Russia invasion of Ukraine

[GDB]

Originally Posted by TheForsaken

let me remind you, they, not the West, are 80 ~ 90% of humanity

Considering "the West" consists of North America, most if not all of South America, Europe, Australia, and New Zealand at minimum, I struggle to comprehend how you think that's only 10-20% of humanity.

[MeoTwister5]

Russian troops are apparently in Kiev now.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by Magin

I feel like this is the key.

If the US (or really, The UN) REALLY wanted to, they could step in and do something. unfortunately, for the ast ~70 years, we've been living in a MAD world- both ways, though I'll spell it out and say Mutually Assured Destruction. Anyone who COULD stand up to Russia... would cause all the nuclear arsenals to be launched or some such. And that's not the worst part; the worst part is that the Atomic Bomb is child's play compared to what we're capable of now.

No, the UN and the West would rather see Ukraine fall than risk nuclear warfare. Hell, I'm pretty sure NATO's whole reason for existence is to PREVENT nuclear war- anything else goes so long as we aren't launching nukes. We're about to find out just how miserably NATO may have failed, though.

How powerful are nuclear weapons nowadays really? Yes they're capable of leveling entire countries but Putin is just as aware that there are no winners in a nuclear contest. I'll believe either side pulling the trigger when I actually see it, at which point I'll most likely not be around much longer. More than anything else these people want to consolidate their power for all eternity and the fastest way to sabotage yourself is taking a nuke to the capital.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Magin

I feel like this is the key.

If the US (or really, The UN) REALLY wanted to, they could step in and do something. unfortunately, for the ast ~70 years, we've been living in a MAD world- both ways, though I'll spell it out and say Mutually Assured Destruction. Anyone who COULD stand up to Russia... would cause all the nuclear arsenals to be launched or some such. And that's not the worst part; the worst part is that the Atomic Bomb is child's play compared to what we're capable of now.

No, the UN and the West would rather see Ukraine fall than risk nuclear warfare. Hell, I'm pretty sure NATO's whole reason for existence is to PREVENT nuclear war- anything else goes so long as we aren't launching nukes. We're about to find out just how miserably NATO may have failed, though.

One more thing I'm half curious about... Putin IS getting up in age- he turns 70 this year. That's... a bit on the older side. While I'm certain that just like Crimea, he's seeing just how much he can get away with... another part of me wonders if he's at the point where he's going "Fuck it, we're all gonna die soon anyways. Might just as well speed up the process so I can die with all my power and money" or some such line of thinking.

You know, nothing could stop the West sending their intelligence operatives to help Ukraine like they did in the 80s in Afghanistan, and turn each Ukrainian town into a mini Stalingrad.

[MeoTwister5]

I'd think that the US knows enough with what happened in Afghanistan and the Mujahideen that sending in their agents in Ukraine shouldn't be done lightly.

[Tactics]

Originally Posted by Magin

One more thing I'm half curious about... Putin IS getting up in age- he turns 70 this year. That's... a bit on the older side. While I'm certain that just like Crimea, he's seeing just how much he can get away with... another part of me wonders if he's at the point where he's going "Fuck it, we're all gonna die soon anyways. Might just as well speed up the process so I can die with all my power and money" or some such line of thinking.

I really doubt this.

I'm not a war expert, just someone who happens to like strategy games, but I can say this is not something done by desperation of old age.
This level of decision making can only be performed through long planning and strong discipline. Neither power hunger nor desperate leader capable to do this.

Imagine a playing board for othello or reversi or go, up to your imagination which one you more familiar with.
Putin already turned every side of corners into his territory, purposefully leave the middle part of board open for whoever up to challenge.
Its not an easy turn the table situation as the most important part to achieve it would be by declaring support to current Ukraine president, which is another can of worms.

You don't even need nuclear; even by "Fine, I'm wrong and you guys are right" scenario, it'll be bitter outcome for the opponent, not him.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Tactics

I really doubt this.
I'm not a war expert, just someone who happens to like strategy games, but I can say this is not something done by desperation of old age.
This level of decision making can only be performed through long planning and strong discipline. Neither power hunger nor desperate leader capable to do this.

One does not exclude the other. It is clear that this invasion has been years in the making, but it is also clear that putin has painted himself into a corner. His goal is making Russia a superpower again, which is as likely as the UK becoming one again. He is gambling into making the west bow to his demands, the ones he sent the USANATO are only the initial ones, he has a long wish list and that is the reason why the west is not going to grant him any wishes.

