Spice and Wolf II - Episode 4 Discussion / Poll

[Sinestra]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Eh. In the end, a look's only a look. What's bad ass is that, so soon after that mess with the armors, he's willing to put it all on the line again, to keep Horo with him. Not to mention he's betting on his ability to accomplish the impossible with not even a firm idea on the "how".



I think you're misreading the situation a bit. The reason Lawrence went to Amati isn't to ruin him, but to get capital with which to act. And to tie up Amati's own capital so he won't have as much freedom. For Amati, that deal is a mistake: that's why Lawrence provoked him. In the end, all Amati'll really lose out of it is 500 silver trennies. Significant, but it won't bury him. Lawrence hopes that it, in addition to the market crash, will be enough to bring Amati's assets below the 1000 limit.



Yeah... Traveling merchants also have to worry about their names, but to a much lesser extent. Plus, they're expected to jump at every opportunity to make money. They have no store to mind.



"Try harder, idiot."? Or maybe "The info on the assets is one last chance for you... but you'd better succeed, or else."



Heh. He just said that to provoke Amati. If he trusted Horo to tear up the contract, he'd let Amati give him the money, and try to make as much of his own as he could off the bubble, instead of bursting it prematurely. He's frantic precisely because he fears Horo will stay with Amati if he can't keep Amati from getting the 1000 trennies.

Given Lawrences personality regardless of the situation i just never thought he was capable of making a face like that. So bad ass from the way they portrayed his face. We have him seen him angry and frustrated. But iv never seen him just randomly bump into someone then make a face like "bring it"

Ah ok I did misread the situation a bit. But my comment in destroying your enemy was not purely for financial which now i know that Lawrence is not trying to do. But regardless if Lawrence wins he will crush him emotionally. The min I saw Lawrence provoke him I shook my head because i knew it was a bad deal. But i misread the 500 silver trennies so thanks.

Well since Lawrence is hoping to open his own store. I think this lesson hit home for him and ironically enough a lesson that even at his age he needed to taught. I feel he will be better off for it.

I would guess try harder idiot but that would be me assuming that i actually know what Horo feels for Lawrence which i do not. However your second option sounds more like Horo. If he fails Horo might just say your that kind of weak man ouch

I still think somewhere Lawrence does trust her to tear it up. But you cant take the business side out of Lawrence it would be like tearing off a arm. I do believe hes scared but i didn't get the vibe he had no hope. Like in business you always have back up plan just encase your first venture does not work. I think Lawrence is approaching this business like because well that's what hes good at and maybe he doesn't know any other way.

sigh its going to be a long weak of me thinking about all this.

[velvet nightmare]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Of course it's a bubble. And of course everyone knows it'll collapse pretty soon. The trick is to know when. The ones still holding pyrite after that will be the losers. The ones to sell just before the winners.

hence the problem

if everyone knows the market is going to collapse because the value of pyrite is false, then how can there be a bubble in the first place

it's like pulling the pin off a grenade and dropping it at your feet to see what's going to happen

i guess the best answer would be mispricing in the market and it's magnified by the belief that the pyrite is good for fortune telling was it? or something close?

[AKnightWhoSaysNi!]

Ah, good episode. Probably the weakest of the four, but not bad by any means.

Who loved the "HEY YOU, YOU WATCHING THIS, STOP PIRATING THIS SHOW!!!!!111" Message? I got a LOL out of it. Second time it was displayed Mazui added their own version, which was awesome! Personally I would be more impressed with the international interest than mad. Its like free market research! The people want their Horo!

Gotta laugh at Lawrences general stupidity, Horo might as well have left a sign that said "GET UP HERE AND STOP BEING AN IDIOT". But that's just not how he rolls. At least we found out he can make a determined face, while coming up with flimsy plans!

Anyone else find that making a deal with a person you are in competition with, that requires you to surrender half of the funds you need to be ready by tomorrow, for reasons that are both vague and risky... is a BAD idea? Good. Neither does Amati.

"That's right, ITS A DUEL!"
"okay then your on!!!"
"really... um... lets try, GO EAT THOSE NAILS! ITS A DUEL!"
"YOUR ON! SCARF OMNOMNOM... AHHH POINTY!" - my take on their interaction.

I'm thinking two more episodes wraps up this volume. Really really good bits coming up!!!

