Myanmar military topples civilian govt, declares one-year emergency

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

You must have never heard or read in your life The enemy of my enemy is my friend

Maxim 29: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by aldw

Being pro-west =/= supporting democracy, especially since the US itself more often that not supported coups against elected governments throughout its history, and the whole tie-up between the US and Saudi Arabia and before that the Shah of Iran shows that obedience to US demands always takes priority.

We are now in the 21st century, an era post-collonialism and post-USSR. I would even say that for four years the USA was not part of the "west", but part of the axis of autocrats with putin and xi jinping. With the rise of autocrats inside the USA & EU it is no longer an option to support abroad those kind of governments.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Maxim 29: The enemy of my enemy is my enemy's enemy. No more. No less.

If world leaders really believe that, there would be no USA at all.

-------------------------------------------
Seems the people in Myanmar agree with me that China supports the coup

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9grYFqQE7kE

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

You must have never heard or read in your life The enemy of my enemy is my friend



False equivalency. Here we have an elected president ousted in a coup (yeah, I am waiting for the so called "proof" this election was rigged, probably in the same box where the proof Donald Trump won a second term was hidden). Whether she is nationalist, vegetarian, tsundere, alien or whatever is a red herring. Of course, the moment real proof that she rigs election to stay in power is the moment she stops being pro-west and becomes just another autocrat like those ruling over north korea.

It doesn't work like that man......This is why the US keeps getting burned in its foreign policies and screwing other countries over by the same token. Literally asking for it. Being a popular elected leader =/= Western ally

Hell, this stupid notion that the world revolves around the West, causes nothing but problems and should die already

[Sheba]

Mangamuscle, seriously go to other countries and you'll find out that their foreign problem is NOT always USA or whatever the West is doing. Poland is looking at Russia or whatever Putin want to stick his dick in them is one example. The other example is Japan and China. The Mid-East issues is either Israel or the Chiites vs the Sunnis. Greece is desperate for assistance against Erdogan who make it clear he want a new Ottoman Empire. And I am doing a very gross simplification.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Myanmar politics, like politics anywhere else in the world, is fraught with complexities. The first thing to note about Myanmar is that it's a very diverse country, with more than 130 officially recognised ethnic groups, some of them heavily armed, like the Arakans and Karens. A situation like this calls for strong institutions to hold the centre, otherwise the country will simply break apart, like what has happened to Syria in the past 10 years, or to Yugoslavia in the 1990s.

In Myanmar, that central institution is the military. So, like it or not, if Aung San Suu Kyi wants to hold her country together, the military has to have a role. She would obviously have much preferred to have a military under civilian control, but history is what it is, and she has to work with the cards she's been dealt, rather than wish for cards that will never materialise.

Unfortunately, such an alliance has its costs. The international community is familiar with the Rohingya crisis, but maybe not as familiar with the murky circumstances that triggered the crisis.

The Myanmar military maintains to this day that it was retaliating against attacks on its border outposts by the Arakan rebels in Rakhine state. That very likely did happen. But it's also very likely that the military used the attacks as a pretext to conduct a pogrom in Rakhine, massacring unconfirmed thousands of Rohingya, burning villages, and driving the panicked survivors across the border into Bangladesh, Thailand, Malaysia, and even as far away as Indonesia.

As far as the military is concerned, it's defending Myanmar's sovereignty and unity. And the generals likely realised — to their smug satisfaction — that it won't be them, but rather Aung San Suu Kyi who would be left shouldering most of the blame. That is indeed how things turned out — once the darling of liberal Western press, Aung San Suu Kyi's reputation as a democracy icon is now irreversibly tarnished for not obstensibly standing up to the generals.

The next thing to remember about the military is that its soldiers and generals are Myanmar nationalists. And, just like the Vietnamese, the Myanmar military has a very grudging relationship with Big Brother China just north of its border. On the one hand, the military recognises the need to work with China, because Beijing is the only regional great power willing to support its regime.

