[DaFool]

I would like to invite eggplant, kj1980, or any other Japan-based forum members (or anyone for that matter) to comment on the peak of 50 new anime series premiering this summer. Is this the maximum size of the bubble right before it is about to pop?

I try to be a little more optimistic. There can be more series, each with fewer episodes, and still be the same or even less than the production capacity of previous years. Case in point: WOWOW's 6-episode series timeslot.

I'd be interesting to speculate on the possible impact not just on anime consumers, but on studios and employees as well. One thing I noticed is that GDH (Gonzo conglomerate) has expanded overseas operations and is now doing general animation co-productions with U.S. and Europe (particularly, France). It has been less of a hardcore anime company recently (maybe all their pantsu and excessive CG finally bit them in the rear...but then again they wouldn't have expanded if they weren't successfull so far)

I read on an MIT anime newsletter that the backing of more corporate funding as well as international coprod money did indeed serve to increase the capacity of the anime industry, resulting in what we see now as more anime. It does not, however, necessarily serve to increase the quality of shows but may instead result in overcapacity. (I would want to argue that more money, allocated correctly usually does result in more quality. However what seems to have happened is just more bigshots saying: produce more, so we can export more. period.) The newsletter also said that back in April 2000 there were 20 new series and April 2002 there were 34 new series. Now this newsletter was published more than 3 years ago and predicted a bubble. Now given a typical exponential / power curve, there is a lag time between peak and fall...and the result is overshoot. I am afraid to say April 2006 may be that max point. It's scary.

This overproduction isn't just with anime...the same with 3D feature films...the peak was sometime in 2005 I think, and I read there were many wannabe studios who didn't make the cut to final production, so the deluge of all these talking CGI animals now are supposedly the best of the lot. Also, didn't the Navarre CEO mention recently that children's animation (age 12 and under) are not doing too well, hence they budgeted more for licensing the hardcore (age 12+) crowd? It just so happens to be a convenient time for Funi because ADV has just cut back on licensing when it used to be king.

I think the trend is global and influences not just Japan and U.S. but the whole animation pipeline. Just last week I received the final roster of my company full-time employees: 25 down from over 50. And contractual employees / artists numbering around 100 instead of 200. Dang, I can feel it everywhere. They say that animation is a cyclical industy...I just realized it cycles really hard