[Vexx]

ahem.... let them demonstrate how I'll get to decide whether or not I'm going to BUY the f*cking DVDs and then they might have a basis to whine. Besides, these are the broadcast versions.... not DVD rips.

[Filozof]

haha, great episode! Amati was quite shocked when he learned that lawrence knows about the marriage contract, i loved it.
Amati was probably very confident in his inerpretation of lawrence's and horo's relationship, now i think he is starting to sweat a bit.

[TrueKnight]

Whooo good episode. Better than the previous. Lawrence finally grew some steel balls.

Man, Amati is really one sly guy. He knows he’s buying Horo’s freedom from Lawrence but afterwards it’s Horo’s decision to do what she wants, and there’s no guarantee that Horo would follow Amati. Buuut, observing the circumstances, where Lawrence and Horo had a fight, he immediately binds Horo into marriage, exercisable after Horo is free from all liabilities.

Lets see, economic discussion aside, legally the overall transaction looks like a conditional sale and purchase to me,

Spoiler for Umbrella/Main Transaction:

Seller: Lawrence
Buyer: Amati

Transaction’s Object: Horo’s Freedom/Debt

Terms and Conditions:

Buyer:

- Provide 1000 silver in cash by tomorrow at the latest;
- Entitled to request Seller and Seller is obliged to release Horo obligations and liabilities towards Seller. If required by Buyer, Seller shall sign any required documents to do so.

Seller:

- Release Horo from all her obligations towards the Seller, exercised upon delivery of 1000 silver in cash to Seller by Buyer;
- After delivery of the 1000 silver, if required by Buyer, shall sign any supporting documents warranting Horo’s freedom/debt settlement from Seller.

Contract Duration: At the latest tomorrow.

Failure of Payment by Buyer: Contract officially terminated, Horo remains with Seller.

So if 1000 silver is delivered, Horo will become free. If not well Horo remains with Lawrence.

Previously, Lawrence was at ease because there is almost no risk involved in losing Horo where she could choose to stay with him. But now, hahah tough luck man, you’re in a position where you could totally lose Horo with the recently made marriage contract between Horo and Amati, already signed by both, just waiting to be approved by her guardian aka Lawrence and exercised upon delivery of 1000 silver lol.

So Lawrence has to fight to the death where:

- win Horo by crashing the market and making Amati unable to pay 1000 sliver in cash by tomorrow, using the methods as mentioned by the previous posters or any other possible methods; or
- loose Horo completely, but accept 1000 silver cash in return.

Cant wait next ep.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Sinestra

I still think somewhere Lawrence does trust her to tear it up. But you cant take the business side out of Lawrence it would be like tearing off a arm. I do believe hes scared but i didn't get the vibe he had no hope. Like in business you always have back up plan just encase your first venture does not work. I think Lawrence is approaching this business like because well that's what hes good at and maybe he doesn't know any other way.

I think "praying and trying to talk Horo out of it" is very much Lawrence's Plan B. He's not confident at all. Besides, he wants Horo to see him try.

[TrueKnight]

I think Horo is playing safe. Obviously deep inside she wanted Lawrence to win, but due to the event last episode she felt really insecure:

a) She wanted Lawrence to win by telling him how much Amati’s assets are worth in order for him to further calculate his strategies.

b) She’s playing safe by signing the marriage contract, by doing this:

- If Lawrence had somehow won, aka making the market crash, hence making Amati unable to pay 1000 silver, she would felt secure of what she really is to Lawrence because she knew he was fighting all out for her and deemed her more important than 1000 silver;
- If Lawrence somehow lost by receiving 1000 silver, well at least she will be travelling with Amati.

One flaw I could think of from Horo’s plan is that will Amati accept her when he knows that she’s actually a wolf deity and he won’t turn her to the church instead? But I guess she’s smart enough to think about this. If that’s the case then she actually wanted Lawrence to show his love to her by dead-trying and ultimately wins.

[Filozof]

Originally Posted by TrueKnight

Man, Amati is really one sly guy. He knows he’s buying Horo’s freedom from Lawrence but afterwards it’s Horo’s decision to do what she wants, and there’s no guarantee that Horo would follow Amati. Buuut, observing the circumstances, where Lawrence and Horo had a fight, he immediately binds Horo into marriage, exercisable after Horo is free from all liabilities.

did you miss the part where lawrence has the contract in his hands, and when he mentions to amati that horo could tear the contract?

