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Basically, the court says that the Federal government (Congress specifically) is the body to declare if someone should be barred from holding a Federal office under the Constitution. Though Congress has slacked off on actually, you know, do anything about that since it is still supposed to go to court at some point this year. The timeframe for that might put a ruling before the election, but stalling and appeals might make it after the election. Though I suppose if Trump won the election, and then is barred from serving as President due the Constitution, then his Vice President would be the new President instead.
States have their own laws about what parties can or cannot be on the ballot, and there are laws that limit eligibility by age, citizenship and such. But it seems that States do not have a say in if someone is considered an insurrectionist or traitor under Federal law. Now if that person has done something in the State that barred them from office, they could enact that, but a Federal position in D.C. isn't in any State.
So, the ball is back in the Feds hands on if Trump can or cannot hold a federal office. And they are dragging their feet about it.
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