Russia invasion of Ukraine

[mangamuscle]

For anyone not looking, while putin (supposedly) yesterday was visiting the kerch bridge, Ukraine and the EU gave a one two punch that will leave the kremlin reeling for weeks to come. Of course I am talking about the drone attacks on russian air bases and the 60 euros limit per barrel to russian oil.

Quoting Al Jolson's in the 1927 film The Jazz Singer, 'you ain't heard nuttin' yet'

[mangamuscle]

An autocratic leaning president with elections next year thinking about invading his neighbour (whose military is an order of magnitude smaller) because he clearly thinks they have no right for self-determination and would want them to be again part of a long lost empire.
Of course, I am talking of turkey's erdogan clearly stating he plans to invade the Kurds land in Syria. This begs the question, will other countries support the Kurds and manage to push back turkey's army? Those iranian Shahid drone's have proved to be quite destructive and who knows what russian weapons might make the leap from armenia/iran to north-east syria.

One way or the other this might turn into a mirror image of the Ukranian invasion, only smaller in scale and in the long run might make erdogan more hostile towards the west.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63678601

A BBC news article that mentions why a lot of Taiwanese are willing to trek to Ukraine, even though they don't have informal relations.

Basically, they see the Russian invasion as one for China.

Also mentions that there's at least one Taiwanese guy in the Georgia Legion.

This is in contrast to mainland Chinese who do sign up in the legion. Most of them are either dissidents (self-exiled) or those who are long-term residents overseas (usually Ukraine).

[Key Board]

It feels like this is still a waiting game between who runs out of resources first. And there's a lot of fog of war.

It's not a happy picture.

Am I wrong?

//

[Sheba]

They are likely trying to gather resources and fool the other side into thinking they are doing nothing.

Winter will be long, and filled with the shrieks of "Peace-Loving" Karens and "Muh Both Sides" begging Ukrainians to just surrender so their elders dont freeze at home, the same elders they were willing to forget until those were convenient for whatever cause. Because it is funny how "Muh Both Sides" and whataboutists ALWAYS beg the Ukrainians to stop but NOT the Russians. If they dies and meet their grandparents, they have no right to claim they could do better than the cowards who threw Czechoslovakia under the bus. They had their occasion and they failed to step up to the take a firm stand against a tyrant.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Key Board

It feels like this is still a waiting game between who runs out of resources first.

Non, non, it is a waiting game until the ground freezes completely. Ukraine is not running out of resources, quite the opposite. Meanwhile, russia is like nazi germany in wwii, woefully unprepared for winter (which will be brutal this year).

A vlogger I follow said (without any proof) that situation in donetsk is so dire they have started to conscript females! The logic is that if the people in charge of new recruits (the local police?) does not fill their quota, they are next in line.

Meanwhile russia keeps throwing their civilians (mostly minorities) into the meat grinder. The russian air force is mostly nerfed because ukraine has been blowing the fuel depots where they store airplane fuel. The russian navy raison d'etre is to fire missiles which will run out sooner rather than later.

Meanwhile putin cancels his end of year live conference, even with smoke and mirrors his spin team can't make this year (or the next one) look good.

Oh, but putin expects Ukraine to cede the invaded territories as a first step for peace talks. Meanwhile, while people are distracted:

Russia deploys defense missile system on Kuril island near Japan

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/12/06/w...ntl/index.html

This deployment comes a year after Russia set up the Bastion systems on the island of Matua, in the central part of the Kuril ridge, the ministry said in a statement.

Remember, those land to air s-300 can be refitted to hit land targets, granted, with an abysmal accuracy, but who needs it to hit civilian targets in a country as densely populated as Japan?

[Key Board]

I feel at this point, Tucker Carlson's home needs to be raided.

Because the things he is saying is beyond suspicious

//

[Ithekro]

Originally Posted by Key Board

I feel at this point, Tucker Carlson's home needs to be raided.

Because the things he is saying is beyond suspicious

//

What silly thing is he going on about now?

[Key Board]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

What silly thing is he going on about now?

https://www.mediamatters.org/fox-new...t-christianity

He's claiming that Ukraine, a nation that is over 60% Orthodox Christianity is waging a war against Christianity

This is a dog whistle. What's he's REALLY saying is "look at this Jewish man. You can't trust him"

//

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Key Board

He's claiming that Ukraine, a nation that is over 60% Orthodox Christianity is waging a war against Christianity

There are two posibilities:

1) He has ran out of fresh material and after alex jones lost his trial it is no longer safe to make shit about what happens within US borders.

