Cyprus resists?

[AmeNoJaku]

Originally Posted by willx

Okay, guys, I'm not talking about false statistics. Who here has taken advanced macreconomics courses? Basic macro? How do we measure GDP?

GDP (Y) is a sum of Consumption (C), Investment (I), Government Spending (G) and Net Exports (X – M).
Y = C + I + G + (X − M)

So when a government overspends by borrowing money, even at unsustainable levels, that spending is accounted for in GDP. I'm not saying that Greece's GDP was uniquely inflated. I'm saying the last decade of buoyant global economic growth was overstated. I've made this argument before whenever Bill Clinton talked about presiding over the longest period of economic growth in US History.

THE GROWTH WAS NOT REAL. IT WAS NOT REAL HERE EITHER.

Then why slam it again on the Greek case, VCV made an excellent observation above, that everyone cheated, but only the population of some countries are being punished.

But concerning the GDP... inflating your economy is not always a bad thing, particularly if it accompanied with restructuring measures (that is what helped Western Europe rebuild after WWII)... exactly the opposite policy from what Schäuble and the IMF dictate, and plunged almost every country into a deep recession. I am also not saying that Germany and Japan are the only examples, Iceland and Venezuela have not only avoided collapse, but improved their standard of living with two other radically different models. As for Cyprus, be it not the private sector haircut imposed in Greece, the destruction of its power infrastructure and that communist joke that ruled them, it would be fine like Luxembourg and other tax heavens inside the eurozone. A fifth economic model that can rebuild rapidly outside the current eurozone, but this time with less credible clients.

[sneaker]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Actually, even Germany had to break their own rules during the current history of the EU. It seems not a single nation in the EU actually complied with the strict financial requirements.

In short, everyone lied. And now everyone just wants to duct-tape the EU together and hoping it holds.

No, not everyone lied. Most others did not cook their books, they merely failed to meet the goals the Euro states had set for themselves. The problem with goals is that there is no guarantee that you will actually be able to meet them, just like Greece failed to meet many of its promises. Becoming a successful economy is not simply a decision but a struggle with an uncertain ending.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Then why slam it again on the Greek case, VCV made an excellent observation above, that everyone cheated, but only the population of some countries are being punished.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

@VCV: True, let me remind everyone also that the main argument against Cyprus banking system is money laundering, but comes from countries which banks are more guilty. So should we levy the deposits in Greece, Luxembourg, Germany, Austria, Slovakia, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands because there are more illegal capitals there then Cyprus? Hypocrisy has some limits I think.

So what? Because the others are involved in the same dubious business they are now responsible for Cyprus' or Greece's fate? One gangster demanding help from the others just because of that?
They are not being punished, they are simply bankrupt because of their own decisions. Now they want the others to pay for their mistakes and cry murder when these are not so happy about the idea. Even without the austerity measures they would be in deep trouble. Of course investments into the economy would be nice and have a positive effect - that's a no-brainer - but again, that money is also supposed to come from the others who have their own set of problems. They want their few boom years to continue forever but not pay for it themselves.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

The real economy could start to develop again, now its completely destroyed after three years of "fixing" it. For Cyprus it's even worse because they one-shot it last Friday. Now they will destroy its democracy too should they skip the parliament. In EU (and in theory eurozone) countries are supposed to be equal partners, not colonies. The terms for this "help" sounds more like the occupation loans back in WWII, they also proclaimed to help rebuilding the occupied countries (this is an exaggerated analogy).

But Cyprus and the others don't want to be equal partners. They want money from the other states - no questions asked. The Euro treaties do in no way include any kind of entitlement from the other members - quite to the contrary, they actually rule that out. Cyprus is free to ask for money, but the others are free to set their own demands.

[ganbaru]

Insight: Money fled Cyprus as president fumbled bailout
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92O0TM20130325

As new President Nicos Anastasiades hesitated over an EU bailout that has wrecked Cyprus's offshore financial haven status, money was oozing out of his country's closed banks.

[AnimeFan188]

Bomb explodes at bank in Cyprus:

"Police in Cyprus say masked men tossed a small bomb into a bank that damaged
the entrance. NBCNews.com's Dara Brown reports."

