Brexit Vote

[Newhope]

Didn't think this would happen pre-vote, but I am starting to think this might break up the EU.

[Brother Coa]

Originally Posted by Newhope

Didn't think this would happen pre-vote, but I am starting to think this might break up the EU.

Just wait until next year when Marie Le Pen became president of France ( she has more support now than forer and current president ) and Merkel is brought down from power by new right end movement that is slowly rising in Germany ( she already has loose support, everyone predicts that on next elections she is gone ).

From what I read today the president of Netherlands is asking for referendum as well. And for the weekend we will have referendum in Spain for those two rebellious areas. In addition to that Poles are starting to get nervous as well as their foreign minister announced how 'this is not the EU we have entered all those years ago'.

UK is just the begging, others will follow soon it seems.

Putin must have really enjoying his tea this morning.

[Newhope]

If France gets a referendum which is looking pretty likely the EU is done.

[MrTerrorist]

Well that was unexpected.
I hope it doesn't affect the UK economy, make other countries hold their own referendum to leave the EU, another Scottish Independence Referendum and seriously affect it relationship with the whole world.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

Merkel is brought down from power by new right end movement that is slowly rising in Germany ( she already has loose support, everyone predicts that on next elections she is gone ).

Her party the CDU is still far and away the strongest power in polls. Yes, they have dropped by around 8% in polls compared to the result in the elections of 2013, but the new right movement is not nearly enough to topple her. In all likelihood you won't get a scenario in which you can create a government without the CDU. Meanwhile all pro-European parties in Germany combine nearly 60% of the votes.

From what I read today the president of Netherlands is asking for referendum as well.

Geert Wilders is not the president of the Netherlands.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Solace

EU was a good idea doomed by pride.

The refugees crisis have been the proverbial straw. It didn't help that many felt that Merkel, and Hollande, have been telling other countries how to manage it. Leaving many puzzled, especially the former Warsaw Pact countries who think that they didnt join EU for that, and have their voices silenced on the matter.

[Brother Coa]

Originally Posted by Kakurin-san

Meanwhile all pro-European parties in Germany combine nearly 60% of the votes.

That is right now, after this await a year or two and you will see how things fast change.

Geert Wilders is not the president of the Netherlands.

I just saw that, sorry as my country news reports are a bit incarcerate. Anyway we shall see if the president will obliged seeing how majority of population is for referendum.

On another note, I have just read the reaction of Sebastian Kurz said how Europe should reform itself so that this kind of referendums never happens again.

Fascism much?

[Sheba]

Dont use the fascism word so lightly. If anything, I am HOPING that this event would make the others start thinking shit through, because they fucked up as well. Oh, btw, the countries in EU were always independant. Just what kind of narrative people outside EU have been pushing? Just curious.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

That is right now, after this await a year or two and you will see how things fast change.

You are severely underestimating the strength of the centre-left in Germany. Just because the new right is making all the fuss doesn't mean the majority of the country is likely to lean that way. Meanwhile the economic situation in West Germany where the majority of the electorate is located is still far too good for a significant rise of the new right. In West Germany their strength results from protest voters and fear of immigration which caps their potential. Unless there is a sudden economic crash the new right won't rise past 15-20% at the next elections. Germany possesses a strong leftist base with the three left-leaning parties combining around 40-45% minimum. This base won't drop off the EU ship and as I said, unless there is a huge crash this base won't be touched by the new right.

[Brother Coa]

Just be patient, 2 more years of immigration and economic recession will do it's part. If nothing else comes into play in the meantime to speed things up ( and knowing for karma of this world woks something will happen for sure ).

Originally Posted by Sheba

Oh, btw, the countries in EU were always independant. Just what kind of narrative people outside EU have been pushing? Just curious.

You missed entire last year?
Brussels started to push other members and telling them what to do. It's hard to be independent in a Union who will sanction you if you do not follow their demands. That is one of the main reasons why British voted to leave - they do not like to be pushed around.

EU right now is far from the land of dream and opportunity that it was some 10 years ago.

[yulinard]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

Fascism much?

This wont happen if the progressive a bit more patient on pushing their agendas and the left not abandoning their traditional blue collar voters in favor of immigrants and feminist.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Wow, I went and had a nap, only to find out that Leave WON?

... Well, guess one of the comedians got it right, that the UK has a tendency to tell Europe to "Go F*ck itself". And that urge was too powerful to resist.

[Marcus H.]

I'm more afraid about the current actions of Russia now that the biggest voice in the EU against Russian decisions involving other territories have backed out of the EU.

[Sheba]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

You missed entire last year?
Brussels started to push other members and telling them what to do. It's hard to be independent in a Union who will sanction you if you do not follow their demands. That is one of the main reasons why British voted to leave - they do not like to be pushed around.

Started? Brussels ALWAYS did, and one can argue that how they managed the refugee crisis was one of that time when Brits had enough. That's one part of joining an union like EU, where the advantages came with rules. Myself, I am not holding an opinion on whether they should leave or remain, it IS their decision.