2) He is receiving fat wads of dollars from russia for making shit about Ukraine. There is the possibility that he is so deluded as to really think said money comes from maga followers, but after a while it would be just self denial.
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Some Republicans refused to attend Zelensky's address to Congress, a protest of what they claim are unrestrained dollars heading out of the US

Now that is cute coming from the party that wasted billions in iraq and afghanistan. Removing saddam hussein from power only benefited oil companies and could have been achieved by a well placed (and orders of magnitude cheaper) bomb or missile.
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Seems like yesterday was the day the ruble re-started its death spiral, probably due to the one two punch of the EU cap to gas prices and the russian gas pipeline that goes thru Ukraine and the black sea blowing up the very same day.

[Yu Ominae]

A Sky News report on investigating in Kherson of Russian soldiers trying to take Ukrainian orphans away. The villagers managed to hide most of them away.

[mangamuscle]

Take it with a big pinch of salt, but supposedly Belarus will enter the fry in a last attempt to capture Kiev. If this really happens it would mean that putin has realized he is out of options to win, but fails to realize that pushing lukashenko into Ukraine would only mean that belarus will fall into the west sphere of influence.

On the other front, I would expect news this coming weekend, winter is coming!

[Roger Rambo]

So Russia's strategy to freeze Europe into submission and force them to cut off military aid is going very well.

Spoiler for France to send light tanks to Ukraine:

The French Defense Ministry said Thursday it will soon hold talks with its Ukrainian counterpart to arrange for the delivery of armored combat vehicles in what France’s presidency says will be the first time this type of Western-made wheeled tank destroyer will be given to the Ukrainian military.

Discussions will include the delivery timetable and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the equipment, the ministry said.

Designated as “light tanks” in French, the AMX-10 RC carries a 105-milimeter cannon and two machine guns. It’s primarily designed for reconnaissance missions and has enough armor to protect against light infantry weapons, according to the French defense ministry. They have wheels rather than tracks, allowing it to be more mobile than heavy tanks.

Spoiler for United States and Germany to send Bradley and Marder IFV's to Ukraine:

The US will provide its Bradley Fighting Vehicles while Germany is sending its Marder vehicles, the leaders said Thursday in a joint statement. Germany also will provide Ukraine a Patriot battery — the second headed to the country after the US said last month that it would send one of the powerful air-defense systems.

President Joe Biden discussed the moves in a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Thursday.

“President Biden and Chancellor Scholz expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed,” the leaders said in the statement.

Not western Main Battle Tanks, but this a pretty notable escalation to send modern western AFV. Even if they're all light for the moment.

Though it's notable that NATO still seems to be going full swing in trying to acquire and then upgrade as many Soviet tanks for Ukraine. I wonder if this is part of a strategy to bypass the logistical hurdle of Ukraine adopting western MBT's, by continuing to send them Soviet derived tanks while sending sophisticated but logistically lighter western IFV's.

[Renegade334]

Well, they better be light tanks, because Ukraine has this biannual phenomenon called rasputitsa that just hates heavy wheeled vehicles (and even the medium ones) that try to wander away from the asphalt roads. We're lucky it's winter and the ground is frozen solid, so the RCR can float on top of the very fertile but also very muddy soil. Tracked, otherwise, remains a wiser choice compared to wheeled, especially if you're hauling several metric tons of armor and serious firepower.

As for the Marders, I suppose the oldest production batches will be sent. Since its successor the Puma got G36'ed in the newspapers, the Bundeswehr has been pressing the Marder back into frontline service, with high priority given to the NATO Rapid Reaction Force, which the Puma was supposed to populate and is now short a heavy IFV.

But at this point, sending old Marders is better than nothing. Attrition has been dreadful even on the Ukrainian side, and there have been recent concerns that even their homegrown industry (remember, the Kharkov-Morozov Design Bureau of T-64, T-80UD and T-84 fame is Ukrainian, even though it fell on hard times after the end of the Cold War) they cannot sustain the humongous burden of repair and maintenance of all those tanks they captured from Russia.

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

So Russia's strategy to freeze Europe into submission and force them to cut off military aid is going very well.