On the other hand, it also recognises the threat to Myanmar's interests from relying too heavily on China. And that calculation was likely in the military's mind as it worked towards reopening Myanmar to the world, via "democratic" elections. The generals realised that their country had to at least have the veneer of democracy before they could again engage with the rest of the world, especially the West, and use that as a counter against Chinese influence.

So, in this respect, Aung San Suu Kyi and the military's goals were aligned.

Is she a Myanmar nationalist? Of course she is! She's the daughter of Myanmar's independence hero, Aung San, the founder of Myanmar's military. Ms Suu Kyi has spoken and written about her close ties with the military since childhood.

But being a Myanmar nationalist does not make her anti-West either. She is an Oxford graduate, and she obtained her postgraduate degree at the School of Asian Studies (SOAS) at the University of London. If it weren't for her commitment to the Western ideals of democracy, she wouldn't have endured more than a decade of house arrest in Myanmar.

So, reality is complex and complicated. Aung San Suu Kyi is both pro-Western and an ardent nationalist. The two concepts are not incompatible, just that in Myanmar's context, they result in some ugly costs — the inevitable consequence of the hard truths of governance.

It's the pro-Western journalists, academics and activists who — as usual — make it out as though things are black and white. It's easy to insist that Aung San Suu Kyi rebukes and condemns the military over the Rohingya atrocities when you have nothing at stake personally in the survival of Myanmar as a unified country.

If there's anything to criticise Ms Suu Kyi about, it would be her distinct lack of political vision for her country, when she was briefly in charge. Had she done more to broaden and entrench democratic civilian rule in Myanmar, the military would not have been so bold as to launch a coup. She could have done more to foster economic growth in Myanmar, to the point where the military would realise that it would be far more costly to jeopardise the nascent project through an arbitrary takeover of government.

In any case, all of that is moot. Ms Suu Kyi is no longer in power, and it's doubtful that she would ever return to government either. She's already 75. Another few more years of house arrest would take her close to 80, if not beyond. It's a tremendous pity that she did not groom a successor to ensure the continuation of the democracy movement in her absence.

[Yu Ominae]

AJ has a news program done on the coup in Myanmar.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Woman shot in the head becomes first confirmed fatality among Myanmar protesters

Yangon (Feb 19): A 20-year-old woman who was shot in the head last week as police tried to disperse protesters died has died, her brother said.

"I feel really sad and have nothing to say," Ye Htut Aung said, speaking by telephone.

Her death was confirmed by the hospital where she was being treated.

Mya Thwate Thwate Khaing had been on life support since Feb 9, when she was hit by what doctors said was a live bullet at a protest in the capital Naypyidaw.

She is the only protester to be killed since the start of the coup, and has now a household name across Myanmar. Her plight has also gained international attention.

Military spokesman-turned-deputy information minster Zaw Min Tun confirmed this week that she had been shot, and said authorities will continue to investigate the case.

CNA

It should be noted that while the Myanmar security forces have opened fire several times in the past few days, reports suggest that they were mostly shooting rubber bullets, or even resorting to slingshots to disperse demonstrators. It remains entirely possible, though, that live rounds were also used.

Personally, I suspect a soldier or policeman may have fired a live round into the air, and the round eventually fell and hit the woman in the head by chance. The woman was reportedly wearing a helmet or hard hat at the time, so the round was likely travelling at a deadly velocity.

It's also very significant that, despite grim fears of imminent mass violence on the streets, the military has so far refrained from launching a bloody crackdown. Here's why:

Myanmar military avoiding bloodshed in clear sign of new thinking

Yangon (Feb 18): Fed by the relentless demands of a 24-hour news cycle, media in Myanmar and globally have been waiting with a mix of fascination and dread for a replay of grainy images from 1988 and 2007 etched in collective memory: Lines of infantrymen marching rifles raised towards crowds of civilian protesters, the use of live ammunition, bloodied bodies in the streets.

The wait may be in vain. Two weeks into the Myanmar military's latest war against its own people, it is becoming clearer by the day that another classic Tatmadaw-style crackdown involving widespread coordinated violence is unlikely.

