North Korea Situation

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

How did the JSDF allow that to happen? Isn't that their job to shoot down anything that flies over the country unauthorized?

The suspicion is that they currently could NOT reliably shoot down a missile. So they decided not to shoot it down just in case they miss. The NK missile was not going to hit so it was not worth the public relations disaster to have reported that "Japan currently have no real defence against NK missiles."

However, I expect serious political action from today onwards for the construction of a genuine missile defence. The threat is no longer theoretical, but actual. The population expect the government to defend them, that is what Self Defence Force is for.

As you said, people expected a missile defence that still isn't there. And now there will be incentive to make it so finally.

[SeijiSensei]

From the Washington Post:

"Japan’s Patriot Advanced Capability-3 surface-to-air missiles were unable to intercept the North Korean rocket. The PAC-3 system has a range of about 20 miles and can shoot down the missile as it’s on the way down, and Tuesday’s missile landed 700 miles east of Hokkaido.

U.S. Forces Japan declined to comment on why it did not attempt to shoot down the missile."

All this makes China very nervous. They are worried that such provocations will build support for Abe's proposed defense build-up which could include the addition of the more effective Aegis anti-missile systems. Yesterday's overflight will also build momentum for the adoption of the THAAD system by South Korea. China worries that the long-range radars used in THAAD will give the US and its allies a better view into China.

"Beijing’s opposition to THAAD has little to do with the interceptor batteries themselves. Chinese strategists fear that the AN/TPY-2 radar would be able to degrade China’s nuclear second strike capability against the United States by allowing U.S. early warning systems to better discriminate between real and decoy warheads."

http://thediplomat.com/2017/08/china...est-icbm-test/

[TheForsaken]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

How did the JSDF allow that to happen? Isn't that their job to shoot down anything that flies over the country unauthorized?

Correct me if I am wrong, but does Japan have any authority in this case?
After all, the missile didn't go through their airspace.

[Valky]

Originally Posted by TheForsaken

Correct me if I am wrong, but does Japan have any authority in this case?
After all, the missile didn't go through their airspace.

Did you actually read the news?

[TheForsaken]

According to the news, the altitude of NK's missile is over 500 km.
That is considered outer space in every standard and therefore the "airspace" belongs to no one.

[Valky]

True, however, if you ask whether they have authority or not, I'd say they do. Just like any other country in the world, Japan could defend should they feel threatened or for their national interest.

Otherwise, wouldn't that make every country unauthorized to shot down the missiles even if it could directly hit them? Since you know, it's over 500km and you have to wait or aim it to hit when it reach their airspace. That'll be plain suicide, especially when every second is precious since a missile is concerned. Not to mention the current anti-missile defense system is not exactly perfect.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by TheForsaken

According to the news, the altitude of NK's missile is over 500 km.
That is considered outer space in every standard and therefore the "airspace" belongs to no one.

One understands the practical issues. But the population of Japan understandably wouldn't care about that. The population would likely demand some kind of defence upgrade out of this. People don't like to be messaged about an incoming missile on their phones in the middle of the night. It isn't something that can be ignored when it got this far.

[Yu Ominae]

Guess I was fortunate to be in Tokyo during the holiday and not in Hokkaido at the time.

----

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-41091563

Seems that Pyongyang made the ICBM go over Hokkaido on purpose to contain Guam...

[Wigwams]

NK has done its 6th nuclear bomb test.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-n...-idUSKCN1BD0VW

[Blueknight78]

why chine not already full dropped his "NK" support and let all the 'around countries" already do what is needed in this case which is war at this point since the crazy fat dude already showed which he don't want to talk, if they dropp and even announce which they can "support a full war against NK" then this could already made this guy shit his pant and stop playing with dangerous toys, the only reason he still doing what he is doing is because he is trusting on his pact with chine to support then in a war case, if he lost that support and see the "full asia+USA against him then he could already dropped dead and stopped all that shinengans.

as long chine keep being "above the wall" and neither dropp and neither give full support to NK they will keep doing it.

to be fair i'm not saying which only chine is to blame, but the only reason all the others countries are "holding back" is exactly because of chine indecision to stop support this mad man.

and if they are "scare" of others countries take over NK and be a threath all they need is also take a part of the battle and take some part of the "cake".

at the end sooner or later a war gonna start if NK is not put on check and even if chine don't like they have to take a decision and can be worse if it's come too later for them.

