North Korea Situation

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

A Chinese ground invasion backed up by US Naval forces would be an impressive feat really. Even if the only thing the Americans do is distract the North Koreans into looking South and East rather than North and West.

And what are they going to see if they look South and East? Seoul.

I wonder if the thousands of dead in that city would think this plan so "impressive." From a military analyst I heard the other day, the artillery emplacements targeting Seoul have been substantially hardened over the years and would be difficult to destroy from the air with conventional weapons.

I'm more curious why some power hasn't managed to assassinate Kim Jong-un. America's history in these matters is pretty suspect (cf., Castro, the mob, and exploding cigars), but what about China or Russia or even Japan? Is Kim's coterie of bodyguards and the paranoid insularity of the DPRK enough to keep him alive?

[Ithekro]

If the North Koreans are too busy watching the American Navy exercising off the coast of Korea, and keeping an eye on the South Koreans, they won't be watching the Chinese coming in from the North and West. That's what I was thinking about.

[Key Board]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I'm more curious why some power hasn't managed to assassinate Kim Jong-un. America's history in these matters is pretty suspect (cf., Castro, the mob, and exploding cigars), but what about China or Russia or even Japan? Is Kim's coterie of bodyguards and the paranoid insularity of the DPRK enough to keep him alive?

I'm led to believe that it's hard to get good intel on NK.
IIRC, we didn't even know how Kim Jong Un looked like until it was officially announced
A fact made infamous by that Homefront game

UPDATE:

Foreign journalists in North Korea told to prepare for 'big' event

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-no...source=twitter

[Archon_Wing]

Originally Posted by Key Board

what motivates Trump is usually his projected image. He's treating this presidency like a reality show and he wants to show off.
what motivates Kim Jong Un is own self survival and severe distrust. He has no qualms killing off family, probably out of paranoia, to ensure his position

If Kim were to interpret the recent actions in Syria as Trump willing get his hands messy, and not just saber rattling. how would Kim react?
How would his inner circle (what's left of it?) react

Someone who is cornered and has nothing else to lose can do horrible things

But wouldn't it make more sense to try to keep up one's position as ruler and a comfortable life? Now granted, we're not exactly dealing with rational people on either end, but there's a reason why they wouldn't just wantonly have fired something already and that is the desire for self preservation is quite strong.

This might be a game of chicken that has worked for a long time that will backfire.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

A Chinese ground invasion backed up by US Naval forces would be an impressive feat really. Even if the only thing the Americans do is distract the North Koreans into looking South and East rather than North and West.

I can't see why China would do such a thing though; that seems like doing most of the work with little to gain and taking on most of the trouble. (US being the example in many places across the world). Any kind of invasion is going to be really ugly, given how many defenders there are, so nobody wants to be the last to sit in this game of musical chairs.

[Key Board]

If the US promises to close or reduce US bases in Korea, maybe...

that's a very big "maybe"

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Kakurin-san

Yes you should cancel the trip. People here are stockpiling hard on canned food and the government will launch a lottery next week for places in the public bunkers.

You need a lottery to enter a public bunker??

[GDB]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

You need a lottery to enter a public bunker??

How else are you going to decide who gets in? Space is vastly more limited than the number of people who would want to get in.

[Cosmic Eagle]

In most places you just head to the deepest subway once the sirens sound.... And no one is going to be dumb enough to stand outside scanning tickets/papers whatever

[Sackett]

The only reason I can see China deciding to invade N. Korea would be because they would prefer that to the US and South Korea invading N. Korea.

N. Korea serves as a buffer state, but it has started biting the hand that feeds it...

The way I see it, there are two possibilities:

First, there has been a miscommunication and Trump thinks China has given him a free hand, when China didn't mean to do that at all, but rather just wanted to express that they are not in control of N. Korean actions.

Second, Trump is rattling the saber, while China wrings it's hands denying it's planning anything, but it's all cover for Chinese action against North Korea. Drawing their attention to the US movements instead of the Chinese. This action could be a full invasion, or maybe an assassination of Kim Jong-un with Chinese backing of the new North Korean leadership.

If the first is the case then I expect we will see a missile attack on N. Korea in response to whatever the next North Korean provocation is, followed by artillery strike against Seoul killing most of the civilian population, followed by the Korean war restarting, Tokyo being hit by N. Korean missiles, and eventual nuclear holocaust on the Korean peninsula. 20 million dead.