See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/video/nbcnews...8672/#51318672

[AmeNoJaku]

Well, Dijsselbloem (of ESM) pretty much confirmed that deposits are not safe anywhere, next in line are Slovenia, Malta and Luxembourg waiting for the first excuse to destroy them too.

At least there is some rational criticism already within Germany:

• Stubborn and Egotistical: Europe Is Right to Doubt German Euro Leadership
• Cyprus Fallout: Moscow Accuses Euro Zone of Theft -- and Worse
• Lessons from Cyprus: Euro Crisis Poses Grave Dangers to EU Unity

Until now I could find criticism only outside eurozone.

Originally Posted by sneaker

No, not everyone lied. Most others did not cook their books, they merely failed to meet the goals the Euro states had set for themselves. The problem with goals is that there is no guarantee that you will actually be able to meet them, just like Greece failed to meet many of its promises. Becoming a successful economy is not simply a decision but a struggle with an uncertain ending.

Nope they are also lying because, they first violated the treaties, then changed them without having to go through what PIIGS have, and still blame them as being the only violators, and they defend the treaties that themselves first violated. This does not mean that PIIGS are o the right either, but it would be the easiest thing in the world to support them instead of sending them the IMF to finish them off.

Originally Posted by sneaker

So what? Because the others are involved in the same dubious business they are now responsible for Cyprus' or Greece's fate? One gangster demanding help from the others just because of that?
They are not being punished, they are simply bankrupt because of their own decisions. Now they want the others to pay for their mistakes and cry murder when these are not so happy about the idea. Even without the austerity measures they would be in deep trouble. Of course investments into the economy would be nice and have a positive effect - that's a no-brainer - but again, that money is also supposed to come from the others who have their own set of problems. They want their few boom years to continue forever but not pay for it themselves.

Look, unless you are referring to the few crooks from Siemens that escaped persecution by fleeing in Germany and the US, even I don't think that the majority German or Greek politicians and their advisers are equivalent to gangsters... I genuinely believe that all this misery they have inflicted is for the best... I just happen to disagree with their predictions and faith in that a deep recession is the best thing for PIIGS.

Originally Posted by sneaker

But Cyprus and the others don't want to be equal partners. They want money from the other states - no questions asked. The Euro treaties do in no way include any kind of entitlement from the other members - quite to the contrary, they actually rule that out. Cyprus is free to ask for money, but the others are free to set their own demands.

You are completely ignoring though that Cyprus is not allowed to help their own banks, and is forced to loan money from ECB, which is also forced to ask Germany and IMF for a memorandum, which in Cyprus case means destroy all its economy. You are also ignoring that Cyprus banking system worked fine for many years, before and after joining the eurozone, and things started to become problematic when IMF and the German government imposed the haircut of Greek private sector bonds, add to that the fact that Russia loaned with lower interest rates to Cyprus then EU to rebuild their electric network after the accident in Florakis naval base explosion.

It is the easiest thing in the world to put the blame completely on one side, and ignore the context in which the governments in Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Ireland made all these bad decisions that they have. For example, when Cyprus entered the euro it had already this sketchy banking system, but none complained then, it had it even when it joined the EU, but again none cared. Now it has become the excuse to eliminate all its economic activities, and should the deal not go through the parliament end its short lived democracy too.

[Mentar]

My goodness...

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Well, Dijsselbloem (of ESM) pretty much confirmed that deposits are not safe anywhere, next in line are Slovenia, Malta and Luxembourg waiting for the first excuse to destroy them too.

Please excuse my French, but do you really have to parrot this BS? This is highly infuriating.

The Eurogroup didn't "destroy" anything in Cyprus, the Cypriotic banks did that themselves with gambling on superhigh risk investments (Greek bonds) and paying ridiculously high interest rates (close to 5%!) to deposits of highly dubious sources. They were bankrupt before the Eurogroup was even involved.

And what Dijsselbloem said is 100% reasonable. When banks gamble on high-risk investments and fail, they MUST be allowed to default. It is unsustainable and _unfair_ if banks can do this sh*t with impunity and then count on the EU or their states to bail them out. I win, my money, I lose, your loss? You don't see anything wrong with that?

Guarantee small creditors (the <100k folks, we have that), but force huge creditors to choose between safe low-yield or risky hi-yield investments. If you go to a tax haven, be prepared to lose money if things go bad. This is how it's _supposed_ to be.