[Toukairin]

How long will the Chinese government realize that they have a neighbor who is the equivalent of Manuel Noriega flipping the bird at the superpower (in that old case, the US) who gave him everything? There's only one way to deal with that, especially since sanctions will just never go as far as to cut food and medical supplies no matter how harsh they are.

The suits in Beijing need to sort out the mess they created anyhow even if that means sending their unproven military and shiny new toys in there. Besides, one might argue that North Korean troops have not seen actual combat since 1953. The possibility they may fold against an actual invasion still exists, especially if it's the big brother who lashes the stick out.

[The Green One]

Problem is, invading NK will no doubt make them push the big red button, as a final screw you if nothing else. They will never de-nuke. You either have to destroy and replace them or simply accept that this is how it is now.

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by The Green One

Problem is, invading NK will no doubt make them push the big red button, as a final screw you if nothing else. They will never de-nuke. You either have to destroy and replace them or simply accept that this is how it is now.

The Chinese better find a way to destroy and replace the NK government because, as I pointed out, it has reached a Noriega-type situation that causes trouble for everybody. And if the Chinese claim to be as good as they are with their own military and cyber warfare, then they better find a way to destroy the threat with those.

[TheForsaken]

Why do you think that NK is a threat to China?

[The Green One]

Moreover, why is NK China's responsibility to "fix"?

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by TheForsaken

Why do you think that NK is a threat to China?

Because it's a disrupting factor to both the Chinese economy and national security. As far as people are concerned, the NK government was the one calling China as "a turncoat and [their] enemy" only a few years back.

Let's speak hypothetically. If you're in the US, how would you feel if you learn that Mexico is building nuclear weapons knowing that there's a form of very deep underlying distrust between Americans and Mexicans? I know I wouldn't see that with a good eye if I was an American.

Originally Posted by The Green One

Moreover, why is NK China's responsibility to "fix"?

Because they are the ones who sold nuclear tech to NK just like the US sold nuclear tech to Israel in a different decade. In the end, two monsters have been created, and so the responsibility rests and will continue to stick with the countries that created the current situations.

[Blueknight78]

for me like i told in my previous post chine is not the "only responsable" over NK, but the only one holding "everyone else" to do something, the only reason NK is doing what they are doing is because chine is still "giving support" to NK and still give the possibility in a WW to help defend NK turning the war bigger than what is needed, if chine just finally shut - up the trade lines with nk and announce which they not gonna "support NK in a WW, then i can easy see everything get fixed fast, because or the Nk finally realise which they are in danger cuz will be NK vs almost everyone else, or they will be exterminated in the moment which japan, SK USA and any other country tired of all NK shinnengans and decide to gang bang, NK, they will be erased before even the they can launch the "second nuclear missile, is not that simple and fast to "mass produce nuclear missiles and have all ready to use in a short ammount of time, of course if chine stop to be at the top of wall and be the "indecisive" and the country blocking all others countries to do something, this is the only real problem of chine for me, because they are the ones making the situation be more "complicated" than it was supposed to be.

[MrTerrorist]

I don't see Kim winning this in the end. Either China or US has enough and invade them to end his family's regime or his own Generals might turn on him since he's too much of a nuisance for their country's survival.

[Ithekro]

The question is, how do you break the family's cult of personality? End that and North Koreans and/or their army will take them out.

[GDB]

Originally Posted by MrTerrorist

I don't see Kim winning this in the end. Either China or US has enough and invade them to end his family's regime or his own Generals might turn on him since he's too much of a nuisance for their country's survival.

He's banking on neither country being willing to take the human life toll necessary for it to get to that point. And he's been right up until Trump, who clearly cares more about his ego than human lives.