2017-01-02, 00:51 | Link #21 | |||||
My posts are frivolous
Join Date: Nov 2008
Age: 35
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My own view is that climate change is: real; may or may not have been materially exacerbated by human actions; may or may not be catastrophic in the long run; very unlikely to be reversible using current green technology; may or may not be reversible with future green technology; and very likely to be prohibitively costly for developing countries to take any steps to address.As seen from what I've written, the short answer is that I know climate change is happening, but I don't know whether human actions cause it, and I don't know how costly it will be to solve it. Akuma's response is that anyone who denies or finds uncertainty in climate change is like denying or finding uncertainty in gravity, so the point of my vomit is to show that there is indeed a great deal of ambiguity on the topic, such that a more balanced treatment is needed when it comes to research and policy. The vomit was not aimed at proving that climate change is a hoax, but to show that there is a lot of questionable data manipulation being carried out behind the scenes in attempting to prove the climate change alarmist position, and in attempting to assert its non-existent consensus among the scientific community. Because of that, I do not attempt to bring up scientific research papers since I am not an expert in the field, and I probably wouldn't be able to understand the methodology sufficiently. What I can say, however, is that the intellectual dishonesty being shown by climate change alarmists is something that should get most people's antennas up. By the way, the WSJ article isn't actually hidden by a subscriber wall. There are ways around to get around it after all Quote:
All of the listed signers have formal educations in fields of specialization that suitably qualify them to evaluate the research data related to the petition statement. Many of the signers currently work in climatological, meteorological, atmospheric, environmental, geophysical, astronomical, and biological fields directly involved in the climate change controversy.The newspaper articles about cooling in the 1970s showed that the media and the public of that time were highly afraid of an incoming ice age, and all of a sudden they're now afraid of global warming. One scientist was an ice age alarmist in the 70s and is now a global warming alarmist. Imagine how disastrous it would have been if governments in the 70s and 80s jumped onto the ice age bandwagon and instituted policies in an attempt to warm the Earth! What would happen if scientific opinion shifts back towards the possibility of an ice age again in 50 years? Simply going forward with policies without having full knowledge of the situation at hand is not the way to go about it. Quote:
The point I'm making is, once again, that a great deal of questionable manipulation is being carried out in order to tip the evidence for one side of the story. This does not invalidate the evidence in favour of climate change, of course, but what it does mean is that a more independent system is required, whereby scientific research and publications are being treated equally, rather than being pre-judged on the basis of how closely they fit a desired narrative. I studied that same stuff too up to high school, and I agree 100% that the Earth is extremely complex and very difficult to understand. However, I disagree with your view that we should start going into disaster mitigation mode. In my view, before we mitigate any disasters, we first need to find out what sort of disaster we're preparing for, as well as the likelihood of it occurring. This sort of information is very important because otherwise we risk devoting too much resources into preparing for a disaster that won't occur, or even preparing for the wrong disaster. To be very clear, I'm not saying that we should not make preparations for disasters with low probability of occurrence. The point is about the degree of resources that should be devoted to it instead of being put to other uses that could be more beneficial in terms of saving or improving lives. Quote:
By my count, that makes four of us in the politics threads (both of us plus Vallen and risingstar). Quote:
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Last edited by frivolity; 2017-01-02 at 01:34. |
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2017-01-02, 01:01 | Link #22 | |||
Index III was a mistake
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Sydney, Australia
Age: 32
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I know your position; that's why I didn't bash your position but rather the "evidence" you gave. A lot of your position is actually pretty spot on. We cant stop what's about to happen but at least we can limit the range of possibilities and scenarios as much as possible. Perhaps vomit was a bit rude but I find quoting walls of text (with parts enlarged) rather obnoxious. Quote:
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Last edited by OH&S; 2017-01-02 at 01:49. Reason: expanding a bit |
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2017-01-02, 02:02 | Link #23 | |||
My posts are frivolous
Join Date: Nov 2008
Age: 35
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2017-01-02, 02:21 | Link #24 | |
Index III was a mistake
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Sydney, Australia
Age: 32
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The media just sucks at reporting science. Like really sucks. They have a habit of falsely balancing scientific arguments rather than just looking at the evidence (this just as true for both sides of the climate debate as it is for vaccination and anti-vaccination "debate"). They are far more concerned about headlines.
