Japanese Events

[Cosmic Eagle]

https://twitter.com/seijichishin/sta...64966285512705

The amount of flak Prof Iwata is getting from government supporters.....An expert highlights deficiencies in infection control and the counter response seems to be just excuses while shunning him. No discussion of how to improve the situation whatsoever and revising response plans for hospitals etc while failing to close the borders (though the window for that is long past admittedly)


This isn't exactly raising confidence in the country's safety if their intention is to keep the Olympics ongoing. People can scream politics all they want. Infection and mortality numbers do not lie and viruses do not discriminate. Scientists and medical personnel need to step up and take control from these beaureaucrats immediately

[Toukairin]

If the Summer Olympics have to be cancelled over safety and health issues even if that means a first since 1944 (World War 2), then so be it. They can always catch up in 2028 just like China caught up with the 2007 FIFA Women's World Cup after the 2003 tournament was moved from China to the US because of SARS.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

I would lose my job if I did that...

How's it at your area? Are people generally in heightened vigilance, washing hands, carrying sanitizer around, taking note of symptoms, know which hospital to go to if suspected etc? Or still in idgaf mode?

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

How's it at your area? Are people generally in heightened vigilance, washing hands, carrying sanitizer around, taking note of symptoms, know which hospital to go to if suspected etc? Or still in idgaf mode?

Obviously usage of masks (which don’t really help) is way up. But I don’t see any other huge changes in behavior. Schools are open and people are going to work and to restaurants and bars. I personally carry hand sanitizer around anyway but I really have no idea if many more people than usual are doing so. And if there have been specific instructions on which clinics or hospitals to go to I haven’t seen them, at least in English.

[Magin]

Out here in the countryside of Japan, it's not too much of a big deal- it's mostly a case of "please be advised about this, and keep your hands clean". Masks are consistently in use all the time anyways, though really the normal type used does nothing to prevent the disease.

My own opinion on why everyone's really making a big fuss: it's because we haven't found a cure for it yet, and it spreads INCREDIBLY easily. But we're not at SARS level yet, from what I understand. I'm not saying to underestimate this; I'm saying that people are just freaking out too much over it. My other understanding is that although younger people have died from it, the ones who are most heavily affected are folks in their 70's and 80's (and older)- which is normal for any disease.

[SeijiSensei]

About half of the people who contracted H5N1 virus died. Chinese reports put the fatality rate from the corona virus in the single digits reaching about fifteen percent among those over eighty.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Magin

Out here in the countryside of Japan, it's not too much of a big deal- it's mostly a case of "please be advised about this, and keep your hands clean". Masks are consistently in use all the time anyways, though really the normal type used does nothing to prevent the disease.

My own opinion on why everyone's really making a big fuss: it's because we haven't found a cure for it yet, and it spreads INCREDIBLY easily. But we're not at SARS level yet, from what I understand. I'm not saying to underestimate this; I'm saying that people are just freaking out too much over it. My other understanding is that although younger people have died from it, the ones who are most heavily affected are folks in their 70's and 80's (and older)- which is normal for any disease.

Honest question: You trust the inaka hospital? I have heard a lot of horror stories about inaka community hospitals that I don't really know what to think. At least being on campus means the university hospital is easily accessible. I am hoping that come April when those clinical trials underway in China are done we at least will have some therapeutic options to use against the disease


And saying the young are not affected is cold comfort to those of us with family. Fortunately my family is back in my home country but for local Japanese it doesn't cheer them much at all given the ageing population.

Chinese reports put the fatality rate from the corona virus in the single digits reaching about fifteen percent among those over eighty

Fatality rate aside, if it overwhelms the hospitals you can easily see Wuhan replicated everywhere even if it doesn't kill as much as other diseases. All your usual chronic cases like cancer, heart problems, diabetes etc are still going to need care even with this virus. This is actually the biggest danger of the virus, simply drawing resources away from the healthcare facilities.

[Toukairin]

Considering that a number of Chinese health officials, especially doctors, of a decent age range have died from the virus, it is also not of any comfort. I really don't know whom I hate the most in that clusterfuck. Health authorities in countries outside of China (especially the WHO) for downplaying the problem for so long? Or Chinese authorities for not taking appropriate measures a hell fucking lot earlier?

Just 3 weeks before the problem spilled outside of China as it did, that was the moment when the Chinese government could have closed down Wuhan with a decree that imposes emergency measures, including martial law if necessary. The other stupid thing is that Wuhan authorities allowed a short time window for people to get out of there before a full quarantine was enforced. As a result, people left the province to spread the virus everywhere. Seriously, what the fuck? If the Los Angeles metropolitan area (roughly the same population as Wuhan) was taken by storm by a dangerous virus, there would be resources and a strong military presence being deployed in the streets in no time to seal off the region.

[saya_leviathan]

AnimeJapan 2020, Family Anime Festa 2020 cancellation.

