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It's official: Japan's population is shrinking

Tokyo (Feb 26, Fri): Japan's population has fallen by nearly one million, according to its latest five-yearly census. It's the first decline since official records began in the 1920s.

The country lost 947,345 people — more than the population of San Francisco — between 2010 and 2015.

The decline of 0.7 per cent to 127.1 million has been predicted by the government annually, but the new statistics confirm the trend.

Only eight prefectures, including the capital Tokyo, saw a population increase, national broadcaster NHK reported. The remaining 39 all saw declines.

Rural areas, especially, are emptying out. Fukushima, the site of the nuclear disaster in 2011, was among the worst hit prefectures. The entire Tohoku region in northern Japan, of which Fukushima is a part, saw a population decline of about 5 per cent.

Fukushima alone saw the largest drop of 115,000 people.


Looming crisis

The overall decline is an indication that — as the nation gets older, and with people having fewer babies at a later age — a demographic crisis is looming.

According to the United Nations, Japan's population is likely to shrink to 83 million by 2100, with 35 per cent of them older than 65. The rapidly ageing population has contributed to a stagnating economy and worries of increasing health costs.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has made it a priority to prevent the population from declining to below 100 million. Experts, however, view that as virtually impossible.

That's because the Abe administration aims to raise the birth rate to 1.8 children per woman, from the current 1.4.

Moreover, Michael Cucek, an adjunct professor in the faculty of the social sciences at Waseda University, told the Guardian that to maintain a population of 100 million, Japan would require 2.1 births per woman.


That shrinking feeling

But Japan is far from alone here.

The UN has also estimated that a total of 48 countries will see their population decline by 2050.

Moldova is expected to lose more than half its population by 2100, the worst decline of anywhere in the world.

But Moldova is tiny. Japan is the third-largest economy in the world. It's a crucial trading partner for the United States and China. How exactly will its declining population affect the wider world?

Looks like we'll start finding out soon.

GUARDIAN, BBC, WASHINGTON POST