North Korea Situation

[dragon1412]

Not really a surprise though. People already calling on this long ago; NK have nothing goes in it's favour except Nuclear weapon - asking them to give up on it mean telling NK to give up it's sole card at negotiation.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by dragon1412

Not really a surprise though. People already calling on this long ago; NK have nothing goes in it's favour except Nuclear weapon - asking them to give up on it mean telling NK to give up it's sole card at negotiation.

It is possible, remember the Iran deal, but it would need long and arduous negotiations, but atm the usa has a department of state that is understaffed and a president with the attention span of a goldfish leading an administration in a constant state of chaos.

So you can bet trump can break deals, but creating them? Unless someone else does the deed and brings the document to his desk for him to sign, there is no chance.

It is more likely that the usa will leave nato than trump doing a deal with nk.

[rladls2121]

Really, either way just how much longer the North Koreans will suffer and pain with this kind of hopelessness of so called living while the ones with powers keep prelonging their so called "safety" of its own comfortness with no intentions of sharing with people below them?

[dragon1412]

Originally Posted by rladls2121

Really, either way just how much longer the North Koreans will suffer and pain with this kind of hopelessness of so called living while the ones with powers keep prelonging their so called "safety" of its own comfortness with no intentions of sharing with people below them?

actually while i don't like the guy who is in dictatorship, there is some sense in his action. NK have literally nothing for it except nuke, it's economy is in shambles, the net of relationship with other countries is bad and small, and those who they did link with are either too powerful and trying to use them or those who demand something out of them like US and China, leaving aside US, i don't think China actually care that much about NK. Especially compare to NK neighbor, SK is powerful economics-wise. And except in SK actually don't have great opinion of NK. If they give up nukes, then NK have nothing on table to negotiate even with SK, NK's situations was bad enough to the point they needed food aid. Of course, it's undeniable that the guy in charge want to keep his power only contribute more on it's problem

[mangamuscle]

@dragon1412 You forget to point out that the reason the economy of NK is broke is the same reason behind venezuela's 13,000% inflation, the government has run the economy into the ground and has no intention of changing the status quo. If anything it is obvious Kim wants to rule SK to claim the riches of their economy as him (and ruin that also, but those at the top have nothing to worry).

As things stand, best case scenario is NK invades the south with little bloodshed and then china invades the north in a coup d'état so that the korean economy falls into the chinese sphere of influence but maintains its economical might. Worst case scenario, nukes will detonate.

[Eisdrache]

There is no solution to the situation as long as the Kim family stays in power. NK could offer a more stable Asia and things like reuniting countless families but all of them would require them to open themselves to others and Kim and his goons wouldn't survive that.

It's one small step after another while trying to make as few steps backwards as possible but unfortunately Trump and his circle of idiots went all or nothing in their demands. A strategy that was certain to fail from the beginning.

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

As things stand, best case scenario is NK invades the south with little bloodshed and then china invades the north in a coup d'état so that the korean economy falls into the chinese sphere of influence but maintains its economical might. Worst case scenario, nukes will detonate.

That already happened, it's called the Korean War in 1950-1953. It's exactly the reason why we have this situation now.

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by rladls2121

Really, either way just how much longer the North Koreans will suffer and pain with this kind of hopelessness of so called living while the ones with powers keep prelonging their so called "safety" of its own comfortness with no intentions of sharing with people below them?

What will always be baffling is that North Koreans as people have not shown any will to redirect their anger against their own government for just being utter irresponsible. As far as my knowledge of history stands, royal families have been decapitated and shot for situations that were not exactly as harsh as North Korea's.

[dragon1412]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

What will always be baffling is that North Koreans as people have not shown any will to redirect their anger against their own government for just being utter irresponsible. As far as my knowledge of history stands, royal families have been decapitated and shot for situations that were not exactly as harsh as North Korea's.

There is a cult of personality around Kim. And for better or worse, the NK people do somewhat understand their positions, They are weak economically, their ties with the world are very fragile, and not counting SK, their neighbors actually don't see them in good light. So they do know that the only thing they have to bring on the table is military might. Which is actually quite powerful consider the sheer amount of reserve army they kept. But too bad for them, consider their neighbor is China, Russia, SK, Japan which all have powerful military power on their own, and this is not counting the US who is supposed to involved with this. SO the nuke is the only thing they have to fall on if anything happens

As a matter of fact, the similar issues is also presenting with China, the military threat of CHina is not as high as people thinks, but they are much more powerful economically

[Sheba]