At least there is some rational criticism already within Germany:[LIST][*]Stubborn and Egotistical: Europe Is Right to Doubt German Euro Leadership

Let me be blunt: Jakob Augstein has inherited the SPIEGEL from his adoptive father Rudolf Augstein, and this is the only reason why this lightweight is given the room to post his nonsense on the site. He is a highly partisan hack and hates Merkel and Schäuble with a passion, so in election year he's writing one opinion piece after the other.

What you consider "rational criticism" is in fact highly partial and irrational nonsense, and he took HUGE flak for it in the German comments (you might want to read the comments on the German site if you can read German).

The article is also chock full of factual errors, as they have been pointed out in the comments, too - for example Merkel never demanded to "punish" the small creditors, as insinuated by Augstein, it's a total fabrication. And as usual, he loves to criticize and assign blame, but completely fails to say what should have been done instead. Should the EU guarantee casino banks' capital unconditionally? With which money? Should the ECB print money freely? Should Germany unconditionally guarantee European debt?

Of course it's true that German standing has suffered during the crisis, but assigning the blame for that on Merkel alone is totally preposterous - a ridiculous oversimplification of a highly complex issue.

That is "rational"? For me, this is a batshit insane and _very_ cowardly hatchet job, and not the first one of this turd, who is completely out of his depth and merely riding on the coattails of his famous father.

Until now I could find criticism only outside eurozone.

This is a rational criticism of Schäuble's excellent and rather clear-eyed prediction he made back in 2010. Turns out that he has been 100% on the mark. We can discuss about it if you want.

I'll try to refrain from commenting on the stuff you wrote in response to sneaker, but when I read insanity like "You are completely ignoring though that Cyprus is not allowed to help their own banks", I doubt that I could maintain any semblance of politeness.

Seriously, man - what's wrong with you?

[AmeNoJaku]

@Mentar: I'd rather not take this to a personal level, I understand that you have very strong feelings over the matter, and obviously as I probably see IMF+Merkel/Schäuble policies as destructive for the EU, not just the eurozone, you see hope in a another kind of Europe, that reminds to many outside Germany the mid-war period. But let me ask for hopefully more calm clarifications here:

1) Leaving aside your personal dislike over the commentator, in a union shouldn't the stronger states support the weaker ones, for example how East German states or California are supported? definitely unlike how PIIGS and Cyprus are "supported". How are the differences (if any) between these cases understood by you... it's one thing to read your newspapers so I won't forget the little German I learned and another to read actual personal opinions. Is this Bavarian/Texan secession ideology becoming more popular? Because now it is Cyprus, tomorrow Luxembourg, but should this policy gain more voters, then even Germany is going to get divided after the EU, and then the whole continent will be left even more vulnerable to culturally foreign elements (assuming Germany is part of the Greco-Roman-Christian-Enlightenment continuum), because except from Schäuble only those who opposite this view are cheering now... say Ridwan

2) Schäuble made a self-fulfilling prophecy back in 2010, another reading is that he worked very hard to make the situation so unstable today.

And yes, I am serious, what's wrong with me is that I think of discussing and understanding radically different opinions doesn't hurt, the opposite actually

PS@Ridwan: No hard feelings, I hope... but on this matter I totally disagree with your point of view, despite being very supportive of your probable arguments against Schäuble's wishful treatment of European Muslims

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

@Mentar: I'd rather not take this to a personal level, I understand that you have very strong feelings over the matter, and obviously as I probably see IMF+Merkel/Schäuble policies as destructive for the EU, not just the eurozone, you see hope in a another kind of Europe, that reminds to many outside Germany the mid-war period. But let me ask for hopefully more calm clarifications here:

So please answer my question from before: How did the EU/IMF/Merkel/Schäuble "destroy" Cyprus? This is what makes me so angry, because it is _ridiculous_ and the root of all evil.

When Cypriot banks pay lavish interest rates for money deposits, then try extremely risky gambles like investment in Greek bonds to somehow earn enough, and then lose their bets, who "destroyed" them, hm?

