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In the end I doubt that any of the atomic bombings had a material effect on the surrender decision other than providing those on the fence with a "convenient" excuse in the form of "let's surrender before our civilization gets wiped off the face of the planet". Japanese cities were already getting eradicated by the firebombings beginning in the second half of 1944. More important to those on the fence was the war entry of the Soviet Union. None of them had any interest in risking the polity getting partitioned like Germany was.
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