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Though on the other hand its still quite improbable for a war to break out between the US a and China. Maybe a proxy skirmish between China and neighbors like Vietnam or the Philippines?
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Oh please no, especially Vietnam. Have you even seen how China rammed one Vietnamese ship some time ago? The Philippines didn't even experience such direct shooing away.
Also, the PH isn't totally well-equipped for armed combat. Despite my grandpa's continuous complaints about the government's actions as "befitting of gay cowards", I feel that the UNCLoS is the only way the Philippines can "fight". I'm that even China won't risk getting sanctioned by the UN for crossing the line over international laws.
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The US would use Australia as a staging ground
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Why Australia? There are much closer countries to China than Down Under.