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2017-01-02, 03:47 | Link #26 | ||
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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I'd expect them to continue along the current policies, at least publicly or to simply not say anything. Politics was never a field in which you wield a hammer, smash everything that doesn't pleases you and then expect to build your utopia from the ruins. For either democrats or republicans, changing something in the long-term takes time. Trump wants to revert many of Obama's policies, but if the president elect keeps squabbling with the president then it's a terrible image sent internationally. |
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2017-01-02, 08:20 | Link #29 |
Carbon
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Individualists reject man made climate change, because they abhor the thought that people should be accountable for anything
Christians, at least some denominations, reject climate change altogether, because they fear that environmentalism somehow drifts into Paganism
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2017-01-02, 09:56 | Link #30 |
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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It doesn't really matter whether you want to split hairs about scientific discussion or discussion involving science. Yes they're not the same but that hardly matters in this context. There's a reason why I put 'scientific' in quotes, as this discussion was nothing more than quoting sources without understanding the thought process behind them and then quoting them again in bigger size.
If you really have to use the whole block again, just link to the post instead. To come back to the topic of climate change, your sources or at least what you quoted of them don't say anything about whether or not climate change is at least partially man made or not, they only argue that it isn't as large as assumed. Climate change is real and will be a problem in the future, all four of us agree on that. |
2017-01-02, 13:33 | Link #31 | ||
Sekiroad-Idols Sing Twice
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There's a point where scientific evidence overwhelmingly leans in one direction to the point the onus is on the one trying to prove it the other way, and they haven't. There are politics involved in the issue, but they need to be how to address the fact of anthropogenic climate change (Jill Stein's plan actually went further than Bernie Sanders', IIRC), not trying to politicize facts the same way many cigarette deniers now deny ACG. In realizing this, they've moved to goalpost "we don't know," and obfuscation is all they need when the public doesn't know any better. Of course, 97% consensus on ACG among scientists who expressed a position on ACG is a lot better than 47%(now I'm actually being politically smarmy with that Romney number)
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2017-01-02, 16:05 | Link #32 | ||
My posts are frivolous
Join Date: Nov 2008
Age: 35
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This is, in fact, the thought process in the sources that I quoted. It was not about validating or invalidating the scientific theory itself, since this is not a science thread. It's about demonstrating that the scientific community is not as clear cut and dry about the issue as the media narrative makes it out to be. As such, the distinction between a discussion about science and the politics of science does in fact matter in this context. The reason why I re-quoted the text in bigger size is because Akuma's response to my second post was already addressed in the post itself. The sources that I quoted aren't even giving a view on whether climate change is at least partially man-made. That's not the point of those sources. They're giving a view about the scientific community, and pointing out the questionable practices and motivations being carried out. That is the difference between science versus the politics of science. I agree with the view that climate change is real. Whether or not it is going to be a problem in the future is something that I'll need more evidence about before committing to a position. Quote:
Agnotology is the study of how ignorance arises via circulation of misinformation calculated to mislead. Legates et al. (Sci Educ 22:2007–2017, 2013) had questioned the applicability of agnotology to politically-charged debates. In their reply, Bedford and Cook (Sci Educ 22:2019–2030, 2013), seeking to apply agnotology to climate science, asserted that fossil-fuel interests had promoted doubt about a climate consensus. Their definition of climate ‘misinformation’ was contingent upon the post-modernist assumptions that scientific truth is discernible by measuring a consensus among experts, and that a near unanimous consensus exists. However, inspection of a claim by Cook et al. (Environ Res Lett 8:024024, 2013) of 97.1 % consensus, heavily relied upon by Bedford and Cook, shows just 0.3 % endorsement of the standard definition of consensus: that most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic. Agnotology, then, is a two-edged sword since either side in a debate may claim that general ignorance arises from misinformation allegedly circulated by the other. Significant questions about anthropogenic influences on climate remain. Therefore, Legates et al. appropriately asserted that partisan presentations of controversies stifle debate and have no place in education.