Spoiler for France to send light tanks to Ukraine:

The French Defense Ministry said Thursday it will soon hold talks with its Ukrainian counterpart to arrange for the delivery of armored combat vehicles in what France’s presidency says will be the first time this type of Western-made wheeled tank destroyer will be given to the Ukrainian military.

Discussions will include the delivery timetable and the training of Ukrainian soldiers on the equipment, the ministry said.

Designated as “light tanks” in French, the AMX-10 RC carries a 105-milimeter cannon and two machine guns. It’s primarily designed for reconnaissance missions and has enough armor to protect against light infantry weapons, according to the French defense ministry. They have wheels rather than tracks, allowing it to be more mobile than heavy tanks.

Spoiler for United States and Germany to send Bradley and Marder IFV's to Ukraine:

The US will provide its Bradley Fighting Vehicles while Germany is sending its Marder vehicles, the leaders said Thursday in a joint statement. Germany also will provide Ukraine a Patriot battery — the second headed to the country after the US said last month that it would send one of the powerful air-defense systems.

President Joe Biden discussed the moves in a call with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz Thursday.

“President Biden and Chancellor Scholz expressed their common determination to continue to provide the necessary financial, humanitarian, military and diplomatic support to Ukraine for as long as needed,” the leaders said in the statement.

Not western Main Battle Tanks, but this a pretty notable escalation to send modern western AFV. Even if they're all light for the moment.

Though it's notable that NATO still seems to be going full swing in trying to acquire and then upgrade as many Soviet tanks for Ukraine. I wonder if this is part of a strategy to bypass the logistical hurdle of Ukraine adopting western MBT's, by continuing to send them Soviet derived tanks while sending sophisticated but logistically lighter western IFV's.

It's sort of cathartic to see all this equipment that was made to fight the Russian army finally get to.

There will be a significant amount of seethe on certain parts of the internet if we get to see video of an old Bradley popping a modern Russian tank.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

Well, they better be light tanks, because Ukraine has this biannual phenomenon called rasputitsa that just hates heavy wheeled vehicles (and even the medium ones) that try to wander away from the asphalt roads. We're lucky it's winter and the ground is frozen solid, so the RCR can float on top of the very fertile but also very muddy soil. Tracked, otherwise, remains a wiser choice compared to wheeled, especially if you're hauling several metric tons of armor and serious firepower.

As for the Marders, I suppose the oldest production batches will be sent. Since its successor the Puma got G36'ed in the newspapers, the Bundeswehr has been pressing the Marder back into frontline service, with high priority given to the NATO Rapid Reaction Force, which the Puma was supposed to populate and is now short a heavy IFV.

But at this point, sending old Marders is better than nothing. Attrition has been dreadful even on the Ukrainian side, and there have been recent concerns that even their homegrown industry (remember, the Kharkov-Morozov Design Bureau of T-64, T-80UD and T-84 fame is Ukrainian, even though it fell on hard times after the end of the Cold War) they cannot sustain the humongous burden of repair and maintenance of all those tanks they captured from Russia.

The French AMX-10 RC is only 22 metric tons so...yes? Defo a light tank.

As for the Marder's, I don't think Germany *has* any of the oldest production batches from the 70's to send anymore even in their reserves. And wikipedia indicates they were all being consistently upgraded throughout the 90's for more modern night vision, and received further upgrades when Germany fought in Afghanistan. So I don't think they'd be that far behind American Bradleys in anyway aside from not having quite as much firepower.

While that last point is correct, it's important to remember that there's a lot of post-soviet military industry outside of Russia. Poland and Czech Republic have a lot of ability to have Soviet derived tanks damaged to Ukraine sent to them for repairs/maintenance.

[Renegade334]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

The French AMX-10 RC is only 22 metric tons so...yes? Defo a light tank.

Rasputitsa needs even less than 22 MT to bog down a vehicle, as this picture shows (and, yes, it was in Ukraine). Ironically, the Russians love to harp on how their "ally" General Mud slowed down the Nazis but are quite conspicuously silent over how they, too, got hampered by it during WW2.

As for the Marder's, I don't think Germany *has* any of the oldest production batches from the 70's to send anymore even in their reserves. And wikipedia indicates they were all being consistently upgraded throughout the 90's for more modern night vision, and received further upgrades when Germany fought in Afghanistan. So I don't think they'd be that far behind American Bradleys in anyway aside from not having quite as much firepower.