[Ithekro]

England and later the United Kingdom use to play the balance of power game in Europe. They never really stopped play it.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

Just wait until next year when Marie Le Pen became president of France ( she has more support now than forer and current president )

That's not going to happen. Not the way our elections are setup.

and Merkel is brought down from power by new right end movement that is slowly rising in Germany ( she already has loose support, everyone predicts that on next elections she is gone ).

From what I read today the president of Netherlands is asking for referendum as well. And for the weekend we will have referendum in Spain for those two rebellious areas. In addition to that Poles are starting to get nervous as well as their foreign minister announced how 'this is not the EU we have entered all those years ago'.

Referendums don't mean the Leave side will win. And that's if those rumors are more than noise anyway.

Originally Posted by Sheba

The refugees crisis have been the proverbial straw. It didn't help that many felt that Merkel, and Hollande, have been telling other countries how to manage it. Leaving many puzzled, especially the former Warsaw Pact countries who think that they didnt join EU for that, and have their voices silenced on the matter.

"Brussels" has never been more than a scapegoat so governments don't have to take responsibility for the policies they put in place and the deals they strike.

Originally Posted by Newhope

If France gets a referendum which is looking pretty likely the EU is done.

If France leaves the EU is done. I don't believe we'll get a referendum any time soon, and even if we do, I don't believe the Leave side will win.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

Brussels started to push other members and telling them what to do. It's hard to be independent in a Union who will sanction you if you do not follow their demands. That is one of the main reasons why British voted to leave - they do not like to be pushed around.

I don't know where you are from, but you don't see to be well-informed about matters concerning the EU and Europe in general. A lot of your statements is simply half-knowledge. As Sheba's said, Brussels regulating is nothing new. Complaints regarding that go back decades. Brussels nowadays isn't regulating / ordering any more than it did a decade ago. What's changed is the overall world climate and the topics at the forefront. Economic troubles, terrorism, refugee crisis etc. The current anti-EU movement is a movement driven by fear which causes people to retreat into their shells thinking everything is better if done alone.

As Anh_Minh has said, Brussels is more or less a scapegoal than the real culprit. Everybody is just unloading their crap onto the EU as an institution you can easily blame with no repercussions. The British see the EU as too regulating and constricting, the French see the EU as too liberal, the Southern Europeans see the EU as a German vehicle of enforcing austerity, the Germans see the EU as vehicle squeezing out Germany for its money etc. etc. The big problem the EU has is a lumbering bureaucracy, a lack of democratic legitimisation and most important of all, the need to balance several diverging interests. The problem is not the EU being some kraken that is swallowing its member states. And the English did not vote leave mainly because of Brussels "pushing them around". Immigration as part of the EU's free movement was a far bigger issue.

[frivolity]

I saw this thread in the morning, clicked on "Leave", and left for work. When I arrived at work, Google listed the voting at 95-5 in favour of Remain (Gibraltar only). Half the office here in Sydney had an eye on the referendum as voting results came trickling in, while half had their eye on the Pound. Leave won and the Pound fell 10%. The whole office ended up having an impromptu discussion about the merits of one-man-one-vote before we all went home for the day.

Had I been a British citizen I would probably have voted Leave too.

[Brother Coa]

Believe me, I know everything about Europe and EU as we are the next in line to be admitted into the Union. I don't know how will that be the case as support for the membership here has fallen from 70% to 43% in the last two years. Never-mind territorial problem we have that EU is pushing us to resolve - all while supporting the other side of the conflict.

I knew EU has pushed other smaller member before - but nothing compared to the last year when they actually threatened members states with economic sanctions and direct cut of founds if they do not listen to them. I have seen that with my own eyes this year as I read news and reports from our neighbours who blocked our path into EU and wouldn't budge.

Two years ago I was all for EU, but since then I have look at the wider picture and see it for what it truly is. Others will follow Britain's steps for sure as the situation is just going to become worse and worse ( EU was fine in the last, but then again in the past you didn't have crisis like Ukraine, pilling of NATO troops in Europe, immigrants that just keep on coming with Turkey holding 3 million more to release, Islamic fanatics who are all out for blood and more.. )

To say that EU will survive next 15 years is to be optimistic at best. They will end up like Rome before them. What's worse world political and historical experts confirm this as well as USA not being a superpower anymore in the next 30 to 50 years.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by LowCholesterol

from the info i get, UK suffers by paying the highest contribution to EU, but they didn't get the equal return. is that right?.

if that true, leave is a better option

I don't know where you got this info, but that's utterly false. The UK's contribution to the EU's budget is on the low side.

If we look at net payment to the EU in 2014 (there is no data for 2015 yet):

In percentage of GDP: 1) Netherlands -0.71% 2) Germany -0.52% 3) Sweden -0.52%
In Euro per Capita: 1) Netherlands -280€ 2) Sweden -240€ 3) Germany -192€
Total value: 1) Germany -15.5 billion € 2) France -7.2 billion € 3) UK -4.9 billion €

In terms of net payment in percentage of GDP the UK ranks tenth behind economic superpowers like Italy or Belgium. In euro per capita the UK ranks ninth. In total terms the net payment of the UK is only 200 million € higher than the Netherlands and 500 million € higher than Italy.

The paymaster of Europe is Germany. By far the highest total value of net payment and ranking third in both percentage of GDP and per capita.