Confronted by the power of globally disseminated livestreamed images and the street fury of Myanmar's Generation Z, the Tatmadaw is adapting fast to the challenges of a very new and more demanding battlefield with new strategy and new tactics.

It appears the generals have every expectation of emerging from the political rubble of their Feb 1 coup with some version of a victory and power firmly in hand.

"Never underestimate just how good the Myanmar military are at what they do," notes a Thailand-based Western military analyst with years of experience monitoring the Tatmadaw. "If you fail to understand that, you're simply burying your head in the sand."

Same tiger, different tactics

Not that the tiger has changed its stripes. In its fundamentals, the Myanmar military remains entirely the same institution of old: The self-appointed guardian of the nation's soul and the sole arbiter of its interests and destiny.

The Tatmadaw continues to hold unflinchingly to its core mission: Forging a united and powerful state through a process of top-down praetorian democracy and force-fed Burmanisation in which the nation's ethnic minorities are gradually assimilated into the ethnic Bamar-dominated national mainstream.

But following a decade-long period of accelerated military modernisation driven by current commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, thinking, tactics and organisation have undergone significant change.

That much has been apparent in its campaigns against ethnic pocket armies around the nation's remote borderlands. In bitter wars with ethnic rebels in northeastern Shan and western Rakhine states, the Tatmadaw has turned to increasingly well-integrated combined-arms campaigns integrating operations between infantry, artillery and air power underpinned by information technology and supported by drones.

A similar capacity for innovation, coordination and willingness to learn on the job is being displayed on today's battlefields in downtown Yangon, Mandalay, Naypyidaw and a score of other urban centres.

Waiting game

Tatmadaw leadership has almost certainly been blindsided by the sheer scale and scope of popular protest which has brought scores of thousands of people from all walks of life onto the streets in a massive campaign of protest and civil disobedience reinforced by an international outcry.

Strikingly, though, the military's nerve, discipline and cohesion have all so far held, and in a sharp break from the reflex violence of 1988 and 2007, top command has opted for a strategy of slow attrition aimed at waiting out the storm and restoring a degree of normality and economic stability as soon as possible.

ASIA TIMES

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

But being a Myanmar nationalist does not make her anti-West either. She is an Oxford graduate, and she obtained her postgraduate degree at the School of Asian Studies (SOAS) at the University of London. If it weren't for her commitment to the Western ideals of democracy, she wouldn't have endured more than a decade of house arrest in Myanmar.

If the West or the outside world were to pressure her into at least making concilatory gestures or remarks towards the Rohingya, something which she could have at least done rather than flat out denying massacres occured or that the Rohingya are implied sub-human, which would jeopardize her standing amongst the populace......You really think she would? In short, you think she is more Burman chauvinist or liberal?

I mean, we see plenty of democracies that are not exactly Western leaning throughout Asia. Democracy really means greater power to the populace, that's it.



Either way, Singapore has unwittingly made an enemy for themselves amongst Burmese youth. So much for buying hearts and minds with investments. Especially investments that are not vital to keeping their country upright.

[Yu Ominae]

https://hongkongfp.com/2021/02/27/vi...military-coup/

Myanmar’s UN ambassador has now broken ranks with the SAC and condemns the coup.

[Cosmic Eagle]

The maniacs really did it. The junta just tried to repeat 1988. Or give their own people this time the Rohingya treatment. Death rate is climbing rapidly.

This is how you get an insurgency, especially if weapons somehow start proliferating there.....something which the Rakhine seperatists would gladly exploit

[TinyRedLeaf]

Now that blood's been shed, things aren't going to end well.

Myanmar army 'surprised' by opposition to coup: UN envoy

New York (March 4, 2021): The UN special envoy for Myanmar said the generals who have seized power in the Southeast Asian nation indicated they do not fear renewed sanctions, though they are "very surprised" that their plans to restore military rule without much opposition is not working.