The Kims are screwed the instant they take steps toward a possible end of this situation. Even if they do step down peacefully, people will demand a trial for all the crimes the Kims commited.
Otherwise you end up in uncomfortable situations like in Cambodia where people have former khmer rouges as neighbors and they knows those killed their families, or Talibans coming back in Afghanistan, as if their setbacks were mere slap on the wrist for the sheer misery they inflicted on the Afghani. To give a clearer picture of how awkward and terrible the situation in those countries are, imagine if there were no Nuremberg trials and that Goering and his buddies were living peaceful lives in the neighborhood. North Koreans likely would want none of that if the dictatorship end.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Sheba

The Kims are screwed the instant they take steps toward a possible end of this situation. Even if they do step down peacefully, people will demand a trial for all the crimes the Kims commited.
Otherwise you end up in uncomfortable situations like in Cambodia where people have former khmer rouges as neighbors and they knows those killed their families, or Talibans coming back in Afghanistan, as if their setbacks were mere slap on the wrist for the sheer misery they inflicted on the Afghani. To give a clearer picture of how awkward and terrible the situation in those countries are, imagine if there were no Nuremberg trials and that Goering and his buddies were living peaceful lives in the neighborhood. North Koreans likely would want none of that if the dictatorship end.

So? In a "step down peacefully" scenario, the Kims themselves wouldn't be judged, they'd go into exile. With a lot of money. I'm not saying they'd go for it, I'm saying that any "step down peacefully" proposition that doesn't have that in it is a non-starter. And that if it is what ends up happening, it wouldn't be the first time for a dictature to end like that.

[Key Board]

A Kim "pardon" must be part of any deal for it to happen.

[mangamuscle]

Even if offered, I do not think the Kim family believe it after what happened in Iraq and Libya, Heck, after capitulation the best he can expect is life in prision like Manuel Antonio Noriega (from Panama) got.

The simple truth is that dictators (whether they are called Kim or Assad) will not relinquish power when they have the support they need to continue in power and china is not letting go unless Kim nukes Beijing.

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

The simple truth is that dictators (whether they are called Kim or Assad) will not relinquish power when they have the support they need to continue in power and china is not letting go unless Kim nukes Beijing.

This is where China is arguably weak compared to other superpowers, past and present, when it comes to getting rid of an "ally" that has become unreliable. Noriega is an example of whom the US got rid after he became a problem for everybody, including his bosses in Washington. The USSR murdered Hafizullah Amin in Afghanistan and later sent troops despite the fact that the country was aligned with the Soviets.

Although the path of putting up a puppet leader is not always successful, each attempt usually shows how much a superpower trusts its own intelligence services and black ops units to get rid of a thorn that gets bigger in the side. Sounds to me that the Chinese have none towards their own in solving the North Korean issue.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

Sounds to me that the Chinese have none towards their own in solving the North Korean issue.

It is not for lack of effort. Remember last year Kim ordered the murdering of his brother, so that makes me think there was some kind of attempt by Beijing of installing a new puppet that would be easily accepted by the current leadership in NK.

Also, remember how many times fidel castro said the CIA tried to assassinate him, but at the end of the day is hard to change a dictator without invading first the country. The USA even had to invade grenada (which is a puny nation no matter what metric you use) to enact regime change. For China invading NK to remove kim is a poison pill, the net profit would be negative, they are not about to make the same mistake the USSR made in afghanistan or the USA did in iraq, they are too shrewd for that.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

Also, remember how many times fidel castro said the CIA tried to assassinate him

I heard an amusing story about President Kennedy the other day. JFK notoriously obtained some 1,200 Cuban cigars just before he signed the embargo order banning the importation of Cuban goods in 1962. An associate handed him one of the cigars, and Kennedy paused before lighting it, joking that maybe it would blow up in his face.

[dragon1412]

Originally Posted by Toukairin

Although the path of putting up a puppet leader is not always successful, each attempt usually shows how much a superpower trusts its own intelligence services and black ops units to get rid of a thorn that gets bigger in the side. Sounds to me that the Chinese have none towards their own in solving the North Korean issue.

This will not really work with China, since US and China case is different. Like i said above, China and NK is shared the same issues of standing next to military active neighbors. Sure, they have the most numerous active force in the world, but consider their neighbors are standing at 2nd, 4th, 5th, 7th and 9th, and guess what, US is 3rd and if you counting the reserves, from 1st to 5th are their neighbors with China at 6th. They are actually isn't in a very good positions. The whole island building is more like a show out of their forces, trying to threaten other. But even their nukes are actually isn't at a good position, considered NK also have nukes of their own. If anything, China want NK to get rid of the nukes themselves far more than US, but they need NK to deter US. And NK actually isn't really that trustful of CHina either.