If you have wealthy parents, live a luxurious lifestyle which you try to finance by maxing out the credit cards you got from them (when Cyprus entered the Eurozone), and then take huge amounts of cash from shady people (Russian offshore banking), start gambling in the casino (purchase of extremely risky Greek bonds), and finally end up being unable to pay the bills, who destroyed you? Your parents, because they force you to sell all your expensive cars, only take over half of your debts, and force you to adjust your lifestyle to poverty until you have to pay back the rest? Who is then to blame for that? Your parents?

If you then come out insulting them, calling them Nazis for daring to force you to quit your country club membership and instead force you to eat at a soup kitchen for a year, are your parents "destroying your life"? Are your parents then trying to "dominate you"?

Yes, the adjustments ARE painful, and yes, they WILL lead to an increase of unemployment or poverty, but WHAT IS THE ALTERNATIVE? Are you seriously thinking that perpetuating this casino banking by simply bailing them out (parents simply writing a cheque) would be a solution? What would you think of parents who actually did that?

The EU _did_ support Cyprus. They could have kicked them to the curb and forced them out of the Euro, by simply doing NOTHING and leaving them to their own devices. Amusingly, many low-information people actually think that this would be the better solution for Cyprus, and that the EU "forced" Cyprus to endure the humiliation. No, sir - it was Cyprus who was desperate to stay in the Eurozone in the end. Their bluff was called, and suddenly all those impossible conditions were no problem anymore.

What Europe needs right now is a dose of accountability and responsibility. And OF COURSE this doesn't come for cheap, no matter what the political rat catchers to the right (scrap the Euro!) and the left (print money and bail out everyone!) are saying. Any lasting solution MUST include exactly what Schäuble was writing: A return to responsible budgeting and adherence to the convergence criteria - or at least, a credible effort to get there. Once this is understood, and banks realize that they can destroy themselves if they don't conduct their business in a responsible way, things might actually get better again. Anything else is not credible in my view.

[sneaker]

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Nope they are also lying because, they first violated the treaties, then changed them without having to go through what PIIGS have.

1. Lying is knowingly stating the untruth, not not meeting a goal
2. Germany and the other northern members don't have to go trough the same as the PIIGS because they didn't bankrupt themselves (yet) and are not requesting money. Also you have shown the development of wages within German since the Euro implementation above, where Germans were the only EU country to even have losses until the start of the crisis while Greece workers had benefited the most. Now people are asking for Germans to pay again.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

and still blame them as being the only violators, and they defend the treaties that themselves first violated. This does not mean that PIIGS are o the right either, but it would be the easiest thing in the world to support them instead of sending them the IMF to finish them off.

"The easiest thing in the world"? Do you know how fucking huge the southern economies are? Germany has already taken on risks topping over a Trillion Euro.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

Look, unless you are referring to the few crooks from Siemens that escaped persecution by fleeing in Germany and the US, even I don't think that the majority German or Greek politicians and their advisers are equivalent to gangsters... I genuinely believe that all this misery they have inflicted is for the best... I just happen to disagree with their predictions and faith in that a deep recession is the best thing for PIIGS.

If it's best for the PIIGS: who knows. But they didn't win the golden ticket when they entered the Euro. What's best for the PIIGS isn't necessarily the best for the northern members which all have their own agendas.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

You are completely ignoring though that Cyprus is not allowed to help their own banks

How so?

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

You are also ignoring that Cyprus banking system worked fine for many years, before and after joining the eurozone, and things started to become problematic when IMF and the German government imposed the haircut of Greek private sector bonds

And how big do you think would Cyprus' losses have been without German aid for Greece? Greece was bankrupt - every creditor should thank Germany and the others that enabled them to get at least part of their money back. Instead of that they're blaming Germany for not paying the complete bill.

Originally Posted by AmeNoJaku

It is the easiest thing in the world to put the blame completely on one side, and ignore the context in which the governments in Cyprus, Greece, Portugal, Ireland made all these bad decisions that they have.

I'm not saying these should be punished, but I don't like the rhetoric that goes "they're not entirely to blame, so the stronger EU members have to support them the best they can", which I strongly oppose. If my neighbor's house gets struck by a lightning and burns down it's not his fault, but I still won't feel any obligation to build him a new house with my money. Fault and obligation are two very different matters.

As to Jakob Augstein:
He's a total asshole. Last year he went on a TV show wearing a Pickelhaube and snotted into a German flag, then went on to show his U.S.-hate. Last year he also made it into the Simon Wiesenthal Center's top ten list of anti-semitic slurs.
That said, there has also been a lot of criticism for the German crisis politics in pretty much every newspaper - those links are nothing new.

