvantageous position when he can just have fun and watch the Aso Cabinet fall instead?

Now we know where he is really.

[Shadow Kira01]

DPJ grabs Tokyo poll spoils / Becomes largest party in assembly; LDP left licking wounds

The DPJ's win in the Tokyo poll was its fifth straight victory in major local elections since April. Also Sunday, a candidate recommended by the DPJ won the Nara mayoral election.

The DPJ is poised to submit a no-confidence motion against the Cabinet to the Diet as early as Monday.

Taro Aso will be stepping down very soon as it seems and even if Junichiro Koizumi were to replace him, the chances of the LDP winning the upcoming general election is almost out of the question. A new era led by Hatoyama Yukio of the Democratic Party of Japan is bound to happen regardless of whatever futile attempts the ruling coaltion may attempt. Hopefully, the prime minister will accept reality that local elections are obviously related to national politics, quickly dissolve the House of Representatives and hold a general election. Time is wasted for no reason..

-----

Taking into consideration of various issues and policies, I think Hatoyama Yukio makes a much better prime minister than Taro Aso. I cannot think of a more suitable prime minister candidate than him as of now. It has also become a fact that the Democratic Party of Japan will no doubt win the upcoming general election regardless of what the ruling party do. They should just quickly dissolve the lower house and get it over with. What a waste of time..

DPJ set to become top party in Tokyo assembly after election

On Saturday, Aso was quoted as telling Kawamura, ''The results of the Tokyo assembly election are not related to national politics,'' reiterating his intention to decide by himself when to dissolve the lower house.

Still stubborn.. It seems that the prime minister don't seem to accept reality after witnessing the defeat of the LDP in every local election during the past several weeks. It is obvious that the results of local elections tend to reflect on the overall popularity of the political party on the national scale. Although this belief is quite common among political parties in multiple nations that local elections are unrelated to national politics, especially in the United States. However, contrary to popular belief, truth is that there is no reason to not relate the two.

[Autumn Demon]

Possible summer general election.

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp...pc3143AxBA_oog

[Shadow Kira01]

Aso, ruling lawmakers agree on Aug. 30 lower house election

It seems that the Aso Cabinet are still going to delay the dissolution, how lame.. What's the point of them stalling time when they are most likely going to lose anyways? After 5 straight defeats of local elections and the Tokyo Assembly Election too, shouldn't Taro Aso see this as problematic and quickly dissolve the House of Representatives as that stalling another 6 weeks isn't going to change anything.

Although Taro Aso has claimed that his reasons for stalling the dissolution was that he plans on passing the organ transplant law and the North Korean cargo inspection law but the thing is.. Any government can pass the organ transplant law, while the cargo inspection is somewhat useless to begin with. Lame excuses are lame..

Considering that the Aso Cabinet are planning to hold the general election by the end of summer on August 30th while dissolving the House of Representatives a week from now, there may be chances of a Cabinet Reshuffle and even possibly a replacement leader of the general elections but obviously.. The reason why the ruling coalition is in this position is that there are no better candidates to begin with. I don't see how the ruling coalition will win the general election even if they were to replace Taro Aso with another individual, regardless of who it is.

I have been waiting for awhile.. It is boring to see months of stalling and delaying over and over again. The faster to see a new era the better.

[Shadow Kira01]

Conflict in LDP deepens, dissidents demand Aso be replaced before poll

Chief Cabinet Secretary Takeo Kawamura told a press conference, ''I don't understand why they are criticizing (Aso) after they gave him a vote of confidence,'' in an apparent bid to hold in check further anti-Aso moves.

It would be strange if the members of the House of Representatives don't do as they did. Anybody who isn't blind can probably see and understand the situation as it stands, yet Kawamura-san seems to be an exception.

First of all, the reason why the Lower House chose to give Taro Aso a vote of confidence is that if they had done otherwise, the House of Representatives will be dissolved instantly and these members are smart enough to realize that they have little to no chances if a general election were to be held. In other words, they gave Taro Aso a vote of confidence as a means of securing their own seat as opposed to voicing actual support.

And now, these same people who gave their LDP president a vote of confidence are starting an anti-Aso movement is very reasonable as that if the Liberal Democratic Party don't do something about it, such as replacing their unpopular leader or having a bigger-scale cabinet reshuffle, entering the general election after a House of Representatives dissolution will generally yield the same result as the Tokyo Assembly Election. In other words, the DPJ will win a landslide victory while leaving the LDP in total defeat. Thus, just because the members of the House of Representatives managed to secure their seats for the time being thanks to giving Taro Aso a vote of confidence, they better make proper actions so that they won't lose their seats on August 30th.

However... From the looks of it, it is already too late for the LDP to hold the reins of the government as that they have become incapable of doing so. Supposedly, Kawamura Takeo may make a better leadership candidate than Taro Aso but he is a close-aide of Taro Aso and the fact that he is the Chief Cabinet Secretary would generally and naturally imply that it is also his fault that the LDP had faced 5 total defeats at local elections. And thus, the chief cabinet secretary cannot be a valid candidate of replacement. Pitiful..

[428]

Originally Posted by Shadow Kira01

Conflict in LDP deepens, dissidents demand Aso be replaced before poll



It would be strange if the members of the House of Representatives don't do as they did. Anybody who isn't blind can probably see and understand the situation as it stands, yet Kawamura-san seems to be an exception.

First of all, the reason why the Lower House chose to give Taro Aso a vote of confidence is that if they had done otherwise, the House of Representatives will be dissolved instantly and these members are smart enough to realize that they have little to no chances if a general election were to be held. In other words, they gave Taro Aso a vote of confidence as a means of securing their own seat as opposed to voicing actual support.

And now, these same people who gave their LDP president a vote of confidence are starting an anti-Aso movement is very reasonable as that if the Liberal Democratic Party don't do something about it, such as replacing their unpopular leader or having a bigger-scale cabinet reshuffle, entering the general election after a House of Representatives dissolution will generally yield the same result as the Tokyo Assembly Election. In other words, the DPJ will win a landslide victory while leaving the LDP in total defeat. Thus, just because the members of the House of Representatives managed to secure their seats for the time being thanks to giving Taro Aso a vote of confidence, they better make proper actions so that they won't lose their seats on August 30th.

However... From the looks of it, it is already too late for the LDP to hold the reins of the government as that they have become incapable of doing so. Supposedly, Kawamura Takeo may make a better leadership candidate than Taro Aso but he is a close-aide of Taro Aso and the fact that he is the Chief Cabinet Secretary would generally and naturally imply that it is also his fault that the LDP had faced 5 total defeats at local elections. And thus, the chief cabinet secretary cannot be a valid candidate of replacement. Pitiful..

To the man in the streets of Japan, it doesn't matter. LDP flopped 3 times already. We're very forgiving already you know. And even if DPJ wins, there isn't going to be much change. And don't even mention Japan Communist Party, they're just warped. Oh how I wish the Japan Socialist Party was still around. I miss the Murayama (Tomichii) days. [But, tellingly, Kansai people won't. He botched up the Kobe-Awaji Earthquake.]