Idk where to put this since this is anime-related and a lot of productions were planning to make a lot of announcements. But it's kinda expected given the current situation and they'll probably announce via stream or something.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

Considering that a number of Chinese health officials, especially doctors, of a decent age range have died from the virus, it is also not of any comfort. I really don't know whom I hate the most in that clusterfuck. Health authorities in countries outside of China (especially the WHO) for downplaying the problem for so long? Or Chinese authorities for not taking appropriate measures a hell fucking lot earlier?

Just 3 weeks before the problem spilled outside of China as it did, that was the moment when the Chinese government could have closed down Wuhan with a decree that imposes emergency measures, including martial law if necessary. The other stupid thing is that Wuhan authorities allowed a short time window for people to get out of there before a full quarantine was enforced. As a result, people left the province to spread the virus everywhere. Seriously, what the fuck? If the Los Angeles metropolitan area (roughly the same population as Wuhan) was taken by storm by a dangerous virus, there would be resources and a strong military presence being deployed in the streets in no time to seal off the region.

I'm not so sure about that. Especially considering the US are the birthplace of the antivax movement, I'm really not sure about your claim they would be a role model in the case of a sudden public health crisis.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

Considering that a number of Chinese health officials, especially doctors, of a decent age range have died from the virus, it is also not of any comfort. I really don't know whom I hate the most in that clusterfuck. Health authorities in countries outside of China (especially the WHO) for downplaying the problem for so long? Or Chinese authorities for not taking appropriate measures a hell fucking lot earlier?

Both. To Chinese people the CCP bears the most blame. To those outside, screw governments for prioritizing the CCP's overly thin skin. I mean they themselves have an imposed lockdown on tour groups exiting China. Their protests if other governments bar people with China travel history don't hold any water. No country except North Korea IIRC sealed their border the moment news of Wuhan pneumonia disease broke as far back as early January. Even my home country which is generally acknowledged to have the best response so far, didn't.

On another note, it seems quality, and I do mean top quality that only a handful of medical systems can provide, ICU care is crucial for recovery of serious cases. Only a few countries have demonstrated that so far......I don't know if Japan has many hospitals that can provide that. I would have expected Korea to fare better with the mortality rate but then again, maybe only Seoul National Uni and a few other hospitals can really handle this.

Young doctors dying is not unexpected sadly. They are on the frontlines so they bear the brunt of viral exposure and are overworked so not in good health either. Also their own hospitals are at max capacity so who knows if the care they received was as good as it could have been at other times

[Magin]

Well, you know things are getting REALLY bad when PM Abe makes the following suggestion...

All Schools in Japan asked to close/

This does affect me, as I'm an ALT out here. Then again, it's also possible that because I'm in the inaka, life will continue as normal.

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

I'm not so sure about that. Especially considering the US are the birthplace of the antivax movement, I'm really not sure about your claim they would be a role model in the case of a sudden public health crisis.

I was speaking about reaction from the federal government in the event of dangerous outbreak. That is an interesting topic to consider; I read a couple of articles about the rather timid reaction from the PLA when they are supposed to help local authorities with aid, delivery, transportation and other logistics.

In comparison, the US had deployed over 4,000 troops in West Africa to help global and local health organizations with aid delivery, logistics, transportation, and building 17 field hospitals with a 100-bed capacity for each during the 2014 Ebola crisis. The US military have said at the beginning of the month that they already prepared quarantine housing for 1,000 in the current coronavirus crisis. Hence that number should be a lot higher by now in the preparations.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Magin

Well, you know things are getting REALLY bad when PM Abe makes the following suggestion...

All Schools in Japan asked to close/

I heard this on the BBC this morning and was shocked. Does the Abe Government know how disruptive this will be on family life, especially in households with two working parents? Will parents get leave (paid or unpaid) that will not count against their continued employment and status in their jobs? I can see mothers asking for leave to stay home with their kids. Even if the leave is unpaid, will they be guaranteed they can return to their current jobs after the schools reopen? What about the employers suddenly faced with loss of staff? Abe's much-touted project to bring women into the workforce could suffer a serious blow here. Has there been any public discussion about these issues since the request was made of the schools?

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

I was speaking about reaction from the federal government in the event of dangerous outbreak. That is an interesting topic to consider; I read a couple of articles about the rather timid reaction from the PLA when they are supposed to help local authorities with aid, delivery, transportation and other logistics.

In comparison, the US had deployed over 4,000 troops in West Africa to help global and local health organizations with aid delivery, logistics, transportation, and building 17 field hospitals with a 100-bed capacity for each during the 2014 Ebola crisis. The US military have said at the beginning of the month that they already prepared quarantine housing for 1,000 in the current coronavirus crisis. Hence that number should be a lot higher by now in the preparations.

Let me ask you a few questions. How well did the federal government do in Flint, Michigan? Where do you think they'll stand on science vs short term business interest issues? Didn't Trump fire the CDC's pandemic response team and decrease its budget?