Horo is the sly one here.

edit:
quote of Lawrence during the duel proposal to amati:

"There is the possibility that Horo rips up the contract that she signed with you. Even if you pay back the 1000 silver coins debt, you're relying dengerously on Horo accepting your proposal. My disadvantage is nothing compared to that risk."

[golthin]

Originally Posted by Filozof

did you miss the part where lawrence has the contract in his hands, and when he mentions to amati that horo could tear the contract?

Horo is the sly one here.

edit:
quote of Lawrence during the duel proposal to amati:

edit:
quote of Lawrence during the duel proposal to amati:

exactly, horo is just removing lawrence safety blanket about she refusing the marriage proposal by signing that contract which is still not valid. Even if lawrence fails, she would know he tried to fight for her which is all that she wants. She can still destroy the contract.

[onmyouji]

Originally Posted by Deathkillz

That is also a trait shared between both Lawrence and Amati but Lawrence is fortunate enough that he has close friends to give him hints on where else he could look for help whereas Amati hasn't shown himself to be relying on anyone. In that sense I believe that Amati is more gutsy and natural talented as a businessman than Lawrence (unless his side of the story is shown that says otherwise).

Huh, Amati is more natural talented? Lawrence is fortunate to have close friend?

IMHO, the fact that Lawrence has close friend and connection to help him, actually shows that Lawrence is the better businessman.
You won't succeed as a businessman if you don't have the skill to build relationship with other people. A businessman increase his wealth and opportunity by building his connection (network).

[golthin]

Originally Posted by onmyouji

Huh, Amati is more natural talented? Lawrence is fortunate to have close friend?

IMHO, the fact that Lawrence has close friend and connection to help him, actually shows that Lawrence is the better businessman.
You won't succeed as a businessman if you don't have the skill to build relationship with other people. A businessman increase his wealth and opportunity by building his connection (network).

that fact that amati is so successful without having friends make him talented. imagine if he developes some social skills and how far could he go.

[Darknemo2000]

You should not take social skills as given though. He can never develop them in the future. Like in Valkria Chronicles main guy Welkin is genius at zoology that helps him in battles, but is a total social retard and probably will ever be able to be something more through the rest of his life.

Amiati is better than Lawrence as a singular businessman but Lawrence has better social skills that Amiati may never develop.

If social skills would depend only on time and experience one gathers then Amiati would be a better businessman in long run, but it is not. We don't know if Amiati would be able to form a strong and reliable circle of friends. So while potentially he may be better but actually this is still something unknown.

[Deathkillz]

Yes, but you don't know whether or not Amati would end up like Welkin do you? (unless the novels have already said something about it) and what the heck is "he can never develop them in the future". If life was so certain then I would be a millionaire by now. There's no reason to believe he may not develop social skills as much as he might develop them as long as he changes. If it was 10 years down the line and he is still without friends then that is pretty much *it* for him, but he still has chance to change now.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Deathkillz

Yes, but you don't know whether or not Amati would end up like Welkin do you? (unless the novels have already said something about it) and what the heck is "he can never develop them in the future". If life was so certain then I would be a millionaire by now. There's no reason to believe he may not develop social skills as much as he might develop them as long as he changes. If it was 10 years down the line and he is still without friends then that is pretty much *it* for him, but he still has chance to change now.

I believe what Darknemo means is that it is possible for Amati to never develop social skills - which is certainly true. The possibility is there.

I wonder how socially retarded Amati truly is, though. He was able to use his connections to get Lawrence and Horo a good room in a packed tight town, after all. It's also true that, compared to Lawrence, he hasn't been in business for long. More importantly, he's never needed social connections all that much.

I'm reminded of a book, I think it was title "The return of Santiago", by Mike Resnick.

Spoiler for Return of Santiago:

In it, a bunch of misfits try to resurrect the legend of a bandit who was secretly a revolutionary leader. So they recruit one gifted killer after another. The deadliest men of their time... but none of them work out. In the end, they realize that the one suited to be the new Santiago is the guy who's lead them all this time. He can't really fight, but because of that, he's develop the people skills necessary to convince others to help him. The killers, OTOH, formidable as they were, never needed anyone, so they couldn't run and organization, and if they came across something they couldn't beat on their own (and there's always a bigger fish), well, that was that.