China's army seem numerous, but if you consider the size of their border, discounting the amounts needed to guard the borders, the remains actually isn't that big, more powerful than most others, but it is still at most larger than 1 or 2 of their neighbors. And many do not know, but China's army is also tasked with quelling unrest. The forces China can actually mustered is in reality, far more smaller than what you think. And yes, the people in CN actually don't like their president that much.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by dragon1412

The whole island building is more like a show out of their forces, trying to threaten other.

I'm afraid I don't entirely share your optimism about the South China Sea. Just today we have

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/27/w...l-islands.html

China’s military announced on Sunday that it had dispatched warships to challenge two United States Navy vessels that sailed through waters in the South China Sea that China claims as its own.

The Chinese confronted the American ships and warned them to leave, the Ministry of National Defense said in a statement posted on its website, but other details of the encounter were not immediately clear.

The American vessels — the Higgins, a destroyer, and the Antietam, a cruiser — passed within 12 nautical miles of the Paracel Islands, an archipelago in the northern part of the disputed waters of the South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam.

The chief spokesman for China’s Ministry of National Defense, Senior Col. Wu Qian, said that the United States “gravely violated Chinese sovereignty.”

You can write off events like this as bluster, but eventually there will be some sort of "incident" that will involve Chinese and American naval forces. What happens then is anyone's guess.

[dragon1412]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I'm afraid I don't entirely share your optimism about the South China Sea. Just today we have

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/05/27/w...l-islands.html



You can write off events like this as bluster, but eventually there will be some sort of "incident" that will involve Chinese and American naval forces. What happens then is anyone's guess.

I'm not really optimist towards this issues though, I mean, the fact that China ignore the entire ruling and putting missiles and flying bomber to SCS is already bad enough - it's more like chance and actually chance of war, which is rather unlikely, as i said above, consider that China themselves would crippled even if they managed to won the war, many countries around SCS is already very wary of China, the last thing they needed is to paint a giant target on themselves

China resorted to bullying tactics towards Taiwan for the same issues, like i said, CHina will probably never move their own army 1st because it'd definitely create a coalition against them, that's why they use bullying tactics and show of arms to force the hand of smaller countries, the SCS countries sit down to see the confrontation between CN and US is one thing, but if any "incidents" happened, the numbers that China can mobilize is rather limited, own to it's wide border and social unrest - and they have no natural allies either, maybe they will have allies from some small countries, but the most militant countries will never on their side given their history, no chance whatsoever for NK or SK to assist China, Vietnam won't given their history, and don't count on Russia to help China either, and worse, Russia share extremely wide border with China, so they can't pull armies from the border, and there is also India, which is no less powerful military wise/

Of course this is only apply to Military case, since there is no chance of that, CN resorted to money slap and economics bullying, as shown with Taiwan case, and as much as i don't want to admit this, this is actually effective to a certain extent

What really baffled me is why they are so commited to doing this, i mean, sure, SCS is actually rich in mineral and oils, but compare to China and their rightful sea territories, the amount is barely higher and is share by multiple countries in the area, which is actually not really worth it since 1 wrong move and China will have themselves siced on my many countries, and considered big one like US who is outright conflicted CN in good light with SCS issues, and the chance of Russia assist China should a war happen is extremely minimal, it's not that i don't understand that SCS is really valuable, but the risk of sheer rebound is so great that i don't know why CN risked this

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

You can write off events like this as bluster, but eventually there will be some sort of "incident" that will involve Chinese and American naval forces. What happens then is anyone's guess.

This reminds me off similar military posturing before WWI and then "OMG They Kill Kenny You Bastards!" I mean, they killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria and that was a good enough excuse for war.

This also reminds me how in the GitS TV series they kept saying there was a world war in the southern pacific aka Vietnam war II, back then I thought it was nonsense, but now I can see how it could become a reality.

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by dragon1412

What really baffled me is why they are so commited to doing this, i mean, sure, SCS is actually rich in mineral and oils, but compare to China and their rightful sea territories, the amount is barely higher and is share by multiple countries in the area, which is actually not really worth it since 1 wrong move and China will have themselves siced on my many countries, and considered big one like US who is outright conflicted CN in good light with SCS issues, and the chance of Russia assist China should a war happen is extremely minimal, it's not that i don't understand that SCS is really valuable, but the risk of sheer rebound is so great that i don't know why CN risked this

It is the paradoxal part. China seems so invested in building those military installations in the South China Sea, and yet they don't look keen in deploying troops for a more urgent matter involving the noisy neighbor. Usually, you never see a government showing such stark contrast between 2 foreign policy cases (except for Trump ditching the Iran deal while also being extremely desiring in solving the Korean problem).

I only wish a typhoon to just wipe that military base out.