As things stand now, if I were Sweden or Finland, I would be asking for an express membership to NATO like if my life depended on it, putin is unplugged.

[mangamuscle]

The situation is changing so quickly, first we got putin calling for negotiations, which if we remember his negotiation with NATO/USA, it just means he wants them to surrender asap and any paper he signs he can backtrack if he pleases:

Vladimir Putin says Russia ready to negotiate with Ukraine in ‘high-level talks’

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2023212.html

Now he saying that Ukranian army should seize power because their government is full of drug adicts and neonazis:

Putin tells Ukrainian military to ‘take power into own hands’ and overthrow Zelensky

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-b2023350.html

seems to me atm putin has the patience of a five years old

[Sheba]

He want to demilitarize Ukraine. What a fucking joke. Just tell the world Ukraine is your rightful clay, all doubts should be cast aside.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

As things stand now, if I were Sweden or Finland, I would be asking for an express membership to NATO like if my life depended on it, putin is unplugged.

Today, Russian Foreign Ministry speaker was threatening Finland and Sweden with military consequences if they join NATO. Hard to say at this point what of it is sabre-rattling bluff and what of it is real existing lunacy.

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

seems to me atm putin has the patience of a five years old

Or Putin and his henchmen are nervous about prospects of urban warfare in Kyiv, Odessa and Kharkiv. Not only would it be costly to the Russian army, reducing a significant portion of their mobility and armour advantage, it would also mean bringing in heavy firepower to prevail. Not sure how long the Russian public would put up with heavy Russian casualties combined with the image of Russian forces destroying cities that are so deeply tied with the "Great Patriotic War" such as Kyiv, Odessa or Kharkiv.

Overall, I feel that the Russian invasion is not going quite as smoothly as the Kremlin might have hoped for. Of course the Russians have total supremacy over the Ukrainian army, but this is not the US against Iraq level of dominance. There are more clips and images floating around of destroyed Russian equipment and dead or captured Russian soldiers than Putin would like, even if Ukraine's claims are surely significantly overstating Russian losses.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Kakurin

Of course the Russians have total supremacy over the Ukrainian army

Only if you mean "air and sea" supremacy. On the ground they don't have it and they do not have precision equipment to use their air and sea supremacy to fight land troops. Not to mention Ukraine is quite vast and urban warfare can be quite difficult, as the war in Syria showed.

I think Mike Tyson's words of wisdom must be haunting putin atm "Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face".

[ramlaen]

Lets not kid ourselves, Ukraine's army not folding like expected is not a shortcoming of the Russian army. It has already encircled Kyiv in less than 48 hours with only a third of its available forces.

[Jaden]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

As things stand now, if I were Sweden or Finland, I would be asking for an express membership to NATO like if my life depended on it, putin is unplugged.

This sentiment is certainly more popular than ever right now in Finland, since it's getting easier to imagine a scenario where that might be useful. Our Russian relations and trade agreements are probably dumpstered now anyway, so what's there to lose?

Up until now, the majority of the population has been against NATO membership, but we may have just gotten over the hump, and it could actually happen. Sweden may not be quite as enthusiastic.

[AnimeFan188]

Ukraine's Capital Kyiv Braces For A Major Battle With Encroaching
Russian Forces

"As Russian forces continue their push on Ukraine's capital Kyiv, as well as make
advances along other fronts, President Vladimir Putin has effectively called for the
Ukrainian military to stage a coup and implicitly threatened strikes that could kill
civilians. This all follows a large Russian missile barrage on Kyiv earlier this morning."

See:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...russian-forces


===================================


Russia strikes merchant ships in Black Sea as it launches amphibious
assault on Ukraine

"According to the Ukrainian defense ministry, Russia launched missiles at Namura
Queen, hitting Panama flagged bulk carrier’s stern. A fire broke out on the ship, and a
fire tow was called. Ukraine responded to the emergency and the situation is under
control, according to the defense ministry.

The second ship that was targeted, and hit, by Russian missiles, as reported by the
Ukrainian defense ministry, is the Moldova-flagged oil tanker Millenial Spirit. The attack
was also confirmed by the Naval Agency of the Republic of Moldova, who said the ship
was in the neutral waters of the Black Sea at the time of the attack. The agency added
that the source of the missile launch was unknown."

