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I find it hard to trust or condemn a character who has not demonstrated proper motive. Maybe displaying motive in an obvious manner is going to be the death flag for characters, as we saw in Mami's case. In trying to figure out Homura and Kyubey's alignment, I thought I'd start with some observations and go from there. Hopefully they sound neutral to y'all. I'll follow this up with my interpretation.
In Homura's case:
She wanted to prevent contact between Madoka and Kyubey, but stopped pressing the matter after they met.
She wanted to make sure Madoka remembered her message about whether or not she treasured the life she was living.
She intervened after Mami's death before Kyubey contracted with either girl.
In Kyubey's case:
He tries to explain MG'ing to Madoka and Sayaka.
He tries to encourage Madoka to form a contract despite saying he isn't allowed to (see the dream from ep 1 and the sweet talking in ep 3).
Supplemental to Kyubey,
Kyubey's first line about making a MG contract is that he will fulfill "any one of [their] wishes", and he repeats this adding that he can "make miracles happen." He follows this up with the price which is the duty to fight witches.
Mami is the one to caution Madoka and Sayaka against a hasty decision to enter a contract.
Mami and Homura's chat in ep 3 reinforces Mami's line from ep 2 about being irrevocably involved in this magical world when Kyubey has chosen them.
When you look at how Kyubey introduces being a MG to Madoka and Sayaka, he explains the good stuff first and appends it with a short line about fighting witches. It's up to Mami to temper Madoka and Sayaka's excitement despite Mami's own desire to have MGs to partner with. Reading into Kyubey's explanation of where witches and MGs come from (MGs born from wishes, witches born from curses), I think he has the ability to make witches--no middle step--by granting a curse. Since it is explicitly stated how witches are born and since he says this in the same breath as how magical girls are born, this raises a red flag. We have no guarantee that Kyubey or one of his cohorts (if any exist, or a rival even) isn't going around granting curses for people who want naughty things done to other people. If there is a system in place, perhaps he makes MGs until there aren't enough witches, then goes and makes witches until there aren't enough MGs. Considering that MGs seem to be unable to "help people" in the same way that witches can harm them (ie, death), any such system that intentionally generates witches would suggest Kyubey is an immoral existence.
Also, becoming irreversibly involved in the magical world after meeting Kyubey seems to be a rather insufferable fate does it not? Either way, knowing what happens after a Grief Seed is "used up" or what happened to Mami's Soul Gem will probably be a juicy hint. Maybe he just eats those. Little critter looks like a malformed mongoose to me.
As a MG, Homura is already tied into hunting witches regardless of other motivations. If there were no MGs, there would be no force to counter witches who kill/eat people or compel them to suicide or crime. By wanting to prevent new MGs from being born (or maybe only keeping Madoka from becoming a MG), you can derive that Homura either wants to have "less competition" as Mami had suggested or she wants to prevent a wish from being made. Since Homura has shown no issues with killing witches by her own power, I find it hard to argue that she is evil on either point--less competition or preventing a wish with unintended consequences. To reiterate the good point--Homura does not hurt anyone by not allowing new MGs to be born so long as she is strong enough to kill the witches that appear before her, therefore there is no inherent evil in her actions.
Short version for the dyslexic: Kyubey=shady. Homura=nice.
I don't want to go into pasts or futures (or futures that loop to pasts) too much--that's a few too many steps on the game board for me--but those are my thoughts.
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