[Alu]

Originally Posted by kj1980

Now we are faced with two variables:

1. The gas disaster does happen
2. The gas disaster does not

Figure out the rule on why this occurs and why not on the other, and you are one step closer to figuring out the whole picture...


Onikakushi-hen (I'll let you decide if the gas disaster happened here or not)
Watanagashi-hen (gas disaster DOES NOT happen)
Tatarigoroshi-hen (gas disaster happens)
Himatsubushi-hen (gas disaster happens)
Meakashi-hen (gas disaster DOES NOT happen)
Tsumihoroboshi-hen (.....let's see and find out)

mmm.. lets see then..
So far we can conclude that (this based on what we know from the TIPS and saw through the episodes)

On Onikakushi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Missing.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Unknown.

Furude Rika - Status : Unknown.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Keiichi.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Keiichi.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide, death caused to loss of blood / resembles the same death sympthoms as Tomitake Jirou.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Unknown.

*Gas Disaster : Unknown*

On Watanagashi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from multiple pierce wounds over the entire body.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from a pierce wound in the throat area, death very similar to that of Tomitake Jirou's.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: fell from the vertical escape tunnel.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Alive

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Passed away at the hospital. Cause of death: chronic and acute heart failure.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Died by falling off the veranda from her hideout.

*Gas Disaster : did NOT happen*

On Tatarigoroshi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Missing.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Murdered on the shrine compounds?

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Great Hinamizawa Disaster.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Dead.
Great Hinamizawa Disaster.

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Attempted suicide at local hospital on 1983.08.29
Fell under a severe fever and passed away two days later on November 30, 1983.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Committed suicide at local hospital.

*Gas Disaster : Happens*

On Himatsubushi-hen :

Spoiler:

No specific details on how any of the events on 1983 toke place where given to us.
None except one.

Furude Rika - "this day, on June 1983.. or perhaps a few days after... I will be killed."

Hence we conclude.. Status : Dead.
Possibly murdered.

All the previous events from 1979 to 1982 followed the same path through all the arcs.

*Gas Disaster : Happens*

On Meakashi-hen :

Spoiler:

Tomitake Jirou - Status : Dead.
Possible suicide / injected with an unknown drug that cause him to carve his fingers into his throat.

Takano Miyo - Status : Dead.
Strangled to death in the mountains of Gifu Prefecture. Corpse was later burned.

Houjo Satoko - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from multiple pierce wounds over the entire body.

Furude Rika - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Cause of death: hemorrhagic shock from a pierce wound in the throat area, death very similar to that of Tomitake Jirou's.

Sonozaki Mion - Status : Dead.
Murdered by Sonozaki Shion.
Cause of death: fell from the vertical escape tunnel.

Ryuguu Rena - Status : Alive

Maebara Keiichi - Status : Dead.
Passed away at the hospital. Cause of death: chronic and acute heart failure.

Sonozaki Shion - Status : Dead.
Suicide.
Died by falling off the veranda from her hideout.

*Gas Disaster : did NOT happen*

-

Now for my own speculation..
Possible reason to as why the disaster happens or not ?

Spoiler:

It seems to me that currently there is but 1 possible link.. for as we do not know in Onikakushi-hen if the disaster happened or not.
(however I am leaning to the fact that it didn't, I cannot support this decision based on any facts)

The possible influencial link I speak of is..

Rika's type of death.

Again.., I stress that since we do not know the outcome on Onikakushi-hen.., the possibility of her type death having any influence on the Disaster can then be compleatly comproved or disaproved.

On Watanagashi-hen / Meakashi-hen Rika takes her own life, this dispite under the circustances of what happened.., she commited Suicide and the disaster did NOT happen.

On Tatarigoroshi-hen / Himatsubushi-hen Rika is found murdered, and as she predicted herself, she would be killed.
The disaster happened.

This is realy just a long shot.., but currently it is was the only connection I could find upon when reading the outcomes..
It definitly lacks alot of detailed support, and unfortunatly I at the moment cannot give such; however.. I am in hope that once Tsumihoroboshi-hen ends we can come to a good conclusion on it.

At least this was worth it just to organize all the death's that toke place through the arcs