Not necessarily the oldest of the old, but the oldest on hand, those closest to retirement. And even those shall probably have their more sensitive parts (electronics) stripped down to acceptable levels to prevent the really critical and relevant from falling into enemy hands. And Germany will do that; the US has, after all, downgraded the targeting system in its donated HIMARS and modified the launchers so that it cannot carry and fire the more longer-range rockets like ATACMS, to avoid excessive escalation with Russia (though at this point such reluctance might be waning - the US just allowed Ukraine to upgrade their HIMARS fire control systems to carry out longer-range barrages).

While that last point is correct, it's important to remember that there's a lot of post-soviet military industry outside of Russia. Poland and Czech Republic have a lot of ability to have Soviet derived tanks damaged to Ukraine sent to them for repairs/maintenance.

And there we have a possible problem. Damaged/attrited vehicles do not magically appear in those repair shops; they have been ferried there through what is inarguably the most efficient (and critical) transport system for such supplies: the rail network. Railways and their related facilities (switches, etc), unfortunately, are static and easy to target, especially if you're a belligerent nation festooned with cruise missiles (a dwindling stock, maybe, but not a critically meager one just yet) and kamikaze drones - and, yes, parts of the Ukrainian railway infrastructure are being targeted right now. Also, pulling those vehicles out of the frontline, having them travel nearly the whole breadth of Ukraine to another country and back - without counting the time it takes to complete the repair process itself - does take time that Ukraine cannot easily afford. It's easier to have them repaired closer to the frontlines using regional -even makeshift- repair centers. We've already seen footage of engineers and scrappers scavenging the burned-out husks of destroyed Russian tanks to salvage intact spare parts, but it might not be enough.

Also, the ever-growing weapons ecosystem in Ukrainian hands also causes unexpected issues, such as the absence of dedicated spare parts for units (like, say, the captured BMP-3Ms or 2S19M2s that we've seen) that Ukraine never produced by itself and therefore are not readily fixable, especially with an industry that's constantly being pummeled by enemy fire and suffers regular energy shortage/denial. And I'm not taking into account everything that's been donated by NATO countries like the M109s & al - that's a whole different issue altogether.

[Yu Ominae]

Moscow says a ceasefire will start so that their troops can take it easy and celebrate (Orthodox) Christmas.

Kyiv says no way.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

Moscow says a ceasefire will start so that their troops can take it easy and celebrate (Orthodox) Christmas.

Either:

A) russian troops are so exhausted, depleted and underequipped that they took the opportunity to camouflague their lack of attacks as a "good will gesture".

B) russia will makea massive reposition of troops.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

Rasputitsa needs even less than 22 MT to bog down a vehicle, as this picture shows (and, yes, it was in Ukraine). Ironically, the Russians love to harp on how their "ally" General Mud slowed down the Nazis but are quite conspicuously silent over they, too, got hampered by it during WW2.

To be honest that's just a universal rule for war in that part of the world. Offensive operations in spring and to a lesser extent fall are extremely hampered by ground that normally is great for maneuver warfare turning into a bog. It's a problem no matter what kind of vehicle you're trying to use.

Originally Posted by Renegade334

Not necessarily the oldest of the old, but the oldest on hand, those closest to retirement. And even those shall probably have their more sensitive parts (electronics) stripped down to acceptable levels to prevent the really critical and relevant from falling into enemy hands. And Germany will do that; the US has, after all, downgraded the targeting system in its donated HIMARS and modified the launchers so that it cannot carry and fire the more longer-range rockets like ATACMS, to avoid excessive escalation with Russia (though at this point such reluctance might be waning - the US just allowed Ukraine to upgrade their HIMARS fire control systems to carry out longer-range barrages).

I'm not sure Germany is particularly worried about Russia getting their hands on 90's and early 2000's era electronics on the Marders. There's not really anything in those systems fundamentally more sophisticated or potentially compromising than what NATO has already sent.

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

Moscow says a ceasefire will start so that their troops can take it easy and celebrate (Orthodox) Christmas.

Kyiv says no way.

It's a total coincidink that Russia is declaring cease fire after four months of trying to reenact Verdun in miniature. This a PR game to cover up that they're no longer capable of going on the attack, and to appeal to low effort tankies in the west who can point at Ukraine "violating" a nonexistent cease fire.