See:

https://defbrief.com/2022/02/25/russ...lt-on-ukraine/


===================================


Ukraine Says Chernobyl Radiation Has Exceeded Safe Levels, Staff
Held Hostage, Fears ‘Planetary Environmental Disaster’

"Russia has seized control over the nuclear and radiation facilities at Chernobyl, a move
that Ukrainian officials told Motherboard constitutes a war crime and has already kicked
up radioactive dust. In a statement to Motherboard, the Ukrainian government said
that employees at the facility have been “detained” by Russian forces and are not being
allowed to rotate through normal safety protocols."

See:

https://www.vice.com/en/article/4awb...ental-disaster


===================================


Ukrainians Google ‘how to make a molotov cocktail’ after defense
minister’s call to arms

"Ukrainians flocked online Friday to look up a recipe: molotov cocktails.

They did so after the country’s deputy defense minister, Hanna Maliar, urged civilians to
help “resist” Russian invasion forces, which attacked Ukraine on Thursday and neared
the capital, Kyiv, on Friday."

See:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...rms/ar-AAUiYIH


===================================


Ukraine Military Calls on Citizens With Hobby Drones to Help Kyiv

"Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense has called on all citizens of Kyiv who own hobby drones
to bring them in and help monitor the city as Russia invades, according to a new
Facebook post by the military. Even if people don’t know how to fly their own drones
very well they’re still being encouraged to bring them in so that experienced drone pilots
can put them to good use during this critical time."

See:

https://gizmodo.com/ukraine-military...-to-1848592986


===================================


‘It’s not rational’: Putin’s bizarre speech wrecks his once pragmatic image

"Looking dead-eyed into the camera on Friday, Vladimir Putin gave one of the most
bizarre speeches of his 22 years as Russia’s leader, a directive that managed to sound
alarming even in a week when he has ordered tanks into Ukraine and missile strikes on
Kyiv."

See:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ragmatic-image

[serenade_beta]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

Lets not kid ourselves, Ukraine's army not folding like expected is not a shortcoming of the Russian army. It has already encircled Kyiv in less than 48 hours with only a third of its available forces.

Since Russia has a larger force, if the fight continues, there is no way Ukraine can survive on its own.
It really is a shame seeing every country just sitting back, even though if Ukraine falls, that results in Russia getting more power, and there will be one less country out there from preventing Putin from attacking other countries afterwards.
Surely the "let's stand around and watch Hitler from a distance" need not repeat itself

[ramlaen]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/25/u...a-ukraine.html

The Biden admin gave intel to China in hopes that China would dissuade Russia, instead China shared the intel with Russia...

[Key Board]

Giving it a week before Russian forces announced they “incriminating “ evidence in Ukraine that Hunter Biden rigged the elections and drinks baby blood

//

[mangamuscle]

Russia vetoes U.N. Security action on Ukraine as China abstains

https://www.reuters.com/world/russia...ns-2022-02-25/

China abstained, which means they are only looking at how to profit from putin's war, they are not into being "best friends" with Russia.

United Arab Emirates and India abstained, which at best means they want the USA to give them something in exchange and at worst this means they will not cut ties with putin over the invasion.

Brazil & Mexico voted in favor, so, even evil has standards! Being autocrats does not mean said presidents want to be seen as collaborators of the invasion.

Heck, even three African nations voted in favor.

[Guardian Enzo]

Why "even" three African nations? Yeah the continent is hardly a model of liberal democracy as a whole but they more than anybody know the horrors of imperialist aggression. The Kenyan UN ambassador gave an incredibly moving speech about the invasion.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Why "even" three African nations? Yeah the continent is hardly a model of liberal democracy as a whole but they more than anybody know the horrors of imperialist aggression. The Kenyan UN ambassador gave an incredibly moving speech about the invasion.

My intention was not to be condescending, I was merely lazy to explain that Russia (like China) has increased their pre$ence in Africa (and latin america also, i.e. Venezuela & Argentina). I was too lazy to check if said three nations had had some recent economical ties with Russia.
-------------------------------
As a side note, Russia invaded Ukraine's "Snake island" and killed a dozen border guards. What I think is most unsettling is that said island is 45 kilometers of Romania's coast, if china has fortified their man made islands, I have no doubt putin will turn this place into a fortress to bully in that side of the black sea (which no doubt he wants to claim as his own).