All that to say... It doesn't matter how much the US military flexes its impressive muscles. I don't share your optimism.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I heard this on the BBC this morning and was shocked. Does the Abe Government know how disruptive this will be on family life, especially in households with two working parents? Will parents get leave (paid or unpaid) that will not count against their continued employment and status in their jobs? I can see mothers asking for leave to stay home with their kids. Even if the leave is unpaid, will they be guaranteed they can return to their current jobs after the schools reopen? What about the employers suddenly faced with loss of staff? Abe's much-touted project to bring women into the workforce could suffer a serious blow here. Has there been any public discussion about these issues since the request was made of the schools?

Abe knows all this. it's about a last-ditch desperation attempt to save the Olympics. The IOC has given Japan until late May to contain the outbreak or face cancellation, so even though that's probably impossible he's going to try every play he can now, because losing the Olympics would be a catastrophic financial blow.

[TinyRedLeaf]

May is not an unrealistic deadline for seeing a possible decline, if not an end, to the spread of Covid-19.

COVID-19 may be a mild illness for most people

Singapore (Feb 26): In temperate countries, influenza typically causes seasonal outbreaks during the winter seasons, and outbreaks tend to be worse when there is a shift or major change in the type of influenza circulating that year.

We do not know about the seasonality of COVID-19 yet, but SARS disappeared with the warm weather in China and we hope that this will be the case with COVID-19. So, even if COVID-19 returns next year, many people will have some immunity to it and so, we expect that it will not be so bad.

Two groups of people who have been affected differently by the virus. The first is children who may not be as vulnerable to the disease as adults. Both SARS and MERS did not infect many children. They also tended to have much milder symptoms when infected. Influenza also causes mild infection in children, as does COVID-19.

However, children with influenza tend to shed more virus and for longer, thus often making the adults around them sick. We do not know if we will see children with minimal symptoms who still shed the virus with COVID-19. (My note: In other words, it's more a case of protecting adults from infectious children, rather than protecting children against infection!)

CNA

The linked article was co-authored by Assistant Professor Jyoti Somani, Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, NUS; and Professor Paul Ananth Tambyah, Department of Medicine, Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine, NUS and President, Asia Pacific Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infection.

Prof Tambyah, incidentally, is a senior leader in one of Singapore's more prominent opposition parties. In other words, not a flag-bearer for the ruling party. If he wants to be critical, he would be (and indeed, he has been very critical of government healthcare policy as a whole). But he's also one of Singapore's leading experts on epidemiology. His professional judgment comes before politics. In short, he's a very trusted authority here on such matters.

EDIT
I might as well add some general advice, for going on with life as normal in a time of coronavirus.

1) Face masks are meant more to protect you, if you are sick, from transmitting disease to other people, rather than protecting you from other sick people. Do not rush to buy masks: It's better to reserve as much of them for frontline responders in hospitals, who need it more urgently than you do in the general community.

2) If you insist on wearing a mask even when you're healthy, then please wear them properly. It must completely cover both your mouth and nose for it be effective. Avoid touching the mask, because you may inadvertently contaminate it, in which case, you're much more at risk of contracting a disease from wearing a mask than when you're not.

3) Contrary to sporadic reports, the overwhelming majority of experts believe that SARS-CoV2 is transmitted by droplets. There is no solid evidence yet of aerosol transmission, which means the chance of catching the disease by transient infection is very low.

4) Droplet transmission of SARS-CoV2 works the same way it does with common flu. A sick person sneezes or coughs, releasing droplets of the virus, which sticks on surfaces. A health person touches these droplets by accident, and then transmits the virus into his body by then touching his face, mouth, nose or eyes.

5) In other words, your best defence against infection remains frequent and thorough hand-washing with soap. In the absence of water-and-soap, alcohol-based hand sanitisers will also work, but bear in mind that water-and-soap is much better than sanitisers.

6) Wash your hands thoroughly! You can't just splash water and rinse. Scrub your palms, fingers, between fingers, fingertips and nails and the back of your hands for at least 20 seconds. Rinse and dry thoroughly.

7) And avoid touching your face! Your face, mouth and nose and eyes are sacred. Just don't touch them, or you may end up accidentally infecting yourself. Goes without saying that you should avoid touching your hair as well.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Japan won't be hitting the 20s-30s for temperature until June earliest though. Especially not Hokkaido.



https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1...791v1.full.pdf

^ For relationship between temperature and 2019-ncov transmission





One also wonders if the high amount of UV exposure in SG is also impacting the virus

[Guardian Enzo]

Most of the big cities on Honshu will see plenty of days in the 20s by April.

[Grifis]

Give it time, like 3 months. It was around that long before things blew up uncontrollably in Wuhan. What's under control in China isn't the virus but the information. The virus can remain dormant for a few so it's impossible to prevent infection. I may have to cancel my trip to Japan.