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Originally Posted by DaFool
I would like to invite eggplant, kj1980, or any other Japan-based forum members (or anyone for that matter) to comment on the peak of 50 new anime series premiering this summer. Is this the maximum size of the bubble right before it is about to pop?
I try to be a little more optimistic. There can be more series, each with fewer episodes, and still be the same or even less than the production capacity of previous years. Case in point: WOWOW's 6-episode series timeslot.
I'd be interesting to speculate on the possible impact not just on anime consumers, but on studios and employees as well. One thing I noticed is that GDH (Gonzo conglomerate) has expanded overseas operations and is now doing general animation co-productions with U.S. and Europe (particularly, France). It has been less of a hardcore anime company recently (maybe all their pantsu and excessive CG finally bit them in the rear...but then again they wouldn't have expanded if they weren't successfull so far)
I read on an MIT anime newsletter that the backing of more corporate funding as well as international coprod money did indeed serve to increase the capacity of the anime industry, resulting in what we see now as more anime. It does not, however, necessarily serve to increase the quality of shows but may instead result in overcapacity. (I would want to argue that more money, allocated correctly usually does result in more quality. However what seems to have happened is just more bigshots saying: produce more, so we can export more. period.) The newsletter also said that back in April 2000 there were 20 new series and April 2002 there were 34 new series. Now this newsletter was published more than 3 years ago and predicted a bubble. Now given a typical exponential / power curve, there is a lag time between peak and fall...and the result is overshoot. I am afraid to say April 2006 may be that max point. It's scary.
This overproduction isn't just with anime...the same with 3D feature films...the peak was sometime in 2005 I think, and I read there were many wannabe studios who didn't make the cut to final production, so the deluge of all these talking CGI animals now are supposedly the best of the lot. Also, didn't the Navarre CEO mention recently that children's animation (age 12 and under) are not doing too well, hence they budgeted more for licensing the hardcore (age 12+) crowd? It just so happens to be a convenient time for Funi because ADV has just cut back on licensing when it used to be king.
I think the trend is global and influences not just Japan and U.S. but the whole animation pipeline. Just last week I received the final roster of my company full-time employees: 25 down from over 50. And contractual employees / artists numbering around 100 instead of 200. Dang, I can feel it everywhere. They say that animation is a cyclical industy...I just realized it cycles really hard
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The point in my theory is that various stats showing that "XXX billion yen market exists in the hard-core otaku market" that were released by many financial research companies like Nomura that are propogating the bubble. In addition, the "Densha-Otoko" phenomena of last year which put in a whole new perspective onto otakus, added with the otaku-esque but charismatic aura put on by Horie Takafumi of livedoor further propelled corporate investments into something that isn't as solid as...say invensting in government bonds and futures.
Sure, Japan's manga market makes up a major portion of our publishing industry. No other country in the world has a publishing industry that strong whose main income and profit comes from comics alone. But the question comes into play - what works in Japan, can it work in a more realistic market such as in America and in Europe? Are proper researches being done to maintain the current speed of shoving anime and manga down people's (otakus') throats?
What is scary is that this scenario all seems to familiar like the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s. Banks lending out money to companies with the promise of multi-billion venture capital, when in reality there is no clear objective. Like you said, otakus themselves are already saying "fifty new stories next season!? That's freaking crazy!!" You are beginning to see web-logs from otakus crying "even if I use all of my HD recorders that I have, I still won't be able to watch all of them!!"
So let's take this into foreigners' perspective.
FIFTY-PLUS NEW ANIME SHOWS NEXT SEASON.
How many fansubbers will be able to do them? Like the otakus here in Japan, one person, or even a group will not be able to do them all. Fansubs are already spread out by many fansubbing groups for various shows.
FIFTY-PLUS NEW ANIME SHOWS NEXT SEASON.
How many fansub viewers will be able to watch all of them? Chances are, they do not have the bandwidth to download all the torrents of all these shows. More likely, HD space itself will become limited along the lines of our otakus saying "our HD recorder spaces will be capped!"
FIFTY-PLUS NEW ANIME SHOWS NEXT SEASON.
What are the chances of the average fansub viewer to drop a promising show in order to keep up with anime that is still airing/will air?
It's becoming more and more like a feast at a ballroom. There are some many good stuff to eat, but no one can eat all of them. In the end, all the good food goes to waste because the food isn't concentrated to one singularity, but is divided among mulitples of people. "Oh shit, I love turkey! And I can have all this for ourselves! Kick-ass!" Works great when there only a turkey on the table. "Holy shit! Now there is pizza on the table too!! Kick-ass!! But we can't eat the whole turkey now." So some of the turkey is left over.
So it comes down to "let's lure in more fans by making anime that fans exist." What you are seeing are shows that are made that are based on doujin games, ero-games and light novels. It's becoming more and more niche. Sure fans of such doujin games, ero-games, and light novels are going to watch the anime of that title. But do they make up a majority to make a good profit? No.
My pessimistic theory is yes: it is about to explode. Unless I am proven wrong, I prefer to continue investing in mutual funds and government issued bonds until then.