Schäuble is a criminal from my POV, but that's a different story...

[Zakoo]

There's one thing sure for me, in the long range, if the euro zone does not evolve, the same problems will continue to emerge. We need to do something about fiscal differences in the euro zone, and strenghten the union, right now we are in a half assed situation where money is the same but economical level, social level, fiscal level aren't the same. It may have worked for 20 years but it might become harder in the future.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Zakoo

There's one thing sure for me, in the long range, if the euro zone does not evolve, the same problems will continue to emerge. We need to do something about fiscal differences in the euro zone, and strenghten the union, right now we are in a half assed situation where money is the same but economical level, social level, fiscal level aren't the same. It may have worked for 20 years but it might become harder in the future.

The whole reason it works this way is because people want to keep their sovereignty.

It's either this, or no EU at all. And right now "no EU at all" is where we are going towards. You are not going to force the creation of a new United States of Europe without voters rebelling all over the continent.

[Ithekro]

They could go for a Confederate States of Europe instead. That model is suppose to have more sovereignty to the states that the Federal model of the United States of America.

[Blaat]

Confederations are unstable (it didn't work nor solved USA post-independence war debt crisis). Furthermore large states or the largest state would have to much clout although that's not much different how currently works. I suppose splitting large states would fix the latter problems but not the former.

[Nightbat®]

I lie, get caught and have to pay the price, I end up with less than I had before

You lie, get caught and have to pay the price,... but you can't afford to pay

..and now you want me to bail you out?




Anybody see a problem here?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Nightbat®

I lie, get caught and have to pay the price, I end up with less than I had before

You lie, get caught and have to pay the price,... but you can't afford to pay

..and now you want me to bail you out?




Anybody see a problem here?

There is no problem. Because if you don't bail me out we would both go down together.

That's what I kept saying. This isn't about helping Cyprus, the EU just isn't ready to cut Cyprus loose as it might harm the EU.

[ganbaru]

Big depositors in Cyprus to lose far more than feared
http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...92G03I20130330

[MrTerrorist]

Crisis offers opportunity to heal Cyprus division

At least the bailout crisis manage to help both sides get closer.

[Bri]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

There is no problem. Because if you don't bail me out we would both go down together.

That's what I kept saying. This isn't about helping Cyprus, the EU just isn't ready to cut Cyprus loose as it might harm the EU.

Exposure of EU banks to Cyprus is fairly limited. The small size and isolation of the Cypriot economy make them a perfect testcase for new bail-in policies. It's not pleasant to say, but the country is not too big to fail, and therefore expendable.

As savings below 100k are now confirmed to be guaranteed, these measures should not lead to unrest in other EU economies out of fear of precedent.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Bri

Exposure of EU banks to Cyprus is fairly limited. The small size and isolation of the Cypriot economy make them a perfect testcase for new bail-in policies. It's not pleasant to say, but the country is not too big to fail, and therefore expendable.

As savings below 100k are now confirmed to be guaranteed, these measures should not lead to unrest in other EU economies out of fear of precedent.

We will see. I am prepared to believe EU letting Cyprus fail only when it happens. Right now it is still an ongoing game of Chicken.

As for the 100k guarantee? That wouldn't matter if it comes with capital controls that stops you from taking out more than 300 Euros a day.

[AnimeFan188]

Bank of Cyprus big savers to lose up to 60 percent:

"Big depositors at Cyprus' largest bank may be forced to accept losses of up to 60
percent, far more than initially estimated under the European rescue package to
save the country from bankruptcy, officials said Saturday.

Deposits of more than 100,000 euros ($128,000) at the Bank of Cyprus will lose
37.5 percent in money that will be converted into bank shares, according to a
central bank statement. In a second raid on these accounts, depositors also could
lose up to 22.5 percent more, depending on what experts determine is needed to
prop up the bank's reserves. The experts will have 90 days to figure that out.

The remaining 40 percent of big deposits at the Bank of Cyprus will be "temporarily
frozen for liquidity reasons," but continue to accrue existing levels of interest plus
another 10 percent, the central bank said."

See:

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/bank-...ose-60-percent