If the second is the case it will have it's own problems, and will result in deaths in North Korea, but hopefully South Korea and Japan will not be effected.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

I don't know why people assume that Japan would be nuked in the case of a Korean war restarting. Beside the fact that we have no evidence that they have missiles that could do this, in the case of a war they would want to keep the nukes for defence. Nuking Japan doesn't aid in their own survival. It's not like Japan is a physical threat to them.

[Ithekro]

Nuking Japan (which is not original...been there, done that), would just result in North Korea being nuked....very hard.

[Sackett]

Who said anything about nuking Japan?

I said Scud missiles hitting Tokyo, which is fully in N. Korean capabilities. Worst case they would use chemical weapons. The purpose would be to try and threaten Japan into not supporting the US in a conflict with North Korea.

Of course it won't work, but when cornered people tend to try strategies with very small rates of success.

The nukes would go off on the Korean peninsula. (Which I even specified in my post).

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Nuking Japan (which is not original...been there, done that), would just result in North Korea being nuked....very hard.

Or that the very least, it would immediately case China to invade North Korea. Because at that stage China will be threatened too. If they can nuke Japan, then they could potentially nuke China's major cities.

[Botan_TM]

Originally Posted by Sackett

Who said anything about nuking Japan?

I said Scud missiles hitting Tokyo, which is fully in N. Korean capabilities. Worst case they would use chemical weapons. The purpose would be to try and threaten Japan into not supporting the US in a conflict with North Korea.

Wouldn't anyway Japan just shot down Scout missile before it reach land?

Problems could start with massive barrage, which forcefully break through AA defence.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

Wouldn't anyway Japan just shot down Scout missile before it reach land?

Problems could start with massive barrage, which forcefully break through AA defence.

But that assumes Japan was even a major target. Current tensions are literally unrelated to Japan.

North Korea isn't the Soviet Union, or S.P.E.C.T.R.E from 007. It doesn't have the resources to both attack South Korea AND attack Japan.

[Key Board]

My point is that countries closer to North Korea are in greater risk if arms conflict breaks out, and US territories are at lesser risks

if arms conflict does break out I think the real danger to the US will come after the conflict

Let's assume North Korea collapses because of pressure and becomes a non functional state. You're creating a power vacuum in a militarized country, and that's going spiral down quickly.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Key Board

My point is that countries closer to North Korea are in greater risk if arms conflict breaks out, and US territories are at lesser risks

if arms conflict does break out I think the real danger to the US will come after the conflict

Let's assume North Korea collapses because of pressure and becomes a non functional state. You're creating a power vacuum in a militarized country, and that's going spiral down quickly.

Not really. China has plenty of experience in clamping down on conquered territories. Ask Tibet.

[Kakurin]

China's interest in the Korean peninsula is centered around three aspects:

1) China wants no part of taking over the economic sinkhole that North Korea would be.
2) China is weary of anything that could trigger a collapse of the North Korean regime with the potential of its nuclear weapons disappearing and a refugee wave into the Chinese northeast.
3) China does not want US military presence, or the presence of an US ally, at the Yalu river.

China's North Korea policy is stuck between the fact that they, for the reasons above, can't abandon North Korea and a lack of influence upon North Korean policy making. Pyongyang understands this very well, which is why they have continuously launched steps that upset China with their missile and nuclear tests, knowing that the maximum the Chinese will do is to support a (ultimately meaningless) UN resolution and the restriction of some economic goods.

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Not really. China has plenty of experience in clamping down on conquered territories. Ask Tibet.

It takes some disingenuousness to compare Tibet with its population of 3 million to North Korea and its population of nearly 25 million... unless of course you are assuming that like 80% of North Koreans die in case of war.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Kakurin-san

It takes some disingenuousness to compare Tibet with its population of 3 million to North Korea and its population of nearly 25 million... unless of course you are assuming that like 80% of North Koreans die in case of war.

It really isn't that much harder. China is currently controlling a population 50 times that of North Korea.

Regardless, your list of problems are easy to solve. China can simply shoot anyone who tried to cross the river, and in the mean time set up a new government in North Korea after their invasion. There is no reason why China needed to let anyone cross their boarders, and they have no problem machinegunning anyone who tries. China would do that to their own people, never mind foreigners.

[Blueknight78]

man i really feel like that NK leader is really a crazy dude, he is clear asking for war with almost everyone close to him and USA, if usa decide to attack with a chine support even if NK can does "some damage" to near close countries like SK chine and japan the damage he can do will be little based on how everyone together can just "wipe the whole country" in a very short of time if they go for a allied attack without count nuke bombs.