[MeoTwister5]

Watched it a second time to understand just what the hell Lawrence was getting at.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Amati just got played. Hard.

Lawrence managed to convince him to accept the terms of his deal despite Amati's realization that he'd be screwed hard if the market crashes. Lawrence lived up to his surname here, crafty as he was by managing to use an appeal to emotion of Amati's feelings towards Horo to make him brazenly accept the deal. Leave it to a light description of Horo being cute, stubborn and emotional to get the young hot-blooded male down.

From what I can tell Lawrence looks like he's going to try and flood the market with the Pyrite he buys from the alchemists before the rumors start spreading that wheat prices will rise. This is a smart move since he's introducing pyrite from an outside source into an internal environment, effectively increasing the market volume. The increased pyrite volume will artificially inflate the current bubble as it stands further increasing the price. Once the bubble bursts the market crash in prices will be even greater than before. Even if Lawrence barely makes up the 500 he spends Amati will be losing even more in the long run.

Lawrence is running a major Xanatos Gambit on this this which could easily become a Thirty Xanatos Pileup if he fails.

For the love of god I'm getting unhealthily excited over economic theory of all things.

Personally, I'm of the opinion that in business, social graces are a far more important aspect of the trade than personal brilliance. Remember that economics has always been and always will be about the movement of commerce between people. Without people you have no business, no livelihood and well no life. No matter how brilliant you are, if you simply have no idea how to treat people and how to act in front of them with social dignity then no amount of genius or brilliance will make up for it.

9/10

[velvet nightmare]

Originally Posted by golthin

that fact that amati is so successful without having friends make him talented. imagine if he developes some social skills and how far could he go.

he's talented because he's that much younger than lawrence and able to amass a respectable amount of assets

[Ninjacat]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

Personally, I'm of the opinion that in business, social graces are a far more important aspect of the trade than personal brilliance. Remember that economics has always been and always will be about the movement of commerce between people. Without people you have no business, no livelihood and well no life. No matter how brilliant you are, if you simply have no idea how to treat people and how to act in front of them with social dignity then no amount of genius or brilliance will make up for it.

9/10

Indeed, in business it's not who you are, it's who you know. Lawrence manages to form bonds with most people he meets.

Amati's brilliance might very well be his downfall. He never felt the need to depend on people. I suspect Amati's not used to the concept of defeat eighter...

[MeoTwister5]

And doesn't Amati come from a rich family? It's possible he took some of the family assets with him which would give me a larger startup sum for his business than what Lawrence would have had.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

Watched it a second time to understand just what the hell Lawrence was getting at.

Personally, I've come to the conclusion that Amati just got played. Hard.

Lawrence managed to convince him to accept the terms of his deal despite Amati's realization that he'd be screwed hard if the market crashes. Lawrence lived up to his surname here, crafty as he was by managing to use an appeal to emotion of Amati's feelings towards Horo to make him brazenly accept the deal. Leave it to a light description of Horo being cute, stubborn and emotional to get the young hot-blooded male down.

From what I can tell Lawrence looks like he's going to try and flood the market with the Pyrite he buys from the alchemists before the rumors start spreading that wheat prices will rise. This is a smart move since he's introducing pyrite from an outside source into an internal environment, effectively increasing the market volume. The increased pyrite volume will artificially inflate the current bubble as it stands further increasing the price. Once the bubble bursts the market crash in prices will be even greater than before. Even if Lawrence barely makes up the 500 he spends Amati will be losing even more in the long run.

He's only getting 1000 trennies' worth of pyrite. It's like in that movie with Eddie Murphy, where he plays a bum who becomes a stock broker or something. When they yell "I sell", so that everyone around them will do the same. At some point, someone will say "Well, enough playing around, time to cash it in and buy wheat." And everyone will follow because no one wants to be stuck with the pyrite. Lawrence's hoping to be that someone to make sure the bubble bursts in time for Amati to not get enough.

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

And doesn't Amati come from a rich family? It's possible he took some of the family assets with him which would give me a larger startup sum for his business than what Lawrence would have had.

Some pocket money, maybe, but considering his character, I doubt he'd have taken what wasn't rightfully his (as opposed to his family's). And even other merchants like Mark admit he made it on nothing more than his sense for profit - he'd have mentioned a big starting capital.