Christine Schraner Burgener told UN correspondents that the military's "tactic" is to investigate members and leaders of Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for Democracy (NLD) party, prove they committed crimes like election fraud, treason or working with foreigners, and put them in prison.

"And then the NLD will be banned and then they will have new elections where they want to win, and then they can continue to stay in power," she said.

"The army had told me the plan: To threaten the people, to make arrests and then the majority of the people would go home because they have fear," she added, but they've been surprised by the opposition, which has been led by young people.

"I think that the army is very surprised that it doesn't work because in the past, in 1988 and 2007 and 2008, it worked," she added.

During her three years as the UN special envoy, Ms Schraner Burgener said she always warned the Security Council and the General Assembly that a coup could happen because she knew the structure of the government — that the military had the power.

"I always felt she was on a tightrope dealing with the army," she said of desposed civilian leader, Aung San Suu Kyi.

AP

[ganbaru]

U.S. blocked Myanmar junta attempt to empty $1 billion New York Fed account
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-m...-idUSKCN2AW2MD

I am a bit uneasy about this one; I fully understand the idea to block such transaction right after a coup but is it really legal and what stop them to block others foreigns transactions?

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

I am a bit uneasy about this one; I fully understand the idea to block such transaction right after a coup but is it really legal and what stop them to block others foreigns transactions?

Financial regulators do have the authority to freeze blacklisted accounts. If anything, it could be argued that they don't do it often enough, nor with enough rigour. As it were, it took an executive order from the President to enforce the seizure.

It is now clear that the Myanmar military are openly using lethal force against unarmed civilians — it's only the exact number of casualties that cannot be confirmed. And they have toppled the elected civilian government. On both counts, I would say they have absolutely no authority whatsoever to move the assets of the legitimate government of Myanmar.

This, in the meantime, is an encouraging development:

More than 600 Myanmar police join the anti-coup protests

Yangon (March 5, 2021): More than 600 police officers have joined Myanmar's civil-disobedience movement (CDM) against the military regime, with only Rakhine state reporting no protests by officers.

The numbers of police resignations have risen sharply since the violent crackdown in late February.

Officers from the Criminal Investigation Department, Special Branch, Tourist Security Police, Security Police and training depots have left their duties to resist the military regime, according to an officer in Naypyitaw.

He said Special Branch Major Tin Min Tun's participation in the protest movement has had a great impact in police circles.

The major posted on Facebook this week: "I no longer want to serve under the military regime. I have joined the civil servants participating in the CDM."

He also expressed respect for younger protesters who are leading the movement against the regime.

Police participating in the civil-disobedience movement said they would only accept an elected government.

A policeman in Yangon, who joined the protests, said: "I can't stand seeing many people having trouble so a few individuals can be prosperous. I know a seed of sesame cannot make oil, but I chose to leave, telling myself they will lose at least one officer to suppress protesters if I quit."

THE IRRAWADY

[Yu Ominae]

It's been earlier reported that police in Kayah State were the first ones to desert their posts in response tot the coup.

Singapore MOFA is leading efforts to evacuate Singaporeans living in Myanmar.

[Yu Ominae]

Ari Ben-Menashe's recruited by the SAC to serve as their PR man.

His previous clients are Mugabe and Omar Al-Bashir. According to him, the SAC wants to work with the rest of the world that is not China and claim that Suu Kyi was being "swayed" to work with China...

[Allmarduk]

Myanmar until 1989 was officially named Burma. Previously, the military ruled Burma/Myanmar from 1962 to 2010.

[Yu Ominae]

The Union Election Commission (UEC) found that there are alledged cases of fraud that led to the NLD's victory prior to the coup.

There's news suggesting that the UEC may take steps to legally make the NLD disband.

[Yu Ominae]

An arrest was made with two Myanma men for trying to plan an assassination on the Myanma ambassador to the UN after he broke off from the SAC.

[Yu Ominae]

FYI folks. I'm collaborating with a bunch of researchers in studying the presence of weapons used by the Tatmadaw and the various ethnic armed organizations (Myanma official loaded words for the various ethnic rebel forces).