[Alu]

Originally Posted by Matrim

That's not true, Ooishi describes Rika's death in detail. Apparently she was killed in pretty much the same way as in Tatarigoroshi-hen.

You sure about that or this is a conjecture? We don't see what happens with Keiichi apart from witnessing him being attacked by an angry psycho twin, most likely in his imagination.

The explanation you are putting forward does seem the most obvious...and that's exactly why I don't buy it. Looking at the deaths alone, we might try with other guesses - let's say Onibaba staying alive - gas disaster (assuming it happens in Onikakushi). Or Shion dying - no disaster.

Ah.., you got me on the part where Oishi describes Rika's death with detail.., I guess I overlooked that on episode 15.., however I was positive that her type of death had been similar to what happened in Tatarigoroshi-hen.., since it would make the most sence if I base my previous speculation on it

On the Keiichi status at Meakashi-hen / Watanagashi-hen.., I always speculated that due to his paranoia and on how he became so mentaly unstable by the end of the events.., that that image of Shion was all in his head.., and due to the shock of it.., ended up causing his death.

However like theacefrehley and BakaOnna previously mencioned.., the latest TIP's posted come to comprove this, in which in fact.., ended up beeing as what I posted.

Well, obvious or not.., I was only able to come to the conclusion / possible conclusion that on how Rika dies influences the disaster or not.., after going through and reviewing all the death lists , and note that some are not mencioned on the TIP's.., as what most happened on Onikakushi-hen; hence so many status beeing left "unknown" aswell.

However currently its the only explination I find for something that influences the disaster or not; Onibaba's status seems irrelevant to me.., aswell as some of the other characters (such as doctor Irei aswell for example) on this aspect.

It seems to me and as we saw through the notes of Shion.., that Onibaba did control somewhat part of what happened regarding the curse.., but all and all on more "un-natural aspects" her involvement I belive was none whatsoever.
Hence it wouldn't make sence to place her status.., since again.. on this.. she is irrelevent.

Or should I say.., not as relevant as all the characters I chose to post the status

I still cannot give full support to my speculations.., for alot of the misteries on Onikakushi-hen are still left on the open.
Hence.., I hope that maybe once Tsumihoroboshi-hen progresses we can see if the way on how Rika dies has any influence on the disaster happening or not

Oh.. and Shion seems to die in every arc except one; so far only on Onikakushi-hen we cannot tell.., since her status is "unknown", and I do emphazise "unknown" here
Anyway.., its pretty safe to say that she is not the one who causes any influence to the disaster.

-
Edit :
-

Oki, I went back to episode 15 and reviewed the details on Rika's death in Himatsubushi-hen.

So.., based on what we know from the TIP's and from what we saw on the Episodes ; here is the now Full death status list on all the Arcs currently to this point so far :

Spoiler for length:

On Onikakushi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Missing.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Unknown.

Furude Rika - Status : Unknown.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Keiichi.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Keiichi.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide, death caused to loss of blood / resembles the same death sympthoms as Tomitake Jirou.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Unknown.

*Gas Disaster : Unknown*

On Watanagashi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from multiple pierce wounds over the entire body.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from a pierce wound in the throat area, death very similar to that of Tomitake Jirou's.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: fell from the vertical escape tunnel.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Alive.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Passed away at the hospital. Cause of death: chronic and acute heart failure.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Died by falling off the veranda from her hideout.

*Gas Disaster : did NOT happen*

On Tatarigoroshi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Missing.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Murdered on the shrine compounds.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Great Hinamizawa Disaster.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Dead.
Great Hinamizawa Disaster.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Attempted suicide at local hospital on 1983.08.29
Fell under a severe fever and passed away two days later on November 30, 1983.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Committed suicide at local hospital.

*Gas Disaster : Happens*

On Himatsubushi-hen :

Spoiler:

No specific details on how any of the events on 1983 toke place where given to us.
None except one.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Murdered.
After having been submited to some sort of drug, her abdomen was cut open and her internal organs where pulled out.

According to Oishi's description (episode 15, 17:25 - 17:48) :

" on the same day as the disaster some Senior citizens who where visiting the Shrine discovered her corpse, naked and barefoot.
From what we do know is that she was carried to that place after beeing put into a sputor with drugs,
Where her abdomen was cut open and her internal organs intentionally drawn out. "

Then on Akasaka's flashback, we obtain the following information aswell (episode 15, 20:35 - 20:45).

- From Rika herself :

" this day, on June 1983.. or perhaps a few days after... I will be killed. "

All the previous events from 1979 to 1982 followed the same path through all the arcs.

*Gas Disaster : Happens*

On Meakashi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from multiple pierce wounds over the entire body.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from a pierce wound in the throat area, death very similar to that of Tomitake Jirou's.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: fell from the vertical escape tunnel.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Alive.
As of present day in 2004, alive and well. Currently residing in Shishibone City.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Passed away at the hospital. Cause of death: chronic and acute heart failure.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Died by falling off the veranda from her hideout.

*Gas Disaster : did NOT happen*

As we can now see, Rika's type of Death on Himatsubushi-hen is supposedly equal to that of on Tatarigoroshi-hen.
So far.., the only 2 arcs we know of where the Gas Disaster did occur.