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Old 2021-12-05, 16:42   Link #7
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 53
Quote:
Originally Posted by ramlaen View Post
This twitter thread is the best rundown of the situation I have seen.

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1466807256285171717

Putin are better explained as driven by compellence/deterrence
I would have to disagree on that important detail. NATO and the EU have never military threatened the USSR/Russia, it has always been the other way around. Any long range weapons are there for retaliatory strikes.

That is not to say that Putin does not want a buffer zone, but not one against military offenses, the one thing he fears the most is the expansion of democracy. Let's face it, Russia is an oligarchy (and the USSR was also one). That is the reason Ukraine is pro-western values, that is why Lukashenko in Belarus lost the election and why Russia has mounted missinformation campaign against the EU for years, watch a few minutes of RT (Russia Today) channel to get what I mean.

So Putin is trying to strong arm Ukraine into submission, but he is failing and painting himself on a corner. The thing is that he is playing the long game, he can have those troops on the border for years, waiting for the best moment to attack while repeating ad nauseum that he has no hostile intentions, just like he did with Crimea.

The thing is, NATO should be worried, the invasion of Crimea has many parallels with the German invasion of the Rhineland and if he gets Ukraine there is no reason to think he would stop at that (for starters, Moldova is neither part of NATO or the EU), remember that:

An appeaser is one who feeds a crocodile — hoping it will eat him last.

BTW, if China gets Taiwan, there is no reason for them to stop at that, the Philippines would give them more control of maritime lines than those scrawny man made islands.
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