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2017-01-02, 16:58 | Link #33 |
Me, An Intellectual
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UK
Age: 33
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Well if we're gonna go down the route of slinging scientific articles at each other like monkeys with shit, you mind if I join in on the fun?
But if you'd rather take the side of scientists consistently funded by the fossil fuel industry then that's your choice I guess.
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Last edited by Haak; 2017-01-02 at 19:11. |
2017-01-02, 18:20 | Link #34 | |
Sekiroad-Idols Sing Twice
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2017-01-02, 22:21 | Link #36 | ||||
Index III was a mistake
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Sydney, Australia
Age: 32
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All I could do is google the lead author's name and everything started to unravel just from the guy's wikipedia entry. Quote:
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Nothing about him seems credible and I'm convinced that this paper is just a hit piece against Cook's paper with the 97% statistic. Besides, as Haak posted, Cook released a new paper in 2016 saying much of the same thing, except I can actually read it. But these sources also go into detail about Cook's 2016 paper:
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Last edited by OH&S; 2017-01-02 at 22:23. Reason: video |
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2017-01-03, 04:42 | Link #37 | |
RUN, YOU FOOLS!
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Formerly Iwakawa base and Chaldea. Now Teyvat, the Astral Express & the Outpost
Age: 44
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2017-01-03, 05:05 | Link #38 | ||||
My posts are frivolous
Join Date: Nov 2008
Age: 35
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Similar to the WSJ article I linked earlier, there are ways around the paywall if you genuinely want to read it. I'm not going to do your work for you, but I for one was able to locate the full paper within three minutes. Quote:
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One skepticism that lingers for me is Cook's (2016) definition of expert scientific opinion, which he defines as "scientists publishing peer-reviewed research on climate change". He argues that scientists with more papers published on climate change are more likely to endorse the view that humans caused global warming. The problem with such a delineation is that it tends to bias the analysis. This is because scientists whose work goes against the climate change narrative will find it much more difficult to get their work accepted, much like how a Keynesian would find it hard to be accepted to UChicago, or a classical economist to Harvard. I note the comparison of the number of papers in the study versus the number of authors who responded to the self-ratings in Cook (2013). Specifically, Cook calculates that 36.9% of all papers in the sample endorsed AGW, while 62.5% held no position or were undecided. However, when it comes to self-ratings, 62.7% of respondents stated that their papers endorsed AGW, while 35.5% had no position or were undecided. This suggests that there is some level of non-response bias in his findings - those who are passionate climate change are more likely to respond to climate change surveys, while those who are undecided or hold no position prefer not to respond. This goes back to the point I made in my previous post, that what is needed with climate change is a more independent system, whereby scientific research and publications are being treated equally, rather than being pre-judged on the basis of how closely they fit a desired narrative. I note as well that Tor (the one that Cook (2016) is responding to) was acknowledged for helping to provide a comment, which means that he is definitely aware of this new paper. I await Tor's response to it. Quote:
But please, feel free to join in on the fun. OH&S wanted scientific papers to be quoted in my responses, so I obliged. If that's not your preference, then what sort of sources do you prefer?
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Last edited by frivolity; 2017-01-03 at 05:38. |
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2017-01-03, 07:04 | Link #39 | ||||
Me, An Intellectual
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: UK
Age: 33
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Willie Soon - Koch Foundation Christopher Mockton - Hahahahahaha John Cook - ???????? Quote:
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2017-01-03, 08:42 | Link #40 |
Carbon
Join Date: Nov 2003
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House GOP guts ethics panel
http://www.cnn.com/2017/01/02/politi...tee-amendment/ what the fuck. This is cartoon villainy tier. No